TEAM USA MEDAL HOPES AND ALL-MEDAL EVENTS PREVIEW: DAY 7 (AUG 2)

I was asked to expand my coverage to make sure to include more on the overall Olympics beyond just Team USA's medal hopes, so for the rest of the games I will do so when time allows! While these are still sorted into categories how likely or unlikely it is that Team USA will earn a medal of any kind, I've now made sure to include other favorites and notable names from around the globe.

(For an introduction to these categories, head to day one. And, as always, if you feel I am overestimating or underestimating anyone here in a sport you are a zealous follower of, please let me know and I'll adjust if I'm awake.)

EXTREMELY LIKELY:

Women's 200m Backstroke: Two members of Team USA are in the finals- Phoebe Bacon and Regan Smith. It feels all-but-guaranteed at least one of them will find the podium, but the bigger question is if either of them can beat the mighty Kaylee McKeown of Australia, who is the race favorite. Keep an eye on Canada's Kylie Masse and China's Xuwei Peng as well.

LIKELY:

Women's 50m Rifle 3 Positions: A member of the US Army, Maddalena Segan won bronze in the World Championships of this event last year, had the best score in qualifying, and has a good chance at the podium- perhaps even gold- here. The favorite for gold is likely China's Qiongyue Zhang (last year's world champ). Some of the favorites before the event, like GB's Seonaid McIntosh, Switzerland's Nina Christen, and Germany's Anna Janssen, failed to get through the qualification round, further opening this up for some weird possibilities and perhaps (perhaps!) making it easier for Segan to podium. If Mongolia's Yesugen Oyunbat wins gold, she'll be the first woman from her nation to do so.

Women's Surfing: Hey, they actually got surfing in yesterday! One American remains in the semifinals: 2023 WSL world champion Caroline Marks. Assuming they actually do surfing on Friday, it seems definitely more likely than not that she'll get on the podium, if only because she'd have to lose two showdowns to do so. Which could happen- again, a lot in surfing is at the mercy of the waves. The others in the semifinals are France's Johanne Defay, Brazil's Tatiana Weston-Webb, and Costa Rica's Brisa Hennessy.

REALISTICALLY POSSIBLE:

Men's Synchronized 3-Meter Springboard: The Chinese, of course, are the favorites, but the US team has had some good finishes in the World Cup and has a chance at the podium. Other teams to watch include France and Great Britain.

Women's Pair Rowing: The USA team is in the A-Final and while not considered among the favorites could surprise, although the boat is likely on the lower end of the “realistically possible” spectrum. The favorites here are likely Australia and the Dutch, although Romania- the reigning European Champions- will also challenge. Not surprisingly, Netherlands and Romania were the top two in their semifinal (top three advanced to Final A), while Australia and the USA led the other semifinal.

Women's Trampoline Gymnastics: Trampoline is one of the only regular sports (i.e. not host-choice or discontinued) in the Olympics the USA has never medaled in. Well, there's a CHANCE that changes this year: Jessica Stevens won a bronze at last year's World Championships and has had some good finishes (though no podiums) on the World Cup circuit. As for the rest of the world, the Brit Bryony Page (who wrote her biology dissertation on the sounds that dinosaurs likely made) is the reigning world champion and has two Olympic medals already- but not gold. China's Zhu Xueying (who finished second to Page in the 2023 World Championships and won golf in Tokyo) and Hu Yicheng (silver in Tokyo) as well as Japan's Hikaru Mori (two-time individual world champion) are among the other favorites.

Men's 10,000 Meter Run: Track and field! Anyway, Grant Fisher has a shot at the podium, but the favorites are Uganda's Joshua Cheptegei (three-time World Champ, World Record holder), Ethiopia's defending Olympic champ Selemon Barega, and Kenya's Nicholas Kipkorier. There are two more Americans in the field, but neither is considered a podium threat.

Men's Skiff: The medal race was cancelled on Thursday when the wind died (doh!). So they'll try again on Friday. The team of Ian Barrows and Hans Henken are fourth heading into the medals race, which counts double. A good finish could put them on the podium. The Spanish, Irish, and New Zealanders were the top three going into the medal race and so by definition need to be considered the likeliest to earn medals.

