What would you do in this situation?

You are playing in a 100 player event. 7 rounds of Swiss, then cut to top 8. Round 6 is about to start and you are currently 4-1. Your opponent is 5-0, and there are 2 other 5-0 players that are taking the split to 5-0-1.

Your opponent offers a split. You would be 4-1-1 going into the final round. You know your opponents deck, and you are normally a 35-40% win rate. A match loss eliminates you from contention. A win means you still need to win the last round anyway. Tiebreaker info is currently unavailable.

Do you take the split and what should be a win and in scenario for the last round? Or do you play it out and try to win 2 in a row?