Source
r/sportsbook•
Gooby_3

FanDuel falsifies Same Game Parlay odds

Sportsbook Issue

Their odds do not align with traditional parlay math on Same Game Parlay bets. I created a parlay that should have been valued at about +1250 and was instead valued at +850.

In addition, I had a Same Game Parlay constructed with 3 -110 bets. I replaced one of the -110 bets with another -110 bet and the overall parlay odds changed despite the individual odds remaining the same. It happened with every substitution I made and the odds were different for each one.

Am I missing something about this, or is this fraud?

Posted Sep 10, 2023, 3:28 PM UTC

14
Educational-Teach815•

its called correlation look it up

1
hamster_13•

SGP don't math out right on DK either, not sure why exactly and it seems they don't publish their calculations for them.

1
baseballer_17•

Lol what, books would legit go bankrupt if you could get those kinda odds on heavily correlated plays

1
Quadstriker•

Oh my sweet summer child

1
Mugen8YT•

Are you mistakenly thinking it should act like a regular parlay with different events?

Different events are, for the most part, independent (teeeeechnically there can be some extremely slight dependence; butterfly effect and all that, and more obvious stuff like a team trying harder if one of their rivals won earlier in the day, particularly if finals/playoffs are coming up), so they can simply multiply the odds together to get the parlay odds.

The markets in same game parlays are very often very dependent/correlated with each other. Take a points total and the line for most sports. If the points total goes under, the team with the handicap is much more likely to cover the line. They can't just multiply those odds together or else they'll likely be giving the bettor a +value bet, which isn't what the books want to do. So they adjust. Similarly, the under points and the favourite will likely give you better odds than if you just multiplied them together.

So basically - non-SGP - markets are independent. SGP - markets are dependent on each other.

1