An Elimination-Based Approach to Edgic, S48E1

Hello again!

Last season, one by one, I eliminated one castaway from winner contention each week until only one remained, successfully bringing us to our winner; Rachel!

Based on the very kind comments I got all season long, it's safe to say this experiment was well received, and I'm excited to be back here running the gauntlet one more time for Season 48!

First, some housekeeping/FAQ's:

What is this?

The Elimination-Based Approach (title inspired by u/buffalove91 and the Story-Based Approach) is an edgic exercise attempting to find the winner by looking at who is losing, rather than who is winning. Each week, I will be tasked with eliminating one contestant from winner contention permanently. Doing this, in tandem with the show eliminating people for us, will hopefully get us to our winner before the finale. If players that I have already eliminated are being voted off, that will slow us down. If players I have yet to eliminate are being voted off, that will speed us up. Based on the formula, the earliest we could find our winner is after the tribal council of Episode 9. And if everything goes completely horribly, we could walk into finale with 4 contestants still in play. Last season, we cut it relatively close, determining that Rachel was the only possible winner candidate left by eliminating Teeny after episode 12.

In short, the goal is don't eliminate the eventual winner.

What happens if you eliminate the eventual winner?

I lose! There's no edge of extinction, redemption island, or takesies-backsies here. If I eliminate the person who is our eventual winner, then I have flopped. That's where the stakes of it all come from!

Luckily, I learned a lot of great lessons doing this last season, so I feel confident going into this season, even with a bit of a tricky premiere.

What sort of lessons did you learn last season?

I have learned that there's consistently two things that I look for when deciding to eliminate (or not to eliminate) someone from contention.

#1, and this one is most important to watch out for in these early episodes, legs. For someone to have a potentially winning edit, their edit needs to have legs. A framework built in the first few episodes that could feasibly be used to build a winning story. Some clear narrative thread, unabashedly connected to a particular player, that could snowball into victory. The concept of legs saved Rachel from elimination after being at the bottom of my rankings for a lot of the middle quarter of the season. Even as her stock was dropping, Rachel's premiere episode was just way stronger than the other players she found herself in the doldrums with, which kept her in contention long enough for her edit to start swinging back the other way.

#2, and this will become more important as the season goes on, is what's missing. Even an edit with legs that go all the way up can be completely squashed by having a glaring omission from their story. We ran into this a lot last season. Sierra's edit gets obliterated at the merge, when we do not hear from her at all about the Anika fallout, or why she suddenly becomes okay with throwing Andy under the bus after she just made a huge decision to save him the episode before. Sometimes, the omissions are more subtle, like when we see Gabe mention in camp that he had been crying earlier that day, but we never get a confessional from him on his vulnerable moment, or see the moment at all for that matter.

How does that all apply to this episode?

I'm so glad you asked.

With that, let's get started.

Starting off with Vula, you cannot talk about this episode without talking about Sai, who I'm obviously not eliminating here. Sai's edit may have had a good deal of negativity to it, which to the untrained eye is a drawback, but if anything is certain about New Era edgic, it's that pre-merge negativity is a good thing. (In moderation, Rome.) Sai also sets the record for most confessionals in a single episode here, and thus stays miles away from elimination. Kevin has a huge edit this episode as well, being positioned as the swing in the vote, and despite not having nearly the confessional count of Sai, walks away feeling like the tribe narrator. If Sai is the queen of Vula, Kevin is the king. I will note, however, I am alarmed by Kevin's medical check up and shoulder incident being mostly cut out of the episode. Cedrek has a decent episode, particularly a very strong and well-timed confessional in the intro. Justin I did consider for elimination slightly, as I was really worried how much more focus the episode put on Kevin as the swing over him, but his couple confessionals were really intelligent and savvy, and that's enough to keep him alive for now. Mary I also considered for elimination, as she was the last Vula we were introduced to, but on a rewatch I actually loved the content she got. Makes a huge first impression in our introduction to her with the fire and her bonding with Kevin. Hate how late in the episode it took for us to get to Mary, but not the worst edit on the board.

Civa, in my eyes, was the most balanced tribe of the cast, edit wise. Mitch has a phenomenal start to the season, being the first person we see in his reaction to being cast, the first person we hear from on the mat, and being the voice of reason on the goose chase for the idol. David has VERY strong legs, both in his edit and on his body. He gets a very clear narrative established about being a hero or a villain, and is shown being the life of the party at Civa. And while the trend was broken last season with Anika, I would be a fool to not mention that David does get the golden confessional spot in the intro (after Jeff says "Only one will remain to claim the million dollar prize.) Kyle gets a strong start, failing at the reward challenge, failing to beat Kevin for the supplies, but then socially picking up the pieces and a pair with Kamilla and an alliance with Kamilla, Chrissy, and David. Chrissy gets a mat chat spot, which while probably a dead theory, can't be ignored. We also get to know about her personal background pretty early on at camp, and see her make an alliance later in the episode. Kamilla gets a great introduction, shouldering most of the strategy talk for the tribe, and is battling with Mitch for tribe narrator. Charity clearly has the weakest episode of the tribe, finding herself in danger and barely being visible, but her opening confessional in the intro is exactly the hint of legs we look for in the premiere that can keep someone alive.

While I don't think Lagi will be going to tribal council anytime soon, they will be meeting me now for the first elimination of the season. Joe obviously stays alive here, getting probably the strongest sequence in a seasons intro that I have ever seen. Biggest reaction to getting cast, first confessional, Joe comes out swinging. Later in the episode, Joe has a fantastic moment bonding with Eva, and while I do not love the phrasing of him saying he'll stick with Eva even if it sinks his game, his edit otherwise is phenomenal. Eva has a phenomenal edit as well, I would argue we have a better understanding of who Eva is than anyone else on the cast so far. Thomas hits the ground running, with some great strategic content here, we start off with Lagi seeing Thomas's thoughts on the tribe. Shauhin has a solid episode, I really love his first confessional while he's walking up to the mat chat, and we get his thoughts on the California Girls alliance. Bianca has a very quiet episode, but the little bit that she did get gives us just enough of leg to keep her alive. Thomas and Bianca are gonna be a tight duo, and Bianca specifically references making it to the end in her one confessional, which isn't much, but is good enough for now.

Which leaves us with Star. Star is the last person on the cast that we are introduced to, her first confessional coming at the 37 minute mark, which isn't as bad as Sol's introduction at 53 minutes last season, but still, not good. Star gets a very basic confessional about her thoughts on the tribe, not in a strategic way, but in a camp life way. Which wasn't a bad confessional, but it's a bad FIRST confessional. We don't actually learn anything about Star, we learn about what other people are doing at camp. Stars second confessional comes as she begins to hunt for the idol, which her entire tribe clocks her doing, and is followed up by a confessional from Shauhin explaining that Star has broken Survivor 101. Star's confessionals weren't laughably bad, and if she had gotten a confessional in the intro, she probably stays alive here. To make matters worse, Star is getting this treatment when she is so clearly a huge character. Everything from her in the pre-season shows her as this huge character, only for her to be totally muted in this first episode.

Star, the edit has spoken.