Gaza Health Ministry past reliability and accuracy

What is the Gaza Health Ministry:

The ministry is the only official source for Gaza casualties. Israel has sealed Gaza’s borders, barring foreign journalists and humanitarian workers. The AP is among a small number of international news organizations with teams in Gaza. While those journalists cannot do a comprehensive count, they’ve viewed large numbers of bodies at the sites of airstrikes, morgues and funerals.

The United Nations and other international institutions and experts, as well as Palestinian authorities in the West Bank — rivals of Hamas — say the Gaza ministry has long made a good-faith effort to account for the dead under the most difficult conditions.

“The numbers may not be perfectly accurate on a minute-to-minute basis,” said Michael Ryan, of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Program. “But they largely reflect the level of death and injury.”

In previous wars, the ministry’s counts have held up to U.N. scrutiny, independent investigations and even Israel’s tallies.

Accuracy & Reliability:

Throughout four wars and numerous bloody skirmishes between Israel and Hamas, U.N. agencies have cited the Health Ministry’s death tolls in regular reports. The International Committee of the Red Cross and Palestinian Red Crescent also use the numbers.

In the aftermath of war, the U.N. humanitarian office has published final death tolls based on its own research into medical records.

In all cases the U.N.'s counts have largely been consistent with the Gaza Health Ministry’s, with small discrepancies.

— 2008 war: The ministry reported 1,440 Palestinians killed; the U.N. reported 1,385.

— 2014 war: The ministry reported 2,310 Palestinians killed; the U.N. reported 2,251.

— 2021 war: The ministry reported 260 Palestinians killed; the U.N. reported 256.

While Israel and the Palestinians disagree over the numbers of militants versus civilians killed in past wars, Israel’s accounts of Palestinian casualties have come close to the Gaza ministry’s. For instance, Israel’s Foreign Ministry said the 2014 war killed 2,125 Palestinians — just a bit lower than the ministry’s toll.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel has killed “thousands” of militants in the current war, without offering evidence or precise numbers.

“These figures are professionally done and have proven to be reliable,” said Omar Shakir, Human Rights Watch’s Israel and Palestine director, adding he remained “cognizant of different blind spots and weaknesses” such as the failure to distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Isn't Gaza Health Ministry ran by Hamas?

Hamas, as Gaza’s ruling authority, exerts control over the Health Ministry. But it’s different than political and security agencies that Hamas runs.

The Palestinian Authority, which controlled Gaza before Hamas overran the area in 2007, retains power over health and education services in Gaza, though it’s based in the occupied West Bank. The ministry is a mix of recent Hamas hires and older civil servants affiliated with the secular nationalist Fatah party, officials say.

The Fatah-dominated authority that administers Palestinian cities in the Israeli-occupied West Bank has its own health ministry in Ramallah, which still provides medical equipment to Gaza, pays Health Ministry salaries and handles patient transfers from the blockaded enclave to Israeli hospitals.

Health Minister Mai al-Kaila in Ramallah oversees the parallel ministries, which receive the same data from hospitals. Her deputy is based in Gaza.

The Ramallah ministry said it trusts casualty figures from partners in Gaza, and it takes longer to publish figures because it tries to confirm numbers with its own Gaza staff.

Hamas tightly controls access to information and runs the government media office that offers details on Israeli airstrikes. But employees of the Health Ministry insist Hamas doesn’t dictate casualty figures.

“Hamas is one of the factions. Some of us are aligned with Fatah, some are independent,” said Ahmed al-Kahlot, director of Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza. “More than anything, we are medical professionals.”

The Hospital Blast?:

U.S Intelligence estimates the potential death toll to be in the lower ranges of 100-300. Gaza Health Ministry has confirmed 470 deaths, with their initial official estimates being 500 victims/deaths. The media had a huge blunder on blaming the blast on Israel, but is it really absurd for the initial reports to blame Israel? You are hospital who got warnings days prior from Israel themselves, and have been getting air striked by Israel for the past two weeks. You hear an air-strike happen outside your parking-lot... is it really absurd to think "it was probably Israel"? That probably would be anyone's initial thought.

It is important to consider that the parking lot was protecting hundreds of people seeking refuge anywhere they can. There were reports days leading up to this incident of people moving in mass trying to seek shelter in hospitals and UN facilities in Gaza. You could also consider that hospitals are overrun and health resources are limited, so plenty of people who died could potentially have lost their lives from dedicated medical care.

TLDR:

Gaza Health Ministry has been reliable in the past, and their numbers have been accurate after UN investigations and Israel's own investigated death tolls. Of course they could lie now, but they do not have a history of doing so. Reliability and reputation is the foundation in which most people operate. You cannot believe 100% what they're reporting, but to brush their numbers off entirely simply because of "biases" does not seem productive. Since Israel also has a bias, but people seem to take their word at gospel at times.