(IMAGES IN POST)

NEW SPC Day 1 Outlook (Posted: 3-15-25 7:47pm CDT / 0100z)

Day 1 Categorical

Day 1 Tornado

🔴 Key Updates & Changes from Previous Outlooks:

• The High Risk has been downgraded to a Moderate Risk, but the threat for strong tornadoes remains high in AL, western GA, and the FL Panhandle.
• Severe storms will continue across AL tonight, spreading into GA & the FL Panhandle.
• A powerful shortwave trough with 100+ kt mid-level winds is moving in, reinforcing severe storm potential.
• Supercells embedded within a larger storm complex remain capable of producing tornadoes.
• Damaging winds and hail are also concerns, especially in the more unstable southern regions.

📜 Official SPC Outlook

SPC AC 160047
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MUCH OF ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

SUMMARY:

Widespread severe convection, including the risk for strong tornadoes, continues this evening.

The severe threat will spread across Alabama into Georgia and the Florida Panhandle overnight.

01z Update:

• A strong shortwave trough over TX/OK is moving toward the lower MS Valley, enhancing storm development.
• A 100+ kt mid-level jet streak will shift into the central Gulf States, strengthening wind shear and storm intensity.
• Embedded supercells & bowing structures are forming within a broad storm shield, capable of strong tornadoes & damaging winds.
• The most unstable air (dew points in the upper 60s) is surging north into AL, allowing severe storms to persist overnight.
• Western GA is expected to see increasing severe potential as the environment destabilizes.
• Large-scale atmospheric support remains highly favorable for tornadoes, particularly with any discrete supercells.
• Hail risk is highest in the more unstable southern areas (southern AL & FL Panhandle).

📌 SPC Day 1 Outlook: SPC Outlook
📌 SPC Tornado Probability Map: SPC Tornado Probabilities

Darrow - 03/16/2025

🌪️ ELI5: What This Means (Science-Based, No Hype)

📝 Change Log from Previous Update:

• High Risk has been downgraded, but the tornado threat is still significant.
• Severe storms will continue overnight into GA & the FL Panhandle.
• Stronger mid-level winds (100+ kt jet) will enhance storm intensity.
• Supercells embedded within a storm complex are still producing tornadoes.

1) Why This is Still a Dangerous Setup

• A strong mid-level jet streak (100+ kt) is entering the region, increasing wind shear and storm intensity.
• A moist, unstable air mass continues to push inland, fueling severe storms.
• Embedded supercells within a larger storm complex are still producing tornadoes.

2) What’s Happening Right Now

• Strong tornadoes remain possible with supercells in AL & western GA.
• Storms are forming into a larger system, increasing the risk of damaging winds.
• The atmosphere remains unstable, allowing severe storms to persist overnight.

3) What to Expect Tonight

• Tornado risk will continue into GA & the FL Panhandle.
• Storms may produce strong winds as they evolve into a squall line.
• Hail remains possible, especially in the southernmost regions.

⏳ Tornado Timing & Breakdown by State

🌪️ Legend:
⛈️💨 = Severe storm w/ damaging winds
💨 = Storms weakening but heavy wind still expected
🌪️ = Most tornado-prone times

🌪️ Alabama (Moderate Risk) – Central Time (CT)

• Storm Initiation: Ongoing severe storms 🌪️ (Active tornadoes reported!)
• Peak Activity: Evening to late night (6 PM - 12 AM) 🌪️ (Strong tornado threat continues!)
• Settling Down: Early morning (after 2 AM) 💨 (Transition to damaging wind threat overnight)

🌪️ Georgia (Moderate Risk) – Eastern Time (ET)

• Storm Initiation: Evening to late night (8 PM - 12 AM) ⛈️💨 (Severe storms moving in!)
• Peak Activity: Late night to early morning (12 AM - 4 AM) 🌪️ (Tornadoes & damaging winds possible!)
• Settling Down: Early morning (after 5 AM) 💨 (Storms weaken as they exit GA)

⛈️ Florida Panhandle (Moderate Risk) – Eastern Time (ET)

• Storm Initiation: Late evening to early night (9 PM - 12 AM) ⛈️💨 (Severe storms arriving!)
• Peak Activity: Late night to early morning (12 AM - 4 AM) 🌪️ (Tornadoes & damaging winds possible!)
• Settling Down: Early morning (after 5 AM) 💨 (Storms moving eastward out of FL Panhandle)