Let's Put Aside Trades & Talk About a Target: Jarace Walker
*For the purposes of this post, I will be ignoring trade proposals and focusing on just the player...mostly*
In my last post, I mentioned that the Pacers had two young players that could be of interest to the Raptors. Whether or not Mathurin would be available is debatable but there is seemingly a lot less attachment for Indiana's most recent lottery pick, Jarace Walker.
The 8th pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Walker is just about as different a player as one could think of compared to the defense-abrasive Canuck, though they do share one thing in common: Rick Carlisle's generally critical ire. Unlike the last player, Jarace Walker has, to the frustration of Pacers fans, not received serious minutes at a pivotal position for the majority of the season thus far. Outside of garbage time such as a blowout loss to the Celtics (155-104), he's found minutes to be sparse and has received more than one G League assignment by Indiana.
To put this into perspective, these are the minutes per game of the 2023 NBA lottery rookies from 1-14:
| Pick No. | Player | Minutes per Game |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Wembanyama | 30.5 |
| 2 | Scoot Henderson | 26.1 |
| 3 | Brandon Miller | 32.2 |
| 4 | Amen Thompson | 15.4 |
| 5 | Ausur Thompson | 27 |
| 6 | Anthony Black | 19.5 |
| 7 | Bilal Coulibaly | 26.9 |
| 8 | Jarace Walker | 10.5 |
| 9 | Taylor Hendricks | 17.3 |
| 10 | Cason Wallace | 21.8 |
| 11 | Jett Howard | 4.3 |
| 12 | Dereck Lively | 25.3 |
| 13 | Gradey Dick | 13.4 |
| 14 | Jordan Hawkins | 24.3 |
It is worth keeping in mind that it's still early in to the season and there is some relevant context to consider for a few of these players:
- Injuries has affected a few of these rookies' ability to play and thus their minutes such as Amen Thompson and even Scoot Henderson
- Conversely, injuries have led to a number of these young players getting more minutes than perhaps they would have to start the season such as Jordan Hawkins getting a run while Trey Murphy III was out due to injury
- Roster construction is key: Players like Black and Hendricks have to carve out minutes due to their respective teams having a relatively deep mixture of combo guards and pure shooting guards that are trying to figure out their rotation. If they were on a team with a less guard heavy roster, it's likely they would see their minutes go up.
With that in mind, it should serve to illustrate how both bizarre it is that a rookie who fills a position of need on a relatively young team (Myles Turner and Buddy Hield aside, the Pacers are a pretty young team) and said team sorely is lacking on the defensive end, hence the constant rumors about them trading for one of Pascal Siakam or O.G. Anunoby, is getting less minutes than, say, a guard in the bloated backcourt in Orlando.
It's also worth mentioning that this sample is only lottery rookies; several non-lottery rookies are getting serious minutes for their team such as the Warriors' Brandin Podziemski (21.8 minutes per game), the Heat's Jaime Jaquez Jr. (28) and Mormon Country's Keyonte George (25.8), all of whom are getting serious playtime in spite of or because of their team's current needs. Podziemski in particular stands out because he's receiving significant playtime on a team that would otherwise be hostile to a rookie given Golden State is trying to compete for a championship - even if they're struggling to make the play-in at the moment but I digress.
This is without diving in to the number of games he's seen the floor on; of the Pacers 25 games played to date (as of this writing their most recent game was a loss to the Clippers), Jarace has played in a whopping 8 of them. Unlike the other players we've talked about - or will talk about when we get to the Warriors young guys - there isn't much to talk about in regards to Jarace's play at the NBA level. He just isn't getting played a lot and what little playtime he's getting isn't in a particularly competitive scene. If one removes the single game he played more than 20 minutes from this admittedly already small sample size, Jarace has played an average of 8.6 minutes in 7 games*.*
While there is a fair amount of speculation to be had on Ivey or Mathurin given there's only one season of play to go by, Jarace is more of an unknown when it comes to the NBA level due to that lack of playtime. As such, we're going to be spending a lot more time talking about their sole college year than we are what they're currently doing because there isn't a ton to really draw from either those limited NBA minutes or how they've looked in the G League.
