Probability curves for completing your dex

I wrote some matlab code to simulate opening packs until you either have all the cards in a set or have enough pack points to buy all of the remaining cards in the set. I ran it to give curves both for diamond rarity only and for also getting art rares. This does not account for other means of getting cards (which I'm not explicitly mentioning in case the automod removes the post) as there are too many variables there to be worth simulating. You can account for this on your own by knowing that if you are smart and/or lucky with those methods and get rarer cards, you'll likely end up further to the left on the probability curves.

The spikiness on the curves for collecting art rares is due to the number of pack points passing certain thresholds for buying out all remaining cards, so yes the spikiness is expected behavior. As you can see from the remaining cards breakdowns, the biggest roadblocks to success with collecting art rares are pretty much always the 2 star rarity cards, followed by 1 star rarity, so the spikes are located at points where the number of pack points you have is the sum of the prices of some numbers of 2 star and 1 star cards.

Hopefully these help give you all hope if you feel really unlucky with pack pulls, as you can see exactly what's expected behavior and what isn't.