Replacing binary pass/fail

I was reading https://core20rpg.wordpress.com/2023/02/02/skills-and-story/ and have been listening to Matt Colvile about how their system eschews attack rolls and assumes a hit. They have struck me with an idea and I could use some other thoughts on it.

I already have a skill challenge'esqe system with the outcomes of Success with Perk, Success, Success with a complication, and failure. Instead of a binary success/fail for skills where they have to beat a target number they generally assume to succeed, but with a perk, neutral, or complication.

The reason I have avoided implementing this for single rolls is that I want the system as predictable as possible. When I fail at climbing I want to know what will happen as opposed to every time the Game Master has to come up with a new complication. But I am coming around to the need to be able to fail forward and trust GMs to improv more.

So the system I am envisioning is the player rolls a die, on a crit they succeed with a perk, beating the target number they just succeed, not beating the target number they still succeed but have a complication, and if on a crit fail they fail and a complication is added. This would move the success rate from 50/50 closer to 90/10. And it would require more improv on the GM side to come up with perks and complications. The first one rubs me wrong, but I am unsure how to justify that wrongness.

Any thoughts on how this rebalances the system?