Minecraft Movie's Second Weekend Drop - DISCUSSION

Box Office Theory has recently suggested in their latest predictions post that A Minecraft Movie could potentially gross $75mil this weekend, which would be another great result for the film after the immense $162.8mil it debuted with domestically last weekend. This would additionally prove to be an especially strong hold for what would ordinarily be a more frontloaded performance. Consider that Minecraft is among the biggest games out there, so the majority of its audience probably consