Let's play a game: Guess 2024 full year revenue guidance

One of the data points that will determine how share price responds will be full year revenue guidance. Along with EPS, cash balances, debt paydown etc. I thought it'd be fun if we tried to guess where revenue guidance might come at, since everything else sort of flows from this. (Assuming they provide it.)

For some context:

• Revenue for 2023 was 4.8B and 3.9B in 2022
• AMC guided Q1 revenue to be 951M a few weeks ago - higher than analyst forecasts
• Analyst estimates for 2024 are 4.56B average, with a low-high range of 4.41B to 4.83B

My own estimate is 4.35B.

Assumptions:

• Domestic box office is 8B this year
• AMC increases domestic market share by 2% to 41.4% this year (based on last 2 year trend)
• AMC maintains 6.7% international market share
• 76% of AMC revenue comes from domestic market (previous average)

Yes, my estimate is lower than analysts. If I am wrong, then it means I'll need to being more bullish about the immediate prospects.

What do you think will be 2024 revenue guidance?