[OC] the results are in for... LVP. LEAST Valuable Player.
While the media may focus on the MVP award and other prestigious honors, reddit has the distinct honor of awarding the LVP trophy. The LEAST Valuable Player. It's a tradition that dates back to 2017, with Monta Ellis winning the trophy in what would be his last year in the league. Other winners include: Jamal Crawford in 2018, Solomon Hill in 2019, Isaiah Thomas in 2020, Aron Baynes in 2021, and Facu Campazzo last season. Notably, most of those players won the LVP and never saw meaningful minutes again.
Who will join that illustrious list? Before we get to that, let's remember the criteria and caveats:
--- Obviously, the worst players in the league are the ones who sit at the end of the bench and don't get any playing time. However, this award focuses on players who log a decent amount of minutes and consequently affected their team's play the most. Simply put: the more you play, the more damage you can do.
--- And that actual "damage" is important. If you're on a tanking team, no one cares about your poor play; it may even be a positive. We also tend to ignore young players (under 21) who are still developing and can't be expected to be solid players yet.
--- Similarly, we don't want to judge players within the context of their salary any more than the actual MVP does. We also do not weigh in injuries either. We want to focus on players' on-court performance instead.
--- We also wanted to note that this yearly column can come across as a little mean spirited, which is not our intention. Even the worst player in the NBA is in the top 99% percentile at their sport and making more money than most of us could dream about. And to be fair, even the worst player in the league probably costs his team only a couple of games. Hardly anyone has a VORP ("value over replacement player") worse than -2, so so they shouldn't be the scapegoat for an entire organization. In many cases, they're simply played too much or played in the wrong role. But when the stakes are this high, it's fair to criticize players or their teams for that negative impact.
So with all that said, let's take a look at the dishonorable mentions and the official top 5.
######(Dis)honorable Mentions
PG (?) Ben Simmons, Brooklyn: 26.3 minutes per game, +0.7 VORP
Remember, the strict rules of the LVP bylaws state that we do not factor contracts into the equation. If we did, Ben Simmons and his $35M price tag would be a landslide winner.
We all know Simmons' issues as a shooter, but the bigger issue is that he's lost his nerve as a slasher and scorer as well. He looks at the rim with the same terrified expression that my toddler does at the "too big" slide at the playground. This year, he only averaged 1.4 free throws per game, no doubt nervous about his ability to convert there (where he’s shot only 43.9%).
So why doesn’t Simmons rank higher on our list? His defense is still solid – graded as a +2.6 in box/plus minus on that end. Being able to do SOMETHING well is a step ahead of others on our actual ballot.
PF P.J. Tucker, Philadelphia: 25.6 minutes per game, -0.5 VORP
Ben Simmons is afraid to shoot – while P.J. Tucker appears disinterested in even trying. Tucker can still hit the corner three (and has hit 39.3% of his threes this year), but he's shown an historically low appetite for them. Despite starting 75/75 games and playing 25.6 minutes per night, Tucker has launched just 3.0 field goal attempts per game and scored just 3.5 PPG.
Tucker has an easy explanation – that's not his job. He's on a team loaded with scorers. His assignment is to lock up people on the other end. However, now at age 37, it’s debatable how good he is at that. The advanced stats are mediocre (-0.3 impact per RAPTOR, +0.1 on BPM), and his limited length and shot blocking (0.2 blocks per game) make it difficult for Doc Rivers to trust him as a smallball center. We decided not to put Tucker in the top five because the Sixers fans here on reddit say that his defense is better than the numbers suggest, so we'll defer to the voters on that front.
SF Dillon Brooks, Memphis: 30.3 minutes per game, -1.1 VORP
Well, at least Dillon Brooks isn't shy about firing away. The problem is: he probably should be. He launched 13.6 shots per game despite only hitting 39.7% from the field and only 32.6% from three. All in all, his 49.4% true shooting is among the lowest marks for anyone who shoots with his volume.
Like our other dishonorable mentions, Brooks is aided by his defense. The advanced stats are mixed on his true defensive value, but the Grizzlies staff does appear to trust him in that role as a defender and agitator. More than anything, what helps Brooks avoid the top five is that it's hard to see much negative "impact" on the Grizzles season (emphasis: regular season, anyway). Despite all the turmoil around the team, they finished with a top 2 seed.
######OUR OFFICIAL TOP FIVE LVP BALLOT
(5) SG Jaylen Nowell, Minnesota: 19.3 minutes per game, - 0.2 VORP
Tim Connelly and the Timberwolves rolled the dice on Rudy Gobert despite already having an All-Star center on the roster. More than that, they also had several big forwards – Jaden McDaniels (a rising defensive star), Kyle Anderson (recently signed), and Taurean Prince (who is at least playable). Essentially, the team would be all set at SF-PF-C.
However, the backcourt remained in doubt. Presumably the team trusted that young Jaylen Nowell would be ready for a breakout. He showed flashes last year as a third-year pro, averaging 19.5 points per 36 and shooting 39.4% from three. Unfortunately, Nowell regressed this past season. His shooting dropped to 28.9% from three, and his limited size (at 6'3") made it difficult for him to guard wings. He's graded as a -1.5 impact on offense and -1.0 on defense according to box plus/minus. There's also a sizable "impact" grade here. Minnesota nearly missed the playoffs and could have benefited from an extra win or two for seeding purposes.
