A Blackfish in a Black River on his way to the Brotherhood (Spoilers Extended)
Background
He returned to Hoster Tully's chair, pulled over the map of the Trident, and flattened it beneath his golden hand. Where would I go, if I were the Blackfish? -AFFC, Jaime VII
While I think the common theory for just where the Blackfish was headed was to meet up with the Brotherhood, I don't think it is often discussed just how close to them he is when he escapes Riverrun.
We find out that after that after Edmure surrenders Riverrun, that the Blackfish was able to escape using the Riverrun Water Gate portcullis:
He did swim," said Edmure, sullenly. He had the same blue eyes as his sister Catelyn, and Jaime saw the same loathing there that he'd once seen in hers. "We raised the portcullis on the Water Gate. Not all the way, just three feet or so. Enough to leave a gap under the water, though the gate still appeared to be closed. My uncle is a strong swimmer. After dark, he pulled himself beneath the spikes."
And he slipped under our boom the same way, no doubt. A moonless night, bored guards, a black fish in a black river floating quietly downstream. If Ruttiger or Yew or any of their men heard a splash, they would put it down to a turtle or a trout. Edmure had waited most of the day before hauling down the direwolf of Stark in token of surrender. In the confusion of the castle changing hands, it had been the next morning before Jaime had been informed that the Blackfish was not amongst the prisoners.
He went to the window and gazed out over the river. It was a bright autumn day, and the sun was shining on the waters. By now the Blackfish could be ten leagues downstream. -AFFC, Jaime VII
If interested: By Siege or Storm, A Look at Attacks on the Great Castles of Westeros & Favorite Castle Defense Features
Riverrun's Location/Brotherhood Territory
If you look at Riverrun's location on a map, you can see that not only is it smack in the middle of a confluence of Rivers (the Tumblestone/Red Fork) but that it is also Brotherhood territory (I would argue that Lady Stoneheart has "de facto" control of most of the region), and that there are numerous quotes that imply that Riverrun is basically "surrounded":
"Your lightning lord's not the only man who knows how to tie a noose. Don't get me started on Lord Beric. He's here, he's there, he's everywhere, but when you send men after him, he melts away like dew. The river lords are helping him, never doubt it. A bloody marcher lord, if you can believe it. One day you hear the man is dead, the next they're saying how he can't be killed." Ser Daven put his wine cup down. "My scouts report fires in the high places at night. Signal fires, they think . . . as if there were a ring of watchers all around us. And there are fires in the villages as well. Some new god . . ."
No, an old one. "Thoros is with Dondarrion, the fat Myrish priest who used to drink with Robert." His golden hand was on the table. Jaime touched it and watched the gold glimmer in the sullen light of the braziers. "We'll deal with Dondarrion if we have to, but the Blackfish must come first. He has to know his cause is hopeless. Have you tried to treat with him?" -AFFC, Jaime V
and not even getting into the likely upcoming Red Wedding 2.0, the Brotherhood seems to have a good understanding of the area as well:
"Look at the sun," she said. "We're going south!" Arya rummaged in her saddlebag for the map, so she could show them. "We should never have left the Trident. See." She unrolled the map on her leg. All of them were looking at her now. "See, there's Riverrun, between the rivers."
"As it happens," said Jack-Be-Lucky, "we know where Riverrun is. Every man o' us." -ASOS, Arya III
~Ten Leagues Downstream
If the Blackfish did indeed head out the Water Gate to the Tumblestone and swam downstream (which would be a likely move at night), then we should follow the flow of the river (the Tumblestone flows into Red Fork). And well I don't think we should hold GRRM to the 10 leagues = ~30 miles/50km (as he admits he doesn't do math) but we should just noted that he has likely made it a good distance north/east of Riverrun.
On the map I linked above, if we look at what is located toward that direction, as the Red Fork/River Road tend to follow each other that way we get towards things like the Inn at the Crossroads (and the unconfirmed but likely location of the Hollow Hill) as well as places such as Pennytree or you can stop and head north to Fairmarket/Oldstones, etc.
If interested: The Grand Riverland Conspiracy
Ryman Frey Riverrun to Fairmarket
While I think the Queen o' Whores (Brotherhood informant) is the one who gave up Ser Ryman's movements after Jaime sent him home, it is worth noting that this happens AFTER the Blackfish escapes into the exact same area (Ryman's forces were on the north side of the Tumblestone):
The two of them were huddled over a map, arguing heatedly, but they broke off when Jaime entered. “Lord Commander,” Rivers said with cold courtesy, but Edwyn blurted out, “My father’s blood is on your hands, ser.”
That took Jaime a bit aback. “How so?”
“You were the one who sent him home, were you not?”
Someone had to. “Has some ill befallen Ser Ryman?”
“Hanged with all his party,” said Walder Rivers. “The outlaws caught them two leagues south of Fairmarket.”
“Dondarrion?”
“Him, or Thoros, or this woman Stoneheart.”
