Thank you MGK for your AWESOME efforts plus Market segments and numbers
Hi Longs,
It is an awesome Monday and I have to thank MGK for his significant contributions to many different message boards including this one. I am going to hone in on MGK's commentary regarding 85% of the cancer tumors "Cold Tumors" that LL can go after that Keytruda can not touch Plus, a little market research on some of the other disease markets we may be exploring.
What is MSS status in colorectal cancer?
MSS stands for “Microsatellite Stable.” Approximately 80-85% of colorectal cancer patients are not MSI-H/MMR deficient and are instead classified as MSS*. MSS tumors have been referred to as “cold” tumors, which means they don't normally trigger a strong response from the body's immune system.*
“According to the latest research study, the demand of global Colorectal Cancer Market size & share was valued at approximately USD 21923.4 Million in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 22,275.3 Million in 2024. Google AI
MGK was right that 85% is the number. 85% of 22 Billion (rounded down) is $18.7 Billion for MSS-CRC
mTNBC numbers:
The triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) treatment market is expected to reach $0.86 billion by 2031*. The market is characterized by challenges such as drug efficacy, toxicities, regulatory approval, and reimbursement for new treatments. Some key trends in the TNBC treatment market include: Healthcare consolidation, Public-private collaborations, and Technology integration. Google AI*
HR+/HER2- breast cancer
The report delineates the substantial market size of HR+/HER2- breast cancer, with an estimated value of USD 9,200 million in 2022 across the 7MM, forecasting appreciable growth by 2032. Jan 24, 2024. Google AI
mTNBC numbers plus HR+/HER2- breast cancer
The combined mTNBC and HR+/HER2 breast cancer is 860 million + 9.2 billion = 10 billion (rounded down). I am not sure if the 85% rule applies to these 2 breast cancers but let's say it does: Then the market size for these two is $8.5 billion
Just between MSS-CRC, mTNBC, and HR=/HER2 cancers; the 85% market size is $18.7 bil + $8.5 billion = $27.2 billion for the two cancers that CYDY has some provocative data on and CYDY is targeting. For sure the bigger of the two cancers is the MSS-CRC market at $18.7 billion. Market size is reason enough for why MSS-CRC is the number one priority over breast cancer.
Let's look at more markets:
NASH/MASH
The global non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) market generated $1,179 million in 2017, and is projected to reach $21,478 million by 2025*, growing at a CAGR of 58.4% from 2021 to 2025. Google AI*
Alzheimers
The Alzheimer's disease market was valued at $7.6 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12%. The Alzheimer's disease therapeutics market is estimated to grow from $4.82 billion in 2023 to over $8.18 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 8.7% between 2024 and 2032. GlobalData projects the Alzheimer's disease market to reach $13.7 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 20% from 2020. Google AI
Long-Haulers or PASC
From NIH: At least 65 million individuals worldwide are estimated to have long COVID, with cases increasing daily. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9839201/
Many studies are out there with ranges but looking at $10K - $25K annually for some of these costs for PASC. In the Long Hauler study patients received once a week LL for 12 weeks. On the low end just the cost of LL is $1000 per week/shot. To be conservative: I'll estimate $10K for each patient and I'll estimate potential access to 30 million patients. That is a $300 billion market, If someone does not understand the market potential for PASC then they never will. This is just an unbelievable disease state to go after and CYDY has provocative data in this regard. My conservative estimate is so freaking large that I will cut it down to just 10 million patients and that is still a $100 billion market. My god! This is off-the-charts amazing. If you have just 50% of the 10 million patients it is a $50 billion market.
Remember Keytruda has 11 indications and produces an annual revenue of $20 billion. Humira has multiple indications with a BLACK BOX WARNING and produces approximately $22 billion of revenue annually. Just getting a PASC indication exceeds the combined revenue of Keytruda and Humira.
So just looking at NASH, just two cancers, and ALZ it equals $56.2 billion and throw in a conservative estimate of PASC at $100 billion then CYDY is looking at LL participating in $156 billion in disease state markets and we have no way of calculating the chronic inflammation numbers. These potential numbers are HUGE! Please note: that this is not what CYDY gets bought out at, but potential indications and the size of those markets are part of the discussions.