So, let's talk about the intriguing forward that is Jarace Walker.
Jarace Walker
2022/23 College Stats: 11.2 PPG | 6.8 RPG | 1.8 APG (1.5 TO) | FG% 46.5 | 3P% 34.7 | FT% 66.3
Height: 6'7 | Weight: 235 lbs. | Wingspan: 7'3 | Age: 20 years old
Strengths
Let's get this out of the way: Jarace Walker is the definition of a Swiss Army knife of a defender. Versatile, quick and with the size to match his defensive tenacity and feel for that end of the floor, Jarace is just as strong a team helper as he is when taking on a tough 1-on-1 assignment. Regardless of how many minutes he'd get in Toronto (something we'll touch on in the fit section), he is going to make an impact on that end.
He can switch with ease, he has little issue staying in front of his man and he's got the length to make up for not having the quickest hip shift against more agile guards. Jarace got a lot of comparisons to Paul Milsap and Aaron Gordon as the prototypical high impact wing that every team in the league covets and stats both simple and advanced certainly support that comparison; in his sole college season, he averaged 1.3 blocks and a solo steal per game while functioning mostly as a weakside defender for Houston.
As far as offense goes, we'll touch on most of this later but what can be said is Jarace's floater is solid and, mechanically speaking, his shot form doesn't have anything broken about it. There is some room for optimism about his offensive upside from outside and he does boast the quickness to get past what few defenders can beat him in the size department. That said, he's not particularly known for finishing though contact, often relying on his floater to get the job done.
He is an underrated passer for his position. Don't let the sub-2 assist average fool you; he might not be a team's primary or secondary playmaking option and his handle isn't the tightest but as a tertiary playmaker, Walker is great at making quick reads and keeping the ball moving.
It's a good thing too because as far as his other traits on offense go...
Weaknesses
There's no way to get around this: Walker is largely a project on offense. More flashes than substantive showcases, and unlike, say, Jaden Ivey where there was some signs that he could be a decent shooter in college, Walker's free throw percentage of 66.2% was not a positive sign that he could become a major shooting threat. Granted, he wasn't used nor asked to be a larger presence on offense but even within the realm of a roleplayer, it remains a point of concern for his offensive ceiling.
One might point to his college 3-point shooting of 34.7% - notably he shot 38% on catch and shoot 3s when unguarded - as a sign of him having the potential ability to light opposing defenses ablaze if left unchecked, however bear in mind that the college line is shorter than that of the NBA. Generally speaking, free throw shooting is more indicative of a player's potential to build an outside shot and as far as that goes, Jarace was...not great. That doesn't mean he's projected to be a brick layer so much as it leaves a very narrow path for him to become an elite shooter, if not, above league average.
I've seen some O.G. comparisons both pre and post-draft, mostly since Anunoby was also not a great free throw shooter in college as he shot 47.6% and 56.3% in both seasons - but O.G.'s growth as an outside presence is not the norm for players who were bad free throw shooters in college. That doesn't mean Jarace can't follow the same trajectory, but it is not a guarantee despite a fair number of other reasonable comparisons one can draw between the two.
If there is one positive that can be drawn from this, it's that Jarace's free throw percentage wasn't on particularly high volume; Walker had only 65 attempts from the free throw line in his college season so it may not fully represent how good of a shooter he could be since, as mentioned earlier, his actual shot form doesn't have anything clunky about it.