Jaime frowned. Ryman Frey had been a fool, a craven, and a sot, and no one was like to miss him much, least of all his fellow Freys. If Edwyn’s dry eyes were any clue, even his own sons would not mourn him long. **Still … these outlaws are growing bold, if they dare hang Lord Walder’s heir not a day’s ride from the Twins. “**How many men did Ser Ryman have with him?” he asked. -AFFC, Jaime VII
If interested: Lady Stoneheart & Robb's Crown
Hildy at Pennytree (located north of Riverrun)
From u/gsteff's visit the Cushing Library, we find out that GRRM originally had Hildy (whore with Jonos Bracken in ADWD, Jaime I) approach Jaime at Pennytree instead of Brienne:
"Well", she said, "I might. If m'lord don't fancy turnips, might be he'd like a fish. A nice black fish, if you take my meaning".
Note that in the final ADWD version outside Raventree Hall, Jaime had accused Jonos of aiding him/wonders if he is inside with the Blackwoods:
"How would I know? Ask her septon. When your father burned our castle, she decided the gods were punishing us. Now all she does is pray." Jonos had finally gotten his breeches turned the right way round and was lacing them up the front. "What brings you here, my lord? The Blackfish? We heard how he escaped."
"Did you?" Jaime settled on a camp stool. "From the man himself, perchance?"
"Ser Brynden knows better than to come running to me. I am fond of the man, I won't deny that. That won't stop me clapping him in chains if he shows his face near me or mine. He knows I've bent the knee. He should have done the same, but he always was a stubborn one. His brother could have told you that."
"Tytos Blackwood has not bent the knee," Jaime pointed out. "Might the Blackfish seek refuge at Raventree?"
"He might seek it, but to find it he'd need to get past my siege lines, and last I heard he hadn't grown wings. Tytos will be needing refuge himself before much longer. They're down to rats and roots in there. He'll yield before the next full moon."
and Jaime hopes to probe him/the Brotherhood into an attack:
Neither outlaws nor wolves had troubled them on their way to Raventree, so Jaime decided to return by a different route. If the gods were good, he might stumble on the Blackfish, or lure Beric Dondarrion into an unwise attack.
If interested: Friends, Agents and Infiltrators of the Brotherhood without Banners
Final Thoughts
As I mentioned earlier, I think most people agree that the Blackfish will return to the storyline in some way (other theories I believe have him heading to Greywater Watch or to try and free Jeyne/Edmure) and Jaime is constantly bringing him up:
"You have to find him," insisted Emmon Frey.
"He'll be found." Jaime spoke with a certainty he did not feel. "I have hounds and hunters sniffing after him even now." Ser Addam Marbrand was leading the search on the south side of the river, Ser Dermot of the Rainwood on the north. He had considered enlisting the riverlords as well, but Vance and Piper and their ilk were more like to help the Blackfish escape than clap him into fetters. All in all, he was not hopeful. "He may elude us for a time," he said, "but eventually he must surface."
"What if he should try and take my castle back?"
and:
"You have a garrison of two hundred." Too large a garrison, in truth, but Lord Emmon had an anxious disposition. At least he would have no trouble feeding them; the Blackfish had left Riverrun amply provisioned, just as he had claimed. "After the trouble Ser Brynden took to leave us, I doubt that he'll come skulking back." Unless it is at the head of a band of outlaws. He did not doubt that the Blackfish meant to continue the fight.
"This is your seat," Lady Genna told her husband. "It is for you to hold it. If you cannot do that, put it to the torch and run back to the Rock."
and:
When Edmure and the Westerlings departed, four hundred men rode with them; Jaime had doubled the escort again at the last moment. He rode with them a few miles, to talk with Ser Forley Prester. Though he bore a bull's head upon his surcoat and horns upon his helm, Ser Forley could not have been less bovine. He was a short, spare, hard-bitten man. With his pinched nose, bald pate, and grizzled brown beard, he looked more like an innkeep than a knight. "We don't know where the Blackfish is," Jaime reminded him, "but if he can cut Edmure free, he will."
"That will not happen, my lord." Like most innkeeps, Ser Forley was no man's fool. "Scouts and outriders will screen our march, and we'll fortify our camps by night. I have picked ten men to stay with Tully day and night, my best longbowmen. If he should ride so much as a foot off the road, they will loose so many shafts at him that his own mother would take him for a goose."
If interested: Whitesmile Wat: TWOW, Prologue (which will involved Jeyne)
His last goal in the Riverlands is to find the Blackfish:
And he had done his own part here at Riverrun without actually ever taking up arms against the Starks or Tullys. Once he found the Blackfish, he would be free to return to King's Landing, where he belonged.
and:
“My lord, let there be no misunderstanding here. Lord Beric Dondarrion, Thoros of Myr, Sandor Clegane, Brynden Tully, this woman Stoneheart … all these are outlaws and rebels, enemies to the king and all his leal subjects. If I should learn that you or yours are hiding them, protecting them, or assisting them in any way, I will not hesitate to send you your son’s head. I hope you understand that. Understand this as well: I am not Ryman Frey.”
and:
"Pennytree," the lad confirmed.
"We'll camp there for the night." If there were villagers about, they might have knowledge of Ser Brynden or the outlaws. "Lord Jonos made some remark about whose teats they were," he recalled to the Blackwood boy as they rode toward the darkening hills and the last light of the day. "The Brackens call them by one name and the Blackwoods by another." -ADWD, Jaime I
TLDR: The Blackfish swam right out of Riverrun downstream right into prime Brotherhood without Banners territory almost immediately.
Posted Aug 26, 2024, 1:13 PM UTC