Ukraine’s plan if Russia assassinates Zelenskyy – POLITICO
politico.eu/article/ukraines-plan-volodymyr-z...Posted Aug 1, 2023, 12:52 PM UTC
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politico.eu
Ukraine’s plan if Russia assassinates Zelenskyy
Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.
WASHINGTON — When Volodymyr Zelenskyy was asked whether he was worried by Russian attempts to kill him, he answered he couldn’t afford to be.
“If I were thinking about it constantly, I would just shut myself down, very much like Putin now who doesn’t leave his bunker,” the Ukrainian leader said in an interview with CNN last month. “Of course, my bodyguards should think how to prevent this from happening, and this is their task. I don’t think about it.”
While it’s a question Zelenskyy understandably isn’t eager to contemplate, it’s also one his supporters at home and abroad can’t afford to ignore. Ever since he rebuffed an evacuation offer by telling his would-be American rescuers “I need ammunition, not a ride,” the Ukrainian president has played a key role in mustering international support for the fight against Russia.
No wonder Russian lawmakers and ultra-nationalist military bloggers have formed a chorus demanding he be targeted. Zelenskyy’s status as a symbol of what the West sees as a righteous fight, his ability to beg and berate his allies until he gets his way, his willingness to brazen his way to frontline photo ops and parliamentary appearances — these have painted him with a bullseye.
A few weeks after Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, a top Zelenskyy adviser, Mikhail Podolyak, disclosed there had been at least a dozen serious assassination attempts on his boss by Russian sabotage and intelligence teams, including Chechens and Wagner mercenaries attempting to breach Kyiv’s heavily guarded and monitored government quarter.
Zelenskyy himself reportedly opened a Zoom meeting with U.S. senators shortly after the invasion saying it might well be the last time they would see him alive.
Clearly, the risks now are less than they were in the first chaotic weeks of the war when Russian tanks were bearing down on the Ukrainian capital and few thought the embattled nation would survive. But no one in the Ukrainian government or the country’s parliament doubts the danger remains high.
In March, there were renewed calls for Zelenskyy to be killed after Ukrainian-backed, anti-Putin Russian saboteurs stormed over the border and invaded two Russian villages in Bryansk oblast. Lawmaker Mikhail Delyagin said the “only normal response” to the incident is the “immediate elimination of Zelenskyy.”
Because of the threat looming over his life, Zelenskyy’s overseas visits are planned with the greatest secrecy. Ukrainian officials were left fuming last February when a planned visit to Brussels was leaked three days before his expected arrival, jeopardizing his trip. Similarly, Bulgaria’s government fretted a trip could be canceled last month after details appeared in the press.
And, of course, the Kremlin has a terrifying track record in assassination operations. Think Alexander Litvinenko, a Russian intelligence officer who defected to the United Kingdom, and was poisoned with radiation in 2006, or the failed 2018 Novichok poisoning of Sergei Skripal, a British double agent in Salisbury, England.
Constitutional succession
Given the stakes, and the risk, it is little wonder Ukrainian officials tend to brush off requests to discuss what would happen were Russia to succeed — or they decline to go on the record, worrying the topic appears far too macabre.
And yet, despite the reluctance to publicly engage with the question, there is a plan in place, according to interviews with Ukrainian officials and lawmakers as well as analysts. Indeed, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said as much: “The Ukrainians have plans in place — that I’m not going to talk about or get into any details on — to make sure that there is what we would call ‘continuity of government’ one way or another,” he told CBS news last year.
ImageUkraine’s Parliament chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk | STEPHANE DE SAKUTIN/AFP via Getty ImagesFormally, under the constitution, the line of succession is clear. “When the president is unable to fulfill his duties, the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine [the Ukrainian parliament] takes over his responsibilities,” said Mykola Knyazhytsky, an opposition lawmaker from the western city of Lviv. “Therefore, there would be no power vacuum.”
The chairman of the Verkhovna Rada — Ruslan Stefanchuk, a member of Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party — doesn’t have an especially high trust rating in opinion polls. It is around 40 percent, less than half of Zelenskyy’s. And he’s not popular with opposition lawmakers.
“But I don’t think it matters,” said Adrian Karatnycky, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. “There’s a strong leadership team and I think we would see collective government,” he added.
The governing council would most likely consist of Stefanchuk as the figurehead, along with Andrii Yermak, the former movie producer and lawyer who’s the head of the office of the president, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. Valery Zaluzhny would remain as the country’s top general.
Karatnycky said he would hope to see a role for TV personality Serhiy Prytula, who now runs major charitable initiatives and has a sky-high public trust rating.
