MockoScience: Finding the Best HPPR Snake Draft Strategies by Simulating Nearly 2 Million Drafts
#MockoScience 2024: FFC Format (HPPR 1 QB) Permutation Results
Have you ever wondered what the best possible snake draft might be or whether strategies like zero RB are actually good? I simulated nearly 2 million drafts to help determine somewhat scientifically what the best draft strategy might be for a normal 1 QB HPPR format.
First, I wanted to say thank you for all of your support over in my original post for MockoSheet, my draft aid and projections database project. I'm working hard to make improvements (already added a few features and updates to the snake draft sheet) and am finishing up some of the data that will get added to the auction draft sheet. If you're interested, keep an eye out for that update post!
TLDR: Best Theoretical Individual Draft Strategies for HPPR:
Format: (12T, 1 QB, 2FLEX, HPPR): Strategy Strength at Each Pick Slot
| Strategy | AVG Total Pts | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| Three Pillars | 1708 | 1748 | 1739 | 1732 | 1706 | 1703 | 1702 | 1697 | 1700 | 1700 | 1694 | 1692 | 1688 |
| Robust RB | 1706 | 1746 | 1738 | 1732 | 1710 | 1704 | 1702 | 1695 | 1696 | 1696 | 1689 | 1685 | 1682 |
| RB Hoarder | 1699 | 1755 | 1738 | 1730 | 1684 | 1683 | 1683 | 1681 | 1687 | 1690 | 1685 | 1686 | 1687 |
| Hero WR | 1698 | 1751 | 1730 | 1725 | 1689 | 1687 | 1685 | 1681 | 1685 | 1690 | 1686 | 1683 | 1686 |
| Dual WRRB | 1698 | 1736 | 1728 | 1722 | 1699 | 1696 | 1693 | 1686 | 1688 | 1688 | 1682 | 1680 | 1678 |
| Mid TE | 1698 | 1736 | 1728 | 1722 | 1699 | 1696 | 1693 | 1686 | 1688 | 1688 | 1682 | 1680 | 1678 |
| Early QB | 1697 | 1746 | 1732 | 1725 | 1686 | 1686 | 1685 | 1682 | 1687 | 1690 | 1684 | 1683 | 1685 |
| Balance | 1697 | 1741 | 1730 | 1725 | 1689 | 1687 | 1685 | 1681 | 1685 | 1690 | 1686 | 1683 | 1686 |
| Early TE | 1697 | 1735 | 1728 | 1723 | 1704 | 1691 | 1695 | 1686 | 1685 | 1687 | 1681 | 1675 | 1671 |
| Hero RB | 1694 | 1725 | 1719 | 1713 | 1699 | 1693 | 1693 | 1685 | 1687 | 1686 | 1679 | 1677 | 1672 |
| Mid QB | 1693 | 1729 | 1722 | 1717 | 1696 | 1689 | 1689 | 1681 | 1681 | 1682 | 1677 | 1676 | 1672 |
| Late TE | 1685 | 1721 | 1713 | 1709 | 1687 | 1686 | 1683 | 1673 | 1674 | 1676 | 1670 | 1668 | 1663 |
| WR Hoarder | 1684 | 1708 | 1707 | 1704 | 1700 | 1691 | 1690 | 1677 | 1675 | 1674 | 1668 | 1663 | 1654 |
| Robust WR | 1680 | 1708 | 1705 | 1702 | 1693 | 1685 | 1685 | 1672 | 1670 | 1669 | 1663 | 1659 | 1650 |
| Late QB | 1676 | 1711 | 1703 | 1699 | 1678 | 1673 | 1673 | 1665 | 1667 | 1668 | 1661 | 1658 | 1653 |
| Zero RB | 1670 | 1695 | 1694 | 1692 | 1687 | 1677 | 1678 | 1665 | 1659 | 1658 | 1653 | 1647 | 1636 |
| Zero RB+ | 1658 | 1680 | 1679 | 1678 | 1675 | 1665 | 1668 | 1654 | 1648 | 1646 | 1642 | 1637 | 1624 |
| All Avg | 1691 | 1728 | 1720 | 1715 | 1693 | 1688 | 1687 | 1679 | 1680 | 1681 | 1675 | 1672 | 1669 |
Note: the expected average for any given draft in this format is 1650-1700 (excludes K/DST).
