Arianne Martell's Sailing to Storm's End

We find out at the end of TWOW, Arianne II that Arianne will be taking a ship to Storm's End to meet with Young Griff/Jon Con. In this post I thought it would be interesting to discuss the decision to take ship instead of overland.

Background

Throughout Arianne's first two chapters she travels towards Storm's End (using both horses/ships) before reaching Griffin's Roost. Once there she finds out that not only has the Golden Company taken Storm's End, but that they want her to take a ship to the castle:

I know you seek Lord Connington, and he desires words with you as well, most urgently. If it please you, on the morrow there will be a ship to take you to him.”

“Where?” demanded Arianne.

“Has no one told you?” Halden Halfmaester favored her with a smile thin and hard as a dagger cut. “Storm’s End is ours. The Hand awaits you there.” -TWOW, Arianne II

Shipbreaker's Bay is dangerous. So the safer (but longer due to the muddy terrain that should affect the upcoming battle) way is overland:

Daemon Sand stepped up beside her. “Shipbreaker Bay can be perilous even on a fair summer’s day. The safer way to Storm’s End is overland.”

“These rains have turned the roads to mud. The journey would take two days, perhaps three,” said Halden Halfmaester. A ship will have the princess there in half a day or less. There is an army descending on Storm’s End from King’s Landing. You will want to be safe inside the walls before the battle.” -TWOW, Arianne II

But Arianne decides that she must go:

“Refuse them, princess. I mistrust these sellswords. Do not go to Storm’s End.”

What makes you believe they will allow me that choice? She had had the uneasy feeling that Haldon Halfmaester and Lysono Maar were going to put her on that ship come morning whether she willed it or no. Better not to test them. ...

Daemon Sand went to one knee. “Send me to Storm’s End in your stead. Then if the griffin’s plans should go awry and Mace Tyrell takes the castle back, I will be just another landless knight who swore his sword to this pretender in hopes of gain and glory.”

Whereas if I am taken, the Iron Throne will take that for proof that Dorne conspired with these sellswords, and lent aid to their invasion. “It is brave for you to seek to shield me, ser. I thank you for that.” She took his hands and drew him back to his feet. **“But my father entrusted this task to me, not you. Come the morrow, I sail to beard the dragon in its den.” -**TWOW, Arianne II

If interested: Arianne Martell in The Winds of Winter & The Princess' Ravens to Doran Martell

Getting to Storm's End

We don't really have much information on the ship itself, just that it should get her there quickly. If you like posts on ships: Secrets Aboard the Shy Maid & All Aboard!: The Journey of the Cinnamon Wind & Euron's Silence.

Physical Obstacles

As Daemon Dand mentions above, the waters around Storm's End are perilous, in fact (just like Pyke) there is no safer anchorage at Storm's End:

The stormlands have also produced their share of great seamen and sailors. Storm's End itself, looming over the great cliffs of Durran's Point and the treacherous rocks of Shipbreaker Bay, offers no safe anchorage for either warship or merchant craft, but in the time of the Storm Kings, war fleets were oft maintained on Massey's Hook, Estermont, and in the towns and fishing villages along the Sea of Dorne. Later, other monarchs preferred to dock their fleets on the western shore of Tarth, where that great island's mountains helped to shelter them from the storms that often raged through the narrow sea. -TWOIAF, The Stormlands: The Men of the Stormlands

we see even strong ships get destroyed but strong/sudden storms:

It saddened Cressen to remember that letter. No one had ever taught Stannis how to laugh, least of all the boy Patchface. The storm came up suddenly, howling, and Shipbreaker Bay proved the truth of its name. The lord's two-masted galley Windproud broke up within sight of his castle. From its parapets his two eldest sons had watched as their father's ship was smashed against the rocks and swallowed by the waters. A hundred oarsmen and sailors went down with Lord Steffon Baratheon and his lady wife, and for days thereafter every tide left a fresh crop of swollen corpses on the strand below Storm's End. -ACOK, Prologue

but we do know it is at least possible to do, as Davos did on at least 2 occasions:

