Siege of Homs: day 31; major developments

Maps

Yalla Souria June 29th

/u/uptodatepronto's map, July 2nd

General Summary

Major advances over the last few days for the SAA. SAA have now captured Khalid bin Walid mosque, a major symbol for the rebels, here's a news report from the mosque . Observers say that the SAA now controls about 80% of Bab Hood, 60-80% of Khalidiyia (probably closer to the latter).

SAA operations in the countryside continue and the army are preparing for an assault on the western slope of Kreks des Chevaliers, a major rebel GRAD launching site.

This is looking more and more like a victory for the SAA. If the rebels have lost such a significant portion of Khalidiya and Bab Hood, they'll be confined to Quassour which is a less central district and Old Homs, which would then be completely encircled. The regime has now uncovered 6 rebel tunnels, confirmed with photographs, two in Bab Hood and four Khalidiya, these are essential for the rebels to withstand the siege. Unless there are major developments, it wouldn't be surprising to see a total SAA victory being completed. up in mid-August.

Interesting note: A key activist who takes his reports from Al Nusra and the FSA in Homs tweeted to me that he has been told to stop tweeting reports - https://twitter.com/YallaSouriya/status/361495229733421056.

This was his last report he could give me on the situation

Daily Star - Syria army retakes key Homs neighbourhood

BBC - SAA retakes Homs district

Upcoming SAA Tactics

SANA reported and I thought it was interesting - "The commander said the purge operation was carried out through three stages; the first stage was retaking control of the southern part of the neighborhood and blocks overlooking Khalid bin al-Walid Mosque; the second stage was retaking control over Beit al-Alo Park, al-Hafyan roundabout and the surrounding of the Mosque, and the third stage was eliminating the terrorists through the hard strikes of the army."

Rebel counter-tactics

In defense, the rebels have dug in and are fighting to the last man. They have (perhaps now, had) an extensive tunnel system that allows them to resupply. CRITICALLY, in the last few days rebels have started firing Grad missiles indiscriminately at Alawite neighborhoods to sow discord against the SAA and push them to accept a cease-fire. Although there were reports this tactic was working and that the SAA ground assault has slowed in the last few days, recent developments in Khalidiya would disagree.

Monday, July 29th

8:53PM - FSA reports artillery starting on Kreks des Chevaliers township - http://shaam.org/cities/homs/item/55035-

2:22PM - FSA reports heavy artillery and clashes ongoing in Khalidiya presumably outskirts

8:58AM - FSA reports very heavy shelling of Khalidiya

8:14AM - FSA report warplanes bomb besieged neighborhoods

6:21AM - FSA Report Continuation of the campaign of missile and artillery shelling by regime forces on the besieged Homs neighborhoods while clashes continue on several axes of the Khalidiya neighborhood.

Pics and videos

SAA troops advancing in Homs toward Khalid bin Walid mosque

Aerial photos of destruction from drone that rebels brought down