###Background--How to Optimize Snake Drafts
This is for the FFC Tournament format (12T HPPR:1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2FLEX/1K/1DST/6BENCH) using ADP from mid July 2024 but should be mostly applicable to any 1 QB HPPR draft.
If you'd like to join the tournament and haven't yet, head over to the FFC discord as I think there are still some spots open. It's reachable by clicking this subreddit's unofficial discord link.
After I analyzed last year's FFC tournament data (it's in #advanced-analytics on FFC) and comparing the different draft strategies and their results, I wanted to see if it was possible to somewhat optimize a snake draft based on projections and ADP alone. Unlike auction drafts which can be optimized using linear programming--I'll get back to this in another post--snake drafts are heavily dependent on luck, pick slot, and ADP. Therefore, how do you calculate what's optimal? What are the theoretical best 10 rounds that any pick slot can draft and what strategies are the best?
###Methods All of the simulated data comes from combined pooled projections taken from my Mocko project. These that have gone through a weighted average and scaling process with scores calculated based on league settings (FFC in this case).
ADP is taken directly from Sleeper and real mocks that I've exported ADP from to get as accurate an idea of player draft ranges (ADP, Min pick, Max Pick). Sometimes due to wacky drafts, the range can be surprisingly large for some players which is definitely illustrated in some of the high roll results (See: Jalen Hurts specifically).
The script works by identifying all possible permutations in rounds 1 through 10 and simulating 10 separate drafts for that permutation in each pick slot. The chosen pick slot will always choose the highest projected available player for that position (easy example: if the permutation for the first round is RB and CMC is available, CMC is always chosen) meaning the chosen pick slot is drafting as optimally as possible while the other slots are drafting based on team need and ADP ranges. There are 16,128 permutations (would be more, but I eliminated QB/TE from RD1 since none fall in the ADP range). Each permutation fits under one of 169 full strategies such as RB,TE,QB,WR,RB,RB,WR,RB,RB,RB = RB Hoarder / Early QB / Early TE / Balance. These are defined more thoroughly in the sheets. In total, 1,935,360 simulated drafts were performed. Also, while 10 players were included in the permutation, only the players with the highest scores are included in the team score.
###Limitations to get these out of the way:
- Scripts don't draft like humans. Human drafters make way more mistakes, have favorites, etc. that will cause crazy things to happen in any given draft. I'm not capable or smart enough to account for all of that here.
- The ADP min/max range has a large influence on the results. While I pulled from as many "good" drafts as I could for the ADP ranges used, some players have unrealistically high ranges such as Jalen Hurts. Consider getting Hurts at any spot past RD3 an extreme high roll.
- Projections are theoretical and not indicative of the final best strategies 1:1. While the 2023 data showed there was some strong overlap, you have to expect these to be about 30% off.
- This is specific to the FFC format, which while a common HPPR format, isn't universal. PPR strategies are definitely going to be more WR focused (I'll be share these soon). If your league format isn't 12T, I'd suggest looking at which players were targeted the most and try to grab them when you can while adjusting for your league size.
- Definitions for strategies were slightly arbitrary with most based around Pick 1. Definitions were consistent except for pick 12. Thanks to my friend Esquire for helping me work these out and providing new ideas to include like Hero WR.
- This isn't peer reviewed, except for the peers that did review this for fun, so it's likely I made some mistakes somewhere.