Women's Lightweight Double Sculls: The British team is considered the favorites here, but the American team of Molly Reckford and Michelle Sechser could challenge. Other major podium contenders include the Romanians (who, along with the Brits, were the winners of the semifinal races) and the Kiwis. The Greeks and Irish round out the A final.

Equestrian Team Jumping: Team USA finished the qualification round in second, a bit of a surprise as they weren't considered among the favorites- teams like Sweden, Great Britain, France, and the Dutch were. Those teams are still in the finals, so USA will have to replicate their performance from round one if they are to medal. They'll also have to deal with Germany, who led the qualification round.

Archery Mixed Team: Good news! Team USA are on the opposite side of the bracket from South Korea, so they have a shot if they hold serve against teams that ranked below them. South Korea, of course, is the favorite here, as they always are in archery until proven otherwise. Other teams to watch include Germany, Italy, China, France, and India. Oh, and “Chinese Taipei”, but they have the poor luck of facing Korea first, so....

Men's 50m Freestyle: Caeleb Dressel isn't what he once was, but he's still got as good a chance as anyone in the blink-and-you'll-miss-it craziness of the 50m. Australia's Cameron McEvoy is arguably considered the main favorite, but GB's Ben Proud tied him in the semis. Italian Leonardo DePlano and Cayman Islander Jordan Crooks are also medal threats, and if Crooks gets on a podium he'll be the first for his nation to get a medal.

Men's 200 IM: Time for Leon Marchand again! The French Flying Fish (eh, we're workshopping it) will have to beat out a strong field that includes defending Olympic champ Shun Wang (China), American Carson Foster, the Brit Duncan Scott, and 2024 bronze medalist Alberto Razzetti (Italy). Foster can definitely make the podium and could maybe even threaten Marchand if he has the swim of his life and/or Marchand has a bad swim. I don't think that last bit will happen, but it could!

Men's BMX Racing: To try and predict BMX may be madness, but there are still two Americans alive in the semifinals: Cameron Wood (who finished second in World Cup standings in 2022, but hasn't been able to replicate that since) and Kamren Larsen (4th in World Cup standings this season). Either could get on the podium. Among the favorite are (in no particular order) the Frenchmen: Sylvain Andre, Romain Mahieu, and Joris Daudet- they finished top three in quarterfinals. Australian Izaac Kennedy (reigning World Champion) and GB's Kye Whyte are other names to look out for.

Women's BMX Racing: The USA got two racers into the semifinals: World Championship bronze medalist Daleny Vaughn and three-time world champion and Rio silver medalist Alise Willoughby. Those in the USA may also know Willoughby from the Toyota commercials about her and her husband, Australian Sam Willoughby- Sam was once a two-time World Champion and London silver medalist before becoming tetraplegic in a training crash in 2016, ending his racing career but beginning his time as his wife's coach. Leaving that tangent behind- both Americans (especially Willoughby) can definitely make the podium, but BMX can be chaotic and I can't hope to predict what could happen. Among the favorites to watch (alongside Willoughby) are GB's Bethany Shriever (defending champ), two-time Olympic champ Mariana Pajon Londono (Colombia), and Australia's Saya Sakakibara (who has finished first or second in the World Cup standings four times).

EXTREMELY UNLIKELY:

Men's Trampoline: USA's Aliaksei Shostak has rarely gotten through qualifications in major events and it's doubtful he'll do so in the loaded Olympic field. The Chinese duo of Yan Langyu and Wang Zisai, as well former world champion Ivan Litvinovich (a Belarussian competing as a neutral), are considered the favorites, but look out for Japan's Ryusei Nishioka and Kiwi Tokyo bronze medalist Dylan Schmidt.

Men's Windsurfing: Noah Lyons is the lone American in the field, and his medal hopes are still alive! However, he's a longshot, having never finished above 55th in a World Championships and only making it into the Olympics by finishing second in a Last Chance Regatta. The more likely medalists are people like the Aussie Grae Morris (who has already secured a place in the finals), Israel's Tom Reuvny (who has already clinched a semifinals spot), New Zealand's Josh Armit (ditto), and the world champion, Italy's Nicolo Renna. Poland's Pawel Tarnowski and the Dutch Luuc Van Opzeeland also have a shot at the podium.