That said, there is a reason why Jarace took so few free throws. As mentioned before, he was not known to finish through contact and was generally averse to using his size to make his way to the basket, preferring to either get by via his speed or overrelying on his floater which, as nice as it looks, the efficiency was lacking. For a 6'8 forward with an NBA-ready frame, it's perplexing that he was so opposed to relying on said size to finish against college players so one can only wonder how he'd fare if given serious runs against more seasoned competition i.e. will his continuing shyness crop up as a problem against the more physically demanding players Jarace would be expected to score on. His free throw rate of 23.5% is shockingly low and it stands in strange contrast to the competitive, physical defense that he plays.
There's certainly intrigue to the tools Walker has on offense but as of right now, it's mostly hypothetical - and that presents a particular problem as a potential partner.
The Fit With Barnes
Look, I couldn't find a photo with Scottie and Jarace. They haven't been on the floor together, ok?
We haven't talked much about the "who" of this series that would be on the move for any of the players that have been discussed. That's because I wanted to focus more on the player and their individual fit with Scottie rather than bogging these posts down with an endless debate of "What is the trade value of ____?" or "how much of a flight risk either player represents to Indiana or any other team and how will that affect their best offer", and so on and so forth.
To me, the question of "Who is getting traded?" is far less important a question than "How does this or that player fit next to Scottie Barnes?" because that's the point of making that move. Beyond replenishing the Raptors currently low assets, this is about retooling - not rebuilding - around Scottie Barnes and setting up this new era of Raptors basketball for success in a way that, say, the Vince Carter set the team back when it came to Bosh's time in he spotlight.
The Raptors main area of need right now is in the guard department so it hasn't been as much of an issue when one is moving, presumably, one of their forwards in order to get said guard so players like Immanuel Quickley, Jaden Ivey or Bennedict Mathurin, regardless of availability, all fulfill a role in the short-term while boasting their own respective upside. However in this specific case, we do need to address the trade aspect somewhat because Walker is a big man and thus would be expected to slot in to one of the forward positions (there is some potential for minutes as a small ball 5 but I digress). Even if he isn't going to start i.e. perhaps moving one of O.G. or Siakam would lead to Gary Trent Jr. starting at the 2 over Walker at the 3/4, especially if it's O.G. due to the lost shooting the starting lineup would have to contend with, he is presumably playing minutes in the frontcourt rather than the back.
For the sake of focusing on the player, we'll ignore the question of who starts or comes off the bench and leave it at this: Of the 4 players we've talked about (Those being Jaden Ivey, Immanuel Quickley and Bennedict Mathurin and as of now, Jarace Walker), Jarace is the one with the least seamless fit when it comes to sharing the floor with Scottie Barnes, regardless of where those minutes are found. It becomes a larger issue if he's traded for O.G. Anunoby and thus the Raptors have one less option to space the floor but it's a problem regardless of who's being moved. He doesn't handle the ball any more than Siakam can as the first or second option on a given night, he doesn't add a new dynamic to the offense and, currently, he is neither a go-to threat off the dribble nor is he a notable sniper spotting up from behind the arc. He's a good defender but the Raptors have plenty of those...although the team currently miring in a mediocre defense despite the lengthy personnel, so one could argue Jarace's intensity could be a positive.
Regardless of how one wants to interpret the immediate impact, Walker is more of a timeline reset, and to an extent, a gamble on his long-term growth than he is a short-term fix to one of the many problems present with the 2023 Toronto Raptors. Arguably, he's a gamble with a higher ceiling but development is never a guarantee nor can one expect it to be of linear fashion so one can expect some growing pains along the way.