#Data Summary All Picks--Includes ADP ranges used. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTCoOPOjBO76ZWpwBh88Xj4R4QG-IJeVsKhBgrSqVsO8k0OTh3G8v-yIq36SxfnYr2D8c25Lc6DcleU/pubhtml
Sheet Notes: Strategy Summary--All strategy scores All Picks Table--Contains all 12 pick slots strategy results sorted by average. All Picks Best Drafts--A list of the best draft of the 187 strategies for each pick slot. Unique All Picks Player Frequencies--A list of unique players and the frequency at which they were chosen during the simulations in each round. All Picks Player Frequencies--The combined list of every player picked.
To reiterate: There were 10x drafts performed with each permutation and only the highest of the 10 is shown as an example but all 10 were included in the average/stdev. Strategies with higher STDEVs are likely due to a fluctuating ability to pull off the best version of the strategy consistently. Lower STDEV means the strategy is likely very easily reproduced given normal drafting habits. Some strategies have very low counts while others contain a lot of qualifying drafts. Generally, higher draft counts with higher average scores will be consistently good and easier to pull off.
###Strategy Summary Picks 1-3 were heavily rewarded for getting CMC if available with Pick 1 managing the highest possible scoring draft of the 1,935,360 drafts simulated. 1849 points is about 11 more ppg expected per week than the typical draft which is a large amount of projected advantage. The best drafts in this range frequently required Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts to fall further than expected, but if you are in this range and lucky, capitalize on it! Some other notes outside of early QB. In general, RB strategies tend to provide the best team scores--at least in hppr. If you're a new drafter and want to maximize your chances at a good draft, I'd recommend Three Pillars (WR/RB/QB) and referencing a good example draft.
Pick 1-3: Hoard RBs, potentially get a hero WR, grab Kelce early or wait until RDs 5 to 8 for Njoku/Engram/Kittle. If CMC magically falls outside of pick 1, act like you're pick 1. If you get Tyreek/CD instead, you may prioritize an extra RB later. Otherwise, it's not strategically different. These picks have the easiest time doing well and can beat the average doing about anything if they draft well.
Pick 4: Zero RB's best slot. If you end up with Tyreek Hill, CD, or even JJ, you can pull off a great zero RB draft. Be careful with your RB timings (Round 5) and probably don't commit to it if Henry falls to you in RD2, but Top WR/Kelce/Hurts/WR/WR/RB/RB/RB could be great here.
Picks 5-7: These picks are in the JJ/Chase/Bijan/Breece range where Hero RB, Zero RB, WR Hoarding seem to be at their strongest. You're in range for great value in round 2 depending on what picks 8-12 do. If you're a WR super fan, you might want to pick in this range.
Picks 8-12: RB Hoarding and early QBs are the name of the game. Breece, Saquon, JT, Kyren are all top options with potential to exceed expectations. Outside of the first 6 picks, Hero WR is potentially the best call depending on if one of the top ones fall. You may notice that this range performs worse on average so to compensate, taking away the high rolls (Best QBs/TEs) from the earlier picks will even the playing field. This also means you may consider taking some players with the highest ceilings in later rounds that may be less certain to perform well.
#Conclusion
Strictly based on these results, it appears that RB heavy drafting is the way to go in HPPR, especially with 4 startable spots for them. My theory is that WR ADP is way up across the board creating the best market for RB heavy drafters that's probably ever existed. On the other hand, this means Zero RB suffers since WR value is much harder to get at most pick slots. Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts provide a numerical advantage in most drafts that shouldn't be overlooked (I can write a whole essay on early QB strats alone as my friends know).
If this was PPR or 3WR/2FLEX, the strategies would likely become a lot more WR focused. In PPR, WR value in the mid rounds typically outpaces RBs by a fair amount. In 2QB/SFLEX, the results are drastically different and the simulation results are heavily predicated on the format.
Hopefully you can all take this data and get an idea of what produces the best numbers results and try out some of the top permutations for your drafts. As always if you have any questions or catch anything off in one the sheets, let me know. Good luck in your drafts!
Posted Aug 5, 2024, 3:00 AM UTC