Effort Post- Why was Hugo Chavez so Popular? A statistical Analysis

I'm a PhD student studying the media and Latin America, and I can honestly say, Venezuela is the most misunderstood country in the world. After a positive response to my previous effort post, I've written another.

Reading the newspapers, we see that Hugo Chavez was an authoritarian demagogue. A “would-be dictator”, no less. Why then, did he win landslide after landslide? In other words, why was he so popular?

Unlike most people who talk about Venezuela, I don't want you to just believe me, I want you to check up on me, to scrutinize my figures to within an inch of their life. That's why I've given you links to everything. Every effort has been made to use unimpeachable, international sources such as the World Bank, United Nations and respected polling organizations such as Pew Global and Latinobarometro, who are used frequently in the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and the Economist. This is to make sure there can be no questioning of the data. Note* this is an analysis of successes, not failures. If I get a good response I'll consider doing analysing failures, of which there are some, although many supposed failures have been debunked already.

Venezuela Before Chavez

Despite producing more than $300 billion of oil wealth between 1958-1998, the equivalent of 20 Marshall Plans, the majority of venezuelans were living in shocking slums. By the 1990s, quality of life indicators for ordinary Caracas residents were slightly below Port-Au-Prince, Haiti. Between 1970-1997, workers' incomes declined by 50%, while poverty doubled between 1984-1991. There was widespread repression, with the previous 3 presidents all using censors and all suspending constitutional guarantees. The two main political parties, almost indistinguishable in ideologies shared the oil wealth between them, blocking out any third parties. Just in case, they rigged elections anyway, as 89% of Venezuelans believe. The LA Times' Bart Jones commented that the guy who came 4th in the 1993 election may have got the most votes. (Jones, B. Hugo!, p. 184.) Inflation reached 103% and there was considerable repression, like the infamous Caracazo where Jones describes “mass graves” filled with “mutilated corpses” of all ages. “Tied up corpses” with “bullets in the back of the head” and Red Cross workers gunned down in the street (Jones, Hugo, p.124).

Poverty

This is the big one. It is often mentioned in passing in the press, but never explored. Let's do so. According to the World Bank, poverty has halved in 10 years while extreme poverty has dropped by nearly 3/4. Here they are juxtaposed with Brazil, a country lauded for its achievements in reducing poverty. Given Venezuela's population, that equates to around 10 million people (1/3 of the entire population) pulled out of poverty. Both the United Nations Development Project and the World Bank agree that unemployment dropped from over 11% to under 8%. Child malnutrition has dropped by 2/3. Fully 1.2 million children were malnourished when Chavez came to power) Venezuela's GDP per capita has skyrocketed, as has GNI per capita. However, these measures only take into account financial improvements. It is to non-financial improvements we now turn.

Health

Chavez has accomplished the herculean task of creating a universal healthcare system from out of the ground. Health expenditures per person have tripled. As a result, child mortality has dropped precipitously. The number of public doctors rose 1,100%, from just 1628 for the entire nation in 1998 to 19,571 in 2007. These doctors had given 225 million free consultations by 2007(Source Cannon, B. Hugo Chavez and the Bolivarian Revolution, p. 93). 51,000 forgotten Venezuelans were given operations to restore their sight.

Democracy

Voter turnout in the 2012 elections was over 80%, higher than any US election in history. Under Chavez, nearly two and a half times as many people vote as in the 1990s. (1998 turnout: 6.3mil, 2012 turnout 14.8mil) Jimmy Carter and the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Carter Center recently stated “the election process in Venezuela is the best in the world.” The European Union Election Observation Mission agreed, saying “the system developed in Venezuela is probably the most advanced in the world to date”. Canadian NGO, the foundation for Democratic Change gave the Venezuelan election 78/100(very satisfactory). It gave the 2012 US election 54.5/100(unsatisfactory) One year pre-Chavez, only 11% of Venezuelans claimed elections were clean. By 2006, 2/3 believed they were. Venezuela has by far the largest number of political parties in Latin America, and their confidence in them is the highest in the region. This is in contrast to a 1990 poll which found only 4% approval of parties. (Source: Buxton, J. Case Studies in Latin American Political Economy, p. 177) In 2002, 80% of Venezuelans believed “my vote influences policy”. Venezuelans were asked to rate their democracy, on a scale of 1-10, by far the most popular answer was 10. Venezuelans believe there is slightly more freedom of speech in VZ than in Spain.

Women's Rights

Venezuela was an uber- machismo society (think “Mad Men”). The new Constitution was written with gender neutral words. Housewives' work is officially recognised as work and housewives get paid by the government to work. The women's bank was set up to provide loans to women. There has been a 500% increase in the amount of female representatives in parliament. It is a loong way from a feminist's dream. But it has considerably improved.

Economy

Venezuela's economy has more than tripled in size since Chavez took office. In Foreign Affairs, the flagship US political science journal, Bernardo Alvarez shows that DataAnalysis published a report which found a 445% income increase among the poorer classes of Venezuela and a 194% increase for the upper classes due to the huge economic boom driven by the state. Venezuela's stock market is the highest-performing in the world. Venezuelans are the most optimistic about their economy in Latin America. Contrary to what you might have heard, Venezuelan inflation has plummeted since Chavez took office- down from 103% one year pre-Chavez to just 18.6% this year. This despite a large increase in spending power. How are they doing this? They must be racking up huge debts, right? Wrong again.

Education

Thanks to Mission Robinson more than 1.5 million forgotten Venezuelans have learned to read and write for the first time. (Jones, B. Hugo!, p. 8) Despite its small population, Venezuela has the 5th largest student body in the world, having tripled to 2 million in 2010 (7% of population) (S Brouwer, Revolutionary Doctors, p. 147) University education is free in public universities. Nearly half a million street children are now in school and dropout rates are very low.

Equality

According to the GINI index, in 1998, Venezuela was the most unequal country in the most unequal region in the world. In contrast to the USA, inequality has dropped from 0.49 to 0.39. (Numbers confirmed by this BBC article) to become the lowest in Latin America.

Integration

Venezuela has taken the lead in integrating Latin America. Organizations like CELAC, Unasur and ALBA have been formed to help integrate Latin American nations. Venezuela is, by a considerable margin, the most admired country in Latin America.. In 1996, it was only the 6th.

Most of these highly accessible facts are easily available online, in English. Yet almost none of them have appeared in the US media. It's my contention that the US media are terrified. Of you. Of you finding out about how across Latin America, people have revolted against austerity and taken control of their countries.

“In the war of ideas, it's often more effective to destroy their brand than build up ours.”- James K. Glassman, Under-secretary for Public Diplomacy, US State Dept.