“The country has reached a point of very substantial solidarity and national unity, so if something terrible happened to Zelenskyy it would not be as decisive as you might think,” said Karatnycky, author of “Battleground Ukraine: From Independence to the Russian War.”
He noted that Ukraine has created “a well-honed” administrative, military and diplomatic machine. “I don’t want to say that Zelenskyy is hardly irrelevant to this,” he added. “But I think the country’s unity is the indispensable thing.”
System shock
History offers some reassurance, too. Kremlin plotters would do well to read a data-driven paper written by academics Benjamin Jones and Benjamin Olken for America’s National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) on the effect on institutions and war of the 59 assassinations of national leaders that took place between 1875 and 2004. “Assassinations of autocrats produce substantial changes in the country’s institutions, while assassinations of democrats do not,” they concluded.
“Assassination has never changed the history of the world,” British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli confidently pronounced weeks after President Abraham Lincoln was shot dead while watching a play at Washington D.C.’s Ford’s Theater. The assassination indeed had little effect in reversing the reforms of his administration.
In the archetypal example probably at the forefront of Disraeli’s mind on assassination not diverting the course of history, Julius Caesar’s murderers failed in their goal of saving the doomed Roman Republic from dictatorship, but instead only triggered the civil wars that accelerated the seemingly inevitable transition to the imperial system of the Caesars. Admittedly, of course, half a century after Disraeli made his remark, the extraordinary impact of the assassination in June 1914 of the Hapsburg heir, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, was felt across Europe for decades.
Ukraine’s situation is, naturally, particular. With its strengthening democratic institutions, it is far from the decaying Roman Republic, whose days were almost certainly numbered whether the Ides of March slaying was successful or not. And Europe is already at war.
Though Zelenskyy’s death would be a psychological shock, Karatnycky said to gauge the likely impact you need to consider how Ukraine has transformed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
ImageOmar Marques/Getty ImagesPutin’s assault inadvertently helped to forge a new strong sense of Ukrainian nationhood and shape “confident institutions,” he said. The public is united “in terms of its aims,” he added.
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“It is important to remember that the key factors in Ukraine’s struggle against Russian aggression are the resilience of the armed forces, the skill of its command and victories on the front, said Knyazhytsky, the opposition lawmaker. “This is what matters most in terms of Ukraine’s political stability.”
Weakest link
If there’s a weak link in the scenario it’s probably not in Ukraine but among its allies.
Ukrainians have a more balanced view of Zelenskyy, seeing both strengths and weaknesses. While he has been praised for his fine wartime leadership, he has also been criticized for missteps — notably for failing to better prepare for an invasion he thought unlikely. His shutting out of opposition lawmakers now and his thin-skinned brusqueness with even constructive criticism have been noted, as has his tendency to blame others for mistakes.
The international media, by contrast, has been spellbound by Zelenskyy’s charismatic appeal and enthralled by the simple story of David versus Goliath. The Ukrainian president’s transformation from disappointing peacetime leader to — in the hyperbolic words of French public intellectual Bernard-Henri Lévy — “a new, young and magnificent founding father” of the free world, has been startling.
His rhetoric and oratory have captured the hearts of audiences from Washington to London and Brussels to Warsaw. His elimination would likely leave many of those same people stunned and unsure of what to do next. It could add to pressure for negotiations and compromise.
Nonetheless, this isn’t a one-man war. And in Ukraine at least, few doubt that other leaders, just as worthy, would rise to the occasion as they have done since the invasion.
Yaroslav Azhnyuk, a Ukrainian entrepreneur, dismissed the possibility of a Russian assassination as in “the realm of alternative history.” But he said if it did happen, Ukraine wouldn’t miss a beat.
“Zelenskyy is doing his leadership role well in these challenging times,” he said. “However, the sentiment among the absolute majority of Ukrainians is that we will never give up, we will never submit to Russia.”
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So your saying they have a plan.
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I’ll summarise the 3000 word article into one word. Yes.
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Good! I feel better knowing someone at least has a plan. Will it be followed?
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There are not alot of other options.
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[removed]
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It's funny they let Zelensky live when they could've assassinated him without the west caring as much out of arrogance and now he ended up becoming almost the best leader Ukraine could've had to the point he's probably protected by the CIA and other agencies
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Maybe you just overestimate the ability of Russian special services to perform such operations.
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Not really. At the start they absolutely could've which is why Putin himself came out and arrogantly ensured that Zelensky would be untouched. He's probably regretting it right now. Getting rid of Zelensky at the start would've easily destabilized Ukraine for even a week and that would've been enough time for a breakthrough.
But seeing all the other fuck ups by Russia,not assassinating Zelensky seems like a much smaller fuck up in comparison.
