Latest Observation

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Last updated: Tuesday, 12 November — 1:00 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST; 18:00 UTC)

ATCF		1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC)
Current location:		16.9°N 76.5°W
Relative location:		125 km (78 mi) SSE of Kingston, Jamaica
Forward motion:		W (270°) at 4 km/h (2 knots)
Maximum winds:		35 km/h (20 knots)
Minimum pressure:		1007 millibars (29.74 inches)
2-day potential: (through 1PM Thu)	▲	medium (60 percent)
7-day potential: (through 1PM Mon)	▲	high (90 percent)

Outlook discussion

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Last updated: Tuesday, 12 November — 1:00 PM EST (18:00 UTC)

Discussion by Daniel Brown — NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next two to three days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is forecast begin moving slowly northwestward by early next week. Interests across the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system.

Official information

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National Hurricane Center (United States)

Text products

• Tropical Weather Outlook
• Tropical Weather Discussion

Graphical products

Surface analyses

• 18:00 UTC (Most recent)
• 00:00 UTC
• 06:00 UTC
• 12:00 UTC

Outlook graphics

Last updated: Tuesday, 12 November — 1:34 PM EST (17:34 UTC)

• 2-day outlook | Static image
• 7-day outlook | Static image

Meteorological Service of Jamaica

• Homepage

Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

• Homepage (Spanish only)

Radar imagery

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Meteorological Service of Jamaica

Radar imagery from the Meteorological Service of Jamaica is not currently available.

Instituto de Meteorología (Cuba)

• Main radar page (Spanish only)

• Pilón radar (covers Jamaica)

Satellite imagery

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Storm-specific imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / Shortwave Infrared
• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared
• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced Infrared (Dvorak)
• Tropical Tidbits: Water Vapor
• CIMSS: Multiple bands
• RAMMB: Multiple bands
• Navy Research Laboratory: Multiple bands

Regional imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

• Enhanced infrared
• Enhanced mid-level water vapor
• Visible (GeoColor-enhanced)

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CMISS)

• Infrared
• Water vapor (Upper-level)
• Visible

Tropical Tidbits

• Enhanced infrared
• Mid-level Water vapor
• Visible (true color)

Weather Nerds

• Enhanced infrared

• Water vapor

• Visible

Analysis graphics and data

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Wind analyses

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface Temperatures

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Model guidance

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Storm-specific guidance

• Tropical Tidbits
• State University of New York at Albany
• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• Weather Nerds

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS
• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
• Tropical Tidbits: CMC
• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Regional ensemble model guidance

• Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)