Ravelian spawn date

It's 1656, i'm playing as Elikhand, i finished the consolidation war, disbanded the empire and a significant chunk of Cannor has been converted so i'm quite pleased with my situation... but Ravelian hasn't spawned yet.

I had some events (including one that said that there has been a changed in the ravelian lodges and i lost 1 stab) but the religion hasn't spawned yet.

Is everything still fine or should i be worried?
When is Ravelian supposed to spawn on average and is it possible that i may have done something that will delay\stop it ?