Cloaked in that darkness, Davos the smuggler had dared the Redwyne cordon and the rocks of Shipbreaker Bay alike. His little ship had a black hull, black sails, black oars, and a hold crammed with onions and salt fish. Little enough, yet it had kept the garrison alive long enough for Eddard Stark to reach Storm's End and break the siege. -ACOK, Prologue

and:

The seaward side of Storm's End perched upon a pale white cliff, the chalky stone sloping up steeply to half again the height of the massive curtain wall. A mouth yawned in the cliff, and it was that Davos steered for, as he had sixteen years before. The tunnel opened on a cavern under the castle, where the storm lords of old had built their landing. -ACOK, Davos II

The Pirates

While still in Dorne, Lady Toland make a warning about traveling oversea at the current times:

You were wise not to come by sea. Since the Redwyne fleet passed through the Stepstones, those waters are crawling with strange sails, all the way north to the Straights of Tarth and Shipbreaker’s Bay. Myrmen, Volantenes, Lyseni, even reavers from the Iron Islands. Some have entered the Sea of Dorne to land men on the south shore of Cape Wrath. -TWOW, Arianne I

The mixup of the different groups in the Stepstones is (similar to the outlaw groups in the Riverlands) one of my parts of the series (how information gets jumbled as to what exactly is happening).

while we know that there is a new "pirate lord" (Aurane Waters most likely) who has taken up shop in the Stepstones:

“And krakens off the Broken Arm, pulling under crippled galleys,” said Valena. “The blood draws them to the surface, our maester claims. There are bodies in the water. A few have washed up on our shores. And that’s not half of it. A new pirate king has set up on Torturer’s Deep. The Lord of the Waters, he styles himself. This one has real warships, three-deckers, monstrous large. You were wise not to come by sea. Since the Redwyne fleet passed through the Stepstones, those waters are crawling with strange sails, all the way north to the Straights of Tarth and Shipbreaker’s Bay. Myrmen, Volantenes, Lyseni, even reavers from the Iron Islands. Some have entered the Sea of Dorne to land men on the south shore of Cape Wrath. -TWOW, Arianne I

we also have Stannis/Davos' old rogue Salladhor Saan potentially in the area as well:

"At sea." Salla would be sailing around the Fingers and down the narrow sea. He was returning to the Stepstones with what few ships remained him. Perhaps he would acquire a few more along the way, if he came upon some likely merchantmen. A little piracy to help the leagues go by. "His Grace has sent him south, to trouble the Lannisters and their friends." The lie was one he had rehearsed as he rowed toward Sisterton through the rain. Soon or late the world would learn that Salladhor Saan had abandoned Stannis Baratheon, leaving him without a fleet, but they would not hear it from the lips of Davos Seaworth. -ADWD, Davos I

but we need to keep in mind that not only is the Golden Company quite strong, but while they were arriving/landing they took "half the Stepstones":

"Tarth has fallen too, some fisherfolk will tell you," said Valena. "These sellswords now hold most of Cape Wrath and half the Stepstones. We hear talk of elephants in the rainwood. -TWOW, Arianne I

which depending on the timing of the Arrival and Initial Attacks by the Golden Company could mean a few different things (primarily did they attempt to/take Torturer's Deep).

As Lady Toland mentions there are a few other groups that could be in the area as well (stranded members of Victarion's crew, etc.) but after Arianne's failed Queenmaker plot involving Arys Oakheart, I always thought the logical next step in Arianne's journey was a meeting with Young Griff, I never considered the fact that she could potentially run into Aurane Waters first.

If interested: The Taking of Estermont, The Golden Company & a Dornish Hostage

TLDR: I fully expect Arianne to make it to Storm's End and parlay with Young Griff/Jon Con. That said, sailing in Shipbreaker's Bay is extremely dangerous due to not only the storms/rocks but also the different pirate groups that could potentially be in the water.