(4) PF Jeff Green, Denver: 19.5 minutes per game, -0.4 VORP
Karl Rove is considered the master of political campaigns, but Mike Malone may be the master of LVP campaigns. After securing a "win" for Facu Campazzo last year, Malone pushed even more nominees this season.
Among them, Jeff Green could be the most viable contender. Playing Green for nearly 20 minutes a night – for 56 total games – didn't yield results. Green seems like a good teammate with an inspiring personal story, but his play (now at age 36) leaves a lot to be desired. He's no longer effective as a stretch big -- in either facet. He only shot 28.8% from 3 this year and his defensive impact was limited (averaging 4.8 rebounds and 0.6 blocks per 36 minutes). If he returns to the NBA next year, he should serve as a Udonis Haslem mentor and not a key member of the rotation.
(3) PG Reggie Jackson, LAC/DEN: 24.4 minutes per game, -0.8 VORP
The Reggie Jackson renaissance with the Clippers started strong, but aged as well as the new Star Wars trilogy. That first full year in L.A., he thrived as a complementary starter and spacer. He took it up another notch in the playoffs, averaging 17.8 PPG and shooting 40.8% from three.
Since then, the decline has been notable. The Clippers' PG depth chart looked strong on paper this year – with Reggie Jackson and John Wall off the bench – but both of them played badly. In fact, they played so badly that BOTH were bought out in midseason. Among the two, we'll pick on Reggie Jackson more because he had been relied on as a starter and 25 MPG performer. Despite playing on a good team, his box plus minus graded him as a -3.6 impact per 100 possessions, among the lowest for any starting PG in the league.
After getting bought out, Jackson joined the Denver Nuggets and pushed his LVP campaign into overdrive. He's struggled as a Bones Hyland replacement, scoring with just 47.6% true shooting percentage. Once again, the advanced stats are ugly: his VORP (value over replacement) is a -0.3 for Denver, a remarkably putrid number for a player who's only logged 16 games. Jackson has always been an up and down player, but this season represented a clear "down."
(2) PF Marcus Morris, L.A. Clippers: 28.1 minutes pe game, - 0.0 VORP
Now 38, LeBron James defies the laws of nature and skews the curve for the rest of the world. We tend to forget that most NBA veterans hit the wall with the suddenness and surprise factor of the Kool-Aid man.
It appears that's the case for Marcus Morris (a year or two after brother Markieff). Marcus was an absolute stud for the Knicks back in 2019, averaging 19.6 PPG and hitting 43.9% from three. Moreover, his strength and toughness made him playable as a smallball stretch center.
This season for the Clippers, Morris hasn't shown any of that value. Despite starting 64/65 games, he's only averaged 11.2 points on a paltry 53.4% true shooting percentage. His athleticism looks sapped, averaging only 4.0 rebounds and 0.3 blocks per game. Either he's cooked (now at age 33) or he's a poor fit for this Clippers roster. Unlike other teams on our list, the Clippers have several other options on the depth chart, which makes playing Morris for 28+ minutes a night even more of a head scratcher. It's a major part of the reason that the team has underachieved and only finished as a 5th seed.
(1) SG Will Barton, WAS/TOR: 17.7 minutes per game, -0.2 VORP
Like many others in our top 5, Will Barton had been a useful NBA player in the past. Just last year, he averaged 15-5-4 for the Denver Nuggets. The media painted his acquisition as a positive for Washington (although Denver fans bit their tongue, knowing that his play had been quietly declining.)
Unfortunately for the Wizards, Barton's decline was anything but quiet this year. He couldn't buy a basket this whole season, shooting just 37.9% from the field overall. He couldn't even crack 40% (39.1) from TWO point range. Barton's slender frame (6'6" 181) also limits his defensive ability, and his playmaking has been muted lately as well. Like Reggie Jackson, he proved his "worth" for two separate teams, stinking it up for Toronto post buy-out. Overall, his on/off was an incredible - 9 according to basketball-reference. After this struggles this year, Barton may struggle to stay in the league.
The biggest question mark for Barton's LVP candidacy is volume. He didn't crack 20 minutes a night and only logged 993 total. Can he truly have as big of a negative impact as a starter like Marcus Morris or Reggie Jackson? It's debatable. Despite the limited minutes, FiveThirtyEight's metrics grade him as a -1.7 WAR (wins above replacement), the worst among our top 5. And you can also argue that the negative impact grade is high as well. Despite strong years from Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma, the Wizards missed the play-in field. The GM who traded for him (Tommy Sheppard) also got fired this past week. That's certainly not all Will Barton's fault, but it's a feather in the cap of his candidacy.
Ultimately, Barton is going to be our LVP. He wasn't on the court often, but his impact was felt. After all, whether you're a "raw stats" LVP voter or someone who uses analytics and spreadsheets -- we can all agree on one thing. Sometimes, in the right circumstances, a fart can stink worse than a poop.
Posted Apr 29, 2023, 12:55 PM UTC · edited