Military updates for the week starting June 1st.

1st June: Homs province: SAA captures Arjoun near Qusayr.

2nd June: Aleppo province: Several reports from various sources claiming the SAA is gearing up for an offensive in aleppo, varying claims as to the extent and objectives of the offensive.

3rd June: Hama province: SAA recaptures 3 of the 4 villages in eastern hama lost last week ( mentioned in my report last week): source:SOHR

4th June: Damascus city: SAA advances in Jobar. Source: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/Jun-04/219408-regime-forces-rebels-from-key-damascus-district.ashx#axzz2V2lAuV00

5th June: Homs province: Qusayr falls.

6th June: Golan Heights: Rebels briefly capture border crossing between Syria and Israel before SAA reclaims it. Source :http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4389000,00.html

6th June: Homs province: SAA pushes on to try and capture rest of villages in around Qusayr.

Sources: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/06/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE9530VE20130606

Dabaa village repotedly under SAA control: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/06/qusair-syria-falls-hezbollah-rubble.html

6th June: Aleppo province: Continuing fighting between YPG Kurdish forces and rebels in around the town of Ifrin. The YPG have reportedly taken over several villages leading to the town and set up checkpoints in them. Source: SOHR on same day.

7th June: Aleppo province: YPG reportedly take over the towns of basila and bashmera near Ifrin town. Source: SOHR

7th June: Homs province: SAA pushes on further into the rebel pocket that formed outside of Qusayr after its fall, taking more villages.

Source:http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2013-06-07/rebels-attack-air-base-in-northern-syria

One thing I'd like to say is please do not take my entries at face value. The fog of war is thick in Syria and even the things I'm reporting here week in week out are not 100%. Please do your own research into events as you feel is necessary.

Now I'd like to talk about Aleppo if I may. As indicated by my entry for the 2nd of June and by other reports I'm sure you'll have seen during the week, the talk is that the SAA is going on an offensive in Aleppo.

Firstly the context in which this takes place. Some rebels brigades from Aleppo reportedly pulled out from Aleppo to attempt to reinforce rebels in Qusayr. Whether they succeeded or not is irrelevant now, they either got through and are now trapped in the pocket outside Qusayr or they didn't and were killed/retreated. In both cases it means some positions in Aleppo have been weakened. On top of this fighters were also reportedly drawn from Aleppo to fight against kurdish forces in and around Ifrin, as is mentioned in the some of the above entries.

So the timing of this SAA offensive is possibly linked to the above events. The offensive however is not against the city itself, but the surrounding countryside. More specifically it is being launched from the towns of ''nubbol' and ''baldat al zharaa'': here:http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.368153&lon=37.009420&z=14&m=b with the troops moving northwards to ''dayr jamal'': here:http://wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=36.442690&lon=37.031908&z=14&m=b

After linking up they'll likely push on to relieve mennagh airbase further north still. They'll want to bring the base back into action by repairing the likely damaged runways and hangars. There is also some activity reported south of all this closer to the city itself.

With that done the SAA will have 3 airports around Aleppo, Mennagh in the north, Kiweris in the east (which may need an offensive of it's own yet) and Aleppos main airport in the south. With these they'll have lines of supply, the ability to quickly transport troops and bases to launch airstrikes from, greatly reducing the time needed per sortie.

The next steps are less predictable. The rebels reportedly have 20,000 men in and around Aleppo. I'm not sure how the SAA will want to tackle taking the city itself. Destruction of the city may not be an option the SAA want to take considering it is Syria's largest and the biggest economic hub of the country. But that may be inevitable. Everyone knows how long, difficult and destructive urban combat is. Just look at the battle of Qusayr, now imagine a city where each individual district is the size of Qusayr. Where the rebels have had much longer to dig in, where it's much more urbanized where they have many times the number of troops. The rebels if they start losing can quite easily being to cry of massacres due to the number of civilian casualties there probably will be. The political pressure on the SAA will heap on, the rebels backers could greatly increase weapon deliveries. Talk of foreign intervention could gain momentum again. The fighting could drag well into the winter, slowing everything down. And this is all while the other provinces of Syria remain contested (assuming this offensive takes place anytime soon).

So as you can see there are many many variables and potential difficulties.

On the other hand, if the SAA does launch an offensive on the city itself sometime soon and starts to make some early/quick progress, more and more rebels will be drawn into battle from other provinces. Could this be the SAA's plan? To drawn in and weaken rebel positions elsewhere? And while they're away, hold them to a stalemate in Aleppo, while securing the other provinces then bring to bear the full capacity of their forces once they've consolidated their position in the rest of the country? Could the rebels fall for this? The SAA played a similar though not exactly the same trick last year. During the second rebel offensive to try and capture damascus (we've had 3 now, all have been repelled) the SAA retreated from its positions around the city and made some gestures to suggest it's forces were collapsing. This prompted the rebels to launch their offensive ahead of plan. They advanced too many men too far away from supply lines and the SAA counterattacked killing many of them and basically putting a big dent in their offensive which soon lost momentum. More reading on that here:http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/01/12/syrian-army-changes-its-military.html

The capture of Aleppo by the SAA, given no other major losses in the meantime, would in my opinion effectively end any chance the rebels have of overthrowing the government.

Anyway this is all just speculation on my part, time will soon tell. Watch this space.

Feel free to ask questions as always.