Walker does at least have a high floor as a defender so as to not leave the Raptors scrambling to contain other opposing forwards. As for that potential, i've mentioned Aaron Gordon as the sort of impact roleplayer that Walker fits in the mold of but while I did downplay the similarities to another player's free throw shooting, there is another player who does resemble his player mould with fairly similar stats in their last year in college basketball:
College Player A - 11.1 PPG | 5.4 RPG | 1.4 APG (1.6 TO) |FG% 56.3 | 3P% 36.5 | FT% 52.2
Jarace Walker - 11.2 PPG | 6.8 RPG | 1.8 APG (1.5 TO) | FG% 46.5 | 3P% 34.7 | FT% 66.3
If those numbers seem familiar, it's because they're O.G. Anunoby's college stats. Specifically from his sophomore season. Stats aside, there are a lot of similarities as players: Both were seen as versatile, do-it-all forwards coming in to the draft. They both boasted size, length, a questionable handle and the two had scouts sharing concerns about their ability to self-create in their respective drat classes. Despite the Raptors drafting him so late in the 1st round, it's worth remembering that Anunoby was seen as a guaranteed lottery pick before an untimely, season-ending injury hurt his draft stock, with several scouts saying he could go anywhere in that 5-10 range.
As a prospect, O.G. was seen as much more aggressive getting to the rim and finishing through contact while Walker has shown significantly better playmaking potential. Both aren't/weren't great free throw shooters and neither are particularly respectable ballhandlers, let alone seen as a team's top option on offense though Walker was far less prone to the sloppy turnovers in college than O.G. can cause the occasional frustration with to this very day. Even back in Indiana, Anunoby was averaging more turnovers than assists though in fairness to O.G., he wasn't expected to be the team's main or secondary playmaker. But I digress.
In essence, trading for Walker is a gamble on replicating the same developmental success that the Raptors had with O.G. Anunoby i.e. an NBA-ready young forward from college heading in to the league with great size who is viewed favorably via defensive metrics but boasts questionable shooting stats and a handle that does need some work. We've seen that O.G. and Scottie work tremendously well together - all of the metrics and advanced stats show they're a positive when sharing the floor together - but there are questions as to whether their peaks and prime will align with one another, not to mention a constant debate about what dollar value said impact would & should command in this year's free agency barring a career-ending injury.
That said, it should go without saying that Walker reaching the heights O.G. has on either end is a huge ask for the 20 year old. It's reasonable to expect a frontcourt of Scottie and Jarace to be particularly smothering and switchable but that is not the area where most of the questions lie at the moment, despite how the Raptors defensive rating have slipped in recent weeks. If anything, Walker's unproven shooting would serve as further stifling the already packed paint one would expect teams to load up on with him in any given lineup.
A G League Aside
For what little it's worth, Walker has been tearing it up in the G-League; he's shooting a scorching hot 46.4% on 7 3s a game and averaging 27.5 points in the 4 games he's played but...well it should be evident what the problem is deriving anything of note from 28 3s or even his free throw shooting being a very nice 69.2%. If you're still skeptical about Scottie's ability to knock it down from outside, then there's no way you can reasonably draw a conclusion from this beyond "Maybe he's too good for the G League and should get some reps in an actual NBA game".
That and the G League has some unique quirks regarding how it handles free throws, but I digress.
Regardless of whether it's O.G. or Siakam - because it sure isn't going to be Poeltl unless the Pacers front office falls asleep on the fax machine - or even a rerouting of assets sort of ordeal that expands on either two's return, there is a level of redundancy to acquiring Jarace, to the point where one has to hope he'll rapidly improve to fill in the gap of what one is losing.
Conclusion
This came across as a lot more negative than when I originally intended to write this so let's make it clear: There is a lot to like Jarace Walker as a player. He's a competitive defender who fits the profile of what this team loves and his playmaking - especially if they become a legitimate 3rd option and buys in to that tertiary role - is exceptionally intriguing given the expected position he'll play in conjunction with the Raptors new 0.5 offensive system encouraging the sort of quick decision-making that Jarace was no stranger to showcasing in college. But he isn't addressing a current point of need and represents more of a bet on the Raptors development system and bringing out the best in their players.
How one feels about that given the recent drought of G League - or even non-905 Raptors - development success stories short of Boucher is up to you to decide how comfortable you are with him coming Toronto's way.
Posted Dec 21, 2023, 8:45 AM UTC