Best Actor Winner For 2026

I know this is gonna sound really weird considering we don't have a winner for 2024 as of yet or even predictions of who has a chance to be nominated for 2025, but I have a strong feeling that Tom Cruise will finally win his elusive Oscar for the upcoming Alejandro G. Iñárritu movie. He seems to want to wrap up his final Mission: Impossible movie this year and action blockbuster movies so I have a feeling he wants to go back to dramatic performances like in Jerry Maguire and Magnolia, and Iñárritu consistently brings out the best performances for the actors and actresses in his movies, with all but his first movie Amores Perros getting acting Oscar nominations. I know this is very premature, but does he have a chance to win even though we haven't seen a single thing from this movie yet?