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Getting rid of Zelensky at the start would've easily destabilized Ukraine for even a week and that would've been enough time for a breakthrough.
It won't.
Honestly, Zelenskiy wasn't popular here, that he stayed in Kyiv was a big surprise for a lot of people.
Ukraine isn't Zelenskiy, Head of Parliament will just become president in action if he dies and everything will carry on.
That's a one of the pros not to be authoritarian country and have separation of power.
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Eh I don't think so. Even when Russia invaded at first you could see Ukraine took a few weeks to stabilize and push back. If Zelensky got assassinated it would've taken another week,it doesn't have anything to do with popularity but it would still take some time to re organise things with the new leader.
And frankly he's been a pretty good leader atleast for the international image which is what seems to be more important than his national image if I'm being honest. Morale plays a huge role as well and I doubt any new leader would've been as eager to visit the frontlines had Zelensky been harmed.
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At the start they absolutely could've
They tried, like a dozen times.
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Even while Putin was ‘arrogantly ensuring’… Zelensky was getting hit attempts constantly, two three in a day sometimes if I’m not mistaken.
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Wasn't Kyiv full of Russian special force trying to get to Zelensky during the opening phase of the invasion ?
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I saw this documentary once where a sexy Russian spy lady would seduce men and then snap their necks, so like, look out Zelenskyy. She also has a stealth helicopter if im not mistaken
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i also saw one where they got stopped by a moose and squirrel
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XENIA..
I CAN'T BREATHE
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I saw a video where spies were taught how to perform fellatio on a man. A class and all. Russians take thru spying activities seriously.
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Heh my ex coulda used a translated version of that film...
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cocks pistol
No more foreplay
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I mean, they can just spam his position with Kinzels or Shaheds. They choose not to because it's not a great use of limited resources during a war.
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I mean, they can just spam his position with Kinzels or Shaheds.
Do they know it ? They can send a shit ton of that into President Office or Parliament with intent to kill him, of course - but what does this will change ?
They choose not to because it's not a great use of limited resources during a war.
So they can or not ?
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Lol, because Hospitals, residential buildings and grain silos are a better use of rockets?
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They let him live, they could have killed him multiple times. Reason is that killing him means fueling the war and giving the Ukrainians Martyred.
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fueling the war
Everyday shelling, not fuelling war ? Or cruise missiles / suicide drone attacks ? Or active war itself ?
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Probably don't want to make him a martyr.
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This is probably the right answer.
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The statues of him would be so big the shadows would stretch over the borders
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With a war like this I think a few statues of Zelensky popping up will be the least of their problems....
Also as the Ukrainian guy has said, Zelensky was not popular during the early days. Only after he refused to evacuate and gradually started taking on more confident roles such as visiting the frontlines+the western media coverage for months, did he start to become popular in Ukraine.
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It was a personal promise by Putin to then Israel PM Naftali Bennett, who oversaw the peace negotiations, that he would let Zelensky live. Bennett claims that's when Zelensky got out of the bunker and started making big bold speeches.
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Two of the most trustworthy groups around, Russian and Israeli politicians.
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If your flag really represents you, I understand your resentment and reservations. It still doesn't provide justification for such a lie. Why would Bennett make such claims? What does he have to gain? Or Israel? Note this was part of an interview where many issues were discussed.
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To paint himself as an influential broker between nations? To pad his ego/inflate his sense of importance?
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Rumor has it that killing Zelensky was Wagner's job when the war started. Supposedly Russian intelligence then tipped off Zelensky to avoid Progozhin from getting even more powerful. Typical dictatorship stuff.
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They tried it several times, fortunately they failed due to what can be summarized as incompetence.
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Do you have a source for the assassination attempts? Haven't heard anything about this since the invasion started
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_attempts_on_Volodymyr_Zelenskyy
I might find more later, but now I don't have time for it.
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I might be wrong but I think the SOF were there to capture him not to assassinate him. In fact Zelensky only started visiting the frontline after the statement by the then Israeli prime minister on Putin ensuring he won't be harmed. Obviously Russia's words aren't to be trusted but the timing seems pretty matched. If they wanted to they could've probably assassinated or just killed him via a bunch of missile and drone barrages when he was in the frontline multiple times.
I had saved a document about the extent of Russian intelligence on Ukraine which did talk about them having 90% accuracy on intel about where Zelensky will be visiting although it although the % was inflated due to foreign visits being much easier to track. The document got lost because my dumbass didn't save it with a proper name so take it with a grain of salt since it's not like it was verified but I personally believe even if the % is not accurate it's probably still around that area since Ukraine had a lot of moles and corrupted officials even upto the early months of this year.