ALL-BUT-IMPOSSIBLE:

Men's Pair Rowing: Team USA is in the B-finals. In theory, this means if they win the B-finals and some really weird stuff happens to several teams in the A-Finals they could, maybe, get a medal. But it ain't happening. As far as those with actual chances at medals, the Sinkovic Brothers from Croatia already have golds in Double Sculls (Rio) and Pairs (2020/21). Great Britain, Romania, Spain, and Ireland all have chances to podium as well in what is considered a deep final.

IMPOSSIBLE:

Men's Lightweight Double Sculls: No USA in the field. The favorites are the Irishmen McCarthy (part of teams that won gold in Tokyo and three World Championships) and Paul O'Donovan (gold in Tokyo, silver in Rio, four World Championships). The Swiss and Italians are their main competition for gold.

Women's 78+kg Judo: No Americans in the field, the favorites include France's Romane Dicko, Israel's Raz Hershko, and Turkiye's Kayra Ozdemir. Japan's Akira Sone and Cuba's Idalys Ortiz could also threaten.

Men's 100+kg Judo: No Americans in the field. The favorite- especially of the crowd- is Teddy Riner, one of the cauldron lighters this year. Although 35 years old, he remains one of the best Judoka alive. Other favorites include world champion Kim Min-Jong (Korea), two-time World bronze medalist Alisher Yusupov (Uzbekistan), and another veteran judoka, Brazil's Rafael Silva. Japanese 22-year-old Tatsuru Saito is also highly regarded and ranks first in the world tour this year.

Men's Team Epee: This is the one team fencing event without a USA team. France, Italy, Tokyo gold medalists Japan, and Hungary are the favorites, but Kazakhstan is a dark horse.

Mixed Doubles Tennis: It's Czechia vs. China in the gold medal match and Canada vs. Netherlands in bronze. Going by pedigree, I'd say the Czechs are favored for the gold and the Dutch are favored for the bronze, but mixed doubles infamously doesn't get much attention/focus outside of the Olympics so there isn't much to go on here.

Women's Singles Tennis Bronze: Iga Swiatek, the world number one, should win this for Poland. But then again, if she won every match she was supposed to she wouldn't be in the bronze medal match, would she?

Mixed Doubles Badminton: It's China (Zheng/Huang) vs. South Korea (Kim/Jeong) for gold, while Japan (Watanabe/Higashino) faces a different South Korean team (Seo/Chae) for bronze. The Chinese are likely favored in the gold match, and the pre-Olympic predictions I saw thought Seo and Chae as being in the gold medal match so I guess I'll say they are favored for the bronze. However, with just one match, anything can happen.

Women's Skiff: Like the men's race, this was rescheduled due to weather. The American duo of Roble and Shea are in the medal race, but are all the way back in 10th and are mathematically eliminated. The French, Dutch, and Swedish are the top three heading to the medal race, with the Norwegians and Germans are sitting in fourth and fifth.

Women's Windsurfing: No Americans remain here, having been eliminated in the early rounds. Like all sailing events, whether this will take place will ultimately be up to the weather. Among those still around who are considered medal favorites include Brit Emma Wilson (a bronze medalist in Tokyo)- who has already clinched a finals spot- as well as Israeli Sharon Kantor and Italian Marta Maggetti (who have already clinched semifinals spots). Frenchwoman Helene Noesmoen and China's Yan Zheng also will threaten for a podium, but have to get through quarterfinals first.

Men's Surfing: Losses Monday meant no Americans got into the quarters, but they DID get to be in Tahiti surfing some gnarly waves, so in a way all of the athletes won. As far as the actual athletes still in, Brazil's Gabe Medina and Aussie Jack Robinson are arguably the favorites and whoever comes out of their semifinal will probably be the favorite for gold, but Kauli Vaast is a local Tahitian representing France who doubtless knows those waves better than anyone. And when there's only four people left, you can't count out the fourth- Peru's Alonso Correa- either.