It is very exciting to me to see how things will play out over the next few months, but behind the scenes, the discussions of valuation and the above numbers will be involved.
Dr. JL has used the words "we have provocative data" and needs to produce "unassailable data". The upcoming studies hopefully produce the unassailable data that decisions by Big Pharma eventually makes buyout decisions on. This is where we are at today. Dr. JL knows that to cross the RUBICON we need to partner and then produce the definitive data that crosses from provocative to unassailable.
Ohm20 has a list of 90 indications and it is not a list of wishes. It is a list of indications that actually involve CCR5. I don't think all of those indications have a scientific article published that implies inhibiting the CCR5 molecule aand if it would have an effect on the disease being studied. But a lot of them do. Nonetheless, any discussion between BP and CYDY will/should involve the published articles implicating the CCR5 molecule at a minimum.
The discussion to partner is taking place now and it is not unusual for buyout discussions to weave in and out during these discussions. Because valuation is also part of the partnership discussion. How does the BP currently value CYDY now and certainly how is the BP valuing the market size of let's say the MSS-CRC. How will this calculation affect how much financing to allocate and other resources? If there is a high interest by the BP to eventually buy CYDY but after 1-2 definitive studies are completed with unassailable outcomes; then the BP may want rights to purchase CYDY written into the contract. Or "rights of first refusal" written in if they can't agree on a valuation at this time.
My point is Cyrus knows and I know that during these conversations valuation pops up and having these types of numbers helps both sides come from a common place of understanding.
The top areas in no particular order for helping CYDY's valuation:
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current provocative data: PASC, HIV-MDR study, 28-patient Cancer basket trial, NASH trial, Covid severe-critical trial, any and all animal trials no matter where they were run. Any studies I missed that are listed in Clinical trials (I think there are 22 studies listed.)
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Long Acting LL, any and all data that moves the needle
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Upcoming trials MSS-CRC, Chronic Inflammation trial
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The long list of published articles implicationg CCR5
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Ohm2o's list of diseases that involve CCR5
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The SAFETY RECORD MIGHT BE UNMATCHED!
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The manufacturing technology is transferrable. CYDY has proved that. We just don't know where.
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Past baggage is gone and we don't bring a whole large infrastructure of people with any deal. We have the drug and the patent profile that does not start to expire until 2031.
I am sure the Longs on this board will suggest other items that I have not listed here.
Finally, let's not forget that Merck bought Prometheus for $10.9 billion after a phase 2 study for IBS. Yes, just one indication and they had a couple of other drugs in the pipeline starting in phase 1 trials. Currently, CYDY has more data than that on hand right now with certainly more potential indications. So to use Prometheus as a rough example: if BP valued CYDY at the same $11 Billion that is $11 per share. It would be a crime to sell that low even at this time. The lowest possible buyout that I could even imagine at his time is $20 billion. Screw whatever you think the stock price is. It has been manipulated down and we have the twatwaffles here to prove it. Somebodies have wanted to slam the stock price down so that a lowball offer would be attractive. Let me tell you, there are subtle posts that elude to "I'll take $5 a share and run" or "Oh you'll be lucky to see a $600 million buyout". I AM ENTERTAINED BY THESE POSTS. NOTHING BETTER THAN A GOOD LAUGH FOR THE DAY!!
Everyone has the right to sell when they need to. I get it! I know I can bail at $10 per share and that is a comfortable retirement for my wife and I. I just know from experience where this train is headed and that I'll be holding out for much much more.
When the NIH grant for PASC, and BP partnerships are announced along with an Amarex settlement and unassailable results are announced sometime in 2025; the stock price could easily be around $15-$20 without a buyout. If the investigation of stock manipulation is instituted and then concludes, the stock price will be even higher than what I am suggesting. All without a buyout.
I know what LL can do and Dr. JL knows it too. The twatwaffles are here to make it tough, but the LONGS know exactly what LL is: Possibly the greatest drug on the planet that will treat 100's of millions of patients.
GOOD LUCK LONGS
Posted May 20, 2024, 8:47 PM UTC