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You could be right. Though I don't think that Zelenski would be so bald to trust Moscows promises. It doesn't make much sense to trust those who kill your people and have broken promises on several occasions.
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Zelenskyy’s status as a symbol of what the West sees as a righteous fight, his ability to beg and berate his allies until he gets his way, his willingness to brazen his way to frontline photo ops and parliamentary appearances — these have painted him with a bullseye.
Weird, I remember enjoying the photoshops with the bucket and the mop, and the "you must be this tall to enter NATO" sign, but I guess I missed the one with the bullseye.
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That second part is widely not discussed. Never mentioned by Western media, actually. Thanks for sharing.
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Never mentioned by Western media, actually.
I wonder why.. Might be because we are too blinded by the Russian hatred that they are taking the opportunity to cover up any news that would downgrade us from the righteous defenders of liberty and freedom to a side in this war.
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Wtf does any of that change anything ?
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That actually makes it more credible lmao
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History offers some reassurance, too. Kremlin plotters would do well to read a data-driven paper written by academics Benjamin Jones and Benjamin Olken for America’s National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) on the effect on institutions and war of the 59 assassinations of national leaders that took place between 1875 and 2004. “Assassinations of autocrats produce substantial changes in the country’s institutions, while assassinations of democrats do not,” they concluded.
The true TIL
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It makes sense tragedy brings people together. Autocrats have the dilemma of building a successor that might overthrows them, so usually it’s best to keep number 2 unknown to the public.
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while assassinations of democrats do not,
taking this in the context of JFK makes it very funny
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If Russia succeeds in assassinating Zelenskyy I suspect Ukraine would go 'beast mode' on them... If the Russians thought they had problems before they'd really be fucked with most of the Ukrainian population basically out for revenge!
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You're not paying attention, are you? The counteroffensive drove straight up an impenetrable wall. The Ukrainians were in "beast mode".
More drones? That may be more painful, just not sure how much. Most of the drones, aerial and naval, are.destroyed before reaching their targets. Eventually Russia will also figure out where these are produced, and destroy the facility.
What "beast mode"?
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Yeah, keep yapping you Russian shill. Everyone knows you're just talking crap.
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Right. When even Zelensky himself admits the counteroffensive is going slower than expected, I'm a Russian shill talking crap. They were supposed to be in Mariupol within 3 weeks, it's now been 2 months and the front has barely moved. On top of that, in the north, around Kharkov, it's the Russians who have the initiative and are on the offensive. Gaining territory.
The easiest thing to do when reality doesn't align with our beliefs is to attack the messenger.
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'Slowly' isn't the same as an impenetrable wall. Ok yeah they're making heavy going of it. But they are making head way, and they're doing it despite war crimes like blowing up dams. They're taking the time to do it right, rather than racing ahead of their logistics, like the Russians.
As for you.. who would you prefer to win huh?
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The depth of western cynicism leaked out in a couple of high profile pieces in the WSJ and WaPo over the last week or two:
BRUSSELS—When Ukraine launched its big counteroffensive this spring, Western military officials knew Kyiv didn’t have all the training or weapons—from shells to warplanes—that it needed to dislodge Russian forces. But they hoped Ukrainian courage and resourcefulness would carry the day.
They haven’t.
Meanwhile, for the United States and its NATO allies, these 18 months of war have been a strategic windfall, at relatively low cost (other than for the Ukrainians). The West’s most reckless antagonist has been rocked. NATO has grown much stronger with the additions of Sweden and Finland. Germany has weaned itself from dependence on Russian energy and, in many ways, rediscovered its sense of values. NATO squabbles make headlines, but overall, this has been a triumphal summer for the alliance.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/18/ukraine-war-west-gloom/
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Doesn't assassination imply behind the scenes sneakery? Afaik, if you die in a war, it's not an assassination
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A Russian assassination would deprive Ukraine’s war effort of one of its most valuable assets.
I disagree. Zelensky is a stooge with zero value. The only people in Ukraine of value are those managing drones, which they design and operate themselves. Zelensky is worth nothing at all. He has nothing at all to do with the resistance. He is nothing but a clown, juggler, comedian, and grifter.
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He was an actor. An actor is very good at acting, a great trait for a politician. Russia took strongman as the benchmark for a great leader, so they didn't realise how Zelensky could pull the country together at the beginning. Reagan was also an actor, an entertainer, who took down the Soviet empire with diplomacy.
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Honestly, It’ll be in Moscow’s benefit to not assassinate him, so people could realize what a stooge he is and NATO isnt what Ukrainians think about it, they can literally end the war in 24hrs if they wanted to but won’t
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what a shitty fucking article
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In anybody kills Zel, it will be his countrymen.
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