Markets Recover on Cool CPI… 3-12-25 SPY/ ES Futures, and QQQ/ NQ Futures Daily Market Analysis
I have got to say for CPI coming in as a perfect reading for the bulls they did not do a whole lot of anything with it.
Not only did all four metrics come in lower than previous but all four metrics also came in lower than consensus. Now most of the time we would have seen a pretty strong bullish move on this. However, after a quick spike to the upside we saw markets give al the gains back by open. Even more impressive is that it never recovered higher than that spike as we headed into power hour. The question remains will the scenario I laid out yesterday of a relief bounce that sells off now play out?
Fun fact that on average apparently today March 12^(th) is “the bottom.”
In the past we have seen PPI on the following day of CPI actually illicit a much larger and stronger move than CPI itself. This likely is due to how heavily people hedge and IV/ option greeks. I once again expect a sizeable move tomorrow at 830am.
SPY DAILY
We finally got the new demands that the markets almost put in yesterday today. Honestly I am pretty underwhelmed overall by the move here from bulls.
For tomorrow I am looking at a potential move to the upside to retest daily 8/ 200ema resistance at 570.25 tomorrow. IF we close over 570.25 then there is upside potential to 576.
Bears will need to look for a move back down and under 555.75 demand to play out the next bear flag lower. That then gives us a target of 540.3.
SPY LEVELS
Supply- 576
Demand- 540.3 -> 555.75 -> 567.35 -> 567.99 -> 569.72
ES DAILY
As we move over to ES we do have a nice double bottom with a new demand at 5575. To the upside here much like SPY I do have a target of 5742 which would be the daily 8 and 200ema resistance. The daily 8 actually did cross under the 200ema support today.
If the bulls can close over 5772 then I would look for further upside. This daily wick and rejection here honestly while we remain in extreme bear momentum could play into a bigger rejection lower tomorrow. If this is our daily 8ema resistance test then we could max see 5690 tomorrow. That would lead to a major wick and closure at least under 5575 to then play out a leg down to 5402.
ES LEVELS
Supply- 5772
Demand- 5402 -> 5575 -> 5689 -> 5742
QQQ DAILY
Looking at QQQ and SPY its hard to say who is more bullish or bearish. However, I would say that much like on SPY and ES we did not see the great bullish recovery for a bigger bounce that I was looking for. Overall we did not even make it back to 485.96 nor did we get to the daily 8/ 200ema resistance.
I do think we may still physically touch both at 490 before we make our decision on leg down or recovery. If bulls can close over 491.93 then bigger recovery is coming.
Bears will need to minimally hold us under 490 but ideally will close this under 471.48 to then look for a move to 448.68.
QQQ LEVELS
Supply- 491.93
Demand- 448.68 -> 471.48 -> 485.96 -> 487.99
NQ DAILY
Nq also has a nice daily double bottom bounce off 19393. Now again I don’t love the wick to the upside here for continuation higher tomorrow nor do I love from a bull standpoint to long into 8ema resistance when we are in extreme daily bear momentum.
However, I do think we could retest 20219 tomorrow or Friday. Generally speaking if bulls close over 20259 the daily 200ema resistance, then I do see a bigger recovery next week.
If the bears can reject here or even just hold the 200ema resistance before closing under 19393 demand we should be looking at a bigger drop to 18376.
NQ LEVELS
Supply- 20219
Demand- 18376 -> 19393 -> 19953 -> 20017 -> 20111
VX DAILY
While I am underwhelmed by the markets upside push… in general VX did see a decent retrace today. One thing that makes me still bearish is that you can see we remain in a major uptrend here on VX. Realistically even if we break the channel until we close a new lower low we are in an uptrend. In order to break uptrend we need to see a daily close below the 21.8 demand.
With the 8ema support sitting at 22.37 and ES/ Nq sitting under the daily 8ema resistance and markets remaining in extreme bear momentum as you can imagine we are in a place where we just might see a major bounce on VX tomorrow to send the markets on a major move lower.
A VX closure under 21.8 would make me rather bullish.
VIX DAILY
Very similar move here on VIX, however, as you can see our uptrend was more clearly broken today. However, we did not get a new lower low. Again that needs to be a daily close under 23.34 demand/ support. If we see especially a bigger VIX crush day tomorrow under 21.9/ 23.34 then I would be looking for a major upside pump.
If the bears can bounce VIX here and push us back to and eventually over 27.86 supply then our next bear flag leg down is about to start.
DAILY TRADING LOG
What a WILD morning in both the markets and my PNL... a bit over leveraging on my end... need to slow that back down tomorrow for sure...
MFFU-
Big update here... so I talked to customer support and I am on the path to live in the next week or two...
352/353- I am now 4 green days away from being move to live... I will NOT be requesting my payouts come Friday. As I will likely blow the accounts...
360- I am 9 days away now from going live too...
My goal for MFFU will be to trade 3 more days (Thursday, Friday and Monday) and then let this account sit. From there I will trade 8 more days on account 360... once all three accounts are 1 green day from being moved to live I will trade all three together... that will then get me 3 payouts and a 7500 static live account.
FFF-
Bit of a whirlwind today... I needed one day to hit day 7 of 7 for one of my acccounts.. I hit it and got greedy and watched it go red... I fought back big and ended with another massive green day...
3446- Day 7 of 7 completed. I will NOT be trading this account. I will be requesting a huge payout here tonight.
0881/ 9237/ 7947- Day 5 of 7 completed... I need two more green days... I need to certainly slow down on these tomorrow... I over leveraged a bit today and if I was wrong it could had hurt REALLY bad.
As a heads up to everyone IF the next two days are green on FFF I am likely going to take Monday and Tuesday off from trading. Tuesday night is when my payouts will come through. I want a mental rest after a very long green streak and I also do not want to give into temptations of continuing to trade these accounts and wasting my payouts.
Posted Mar 12, 2025, 8:05 PM UTC