[OC] I made a projection model for the top 75 prospects (and all draftees since 2011)
Throwing this out to the group to give everyone another tool in the tool belt for looking at prospects tonight + tomorrow.
Every year I try to make a model that projects who are the best prospects in the draft. I started thinking about how to make some formula / recipe for during the 2010 draft when I couldn't understand how Paul George was ranked lower than Wesley Johnson despite putting up similar stats while being 2 years younger + bigger. This project is that formula, and helps put the prospects in perspective vs past drafts as well.
The model:
- The projection model (target: proj. VORP / season) for the top 75 prospects for this year, and all draftees since 2011
- A visual comparing its projections vs actual NBA performance per prospect for 2011-2020 drafts (59% accuracy overall, 71% accurate on top 10 only)
There's some big, big misses - Jimmer, Wiseman, Bamba, and many more - but hopefully this is a fun addition to all the intel + pods out right now. Happy draft day!
Posted Jun 26, 2024, 7:46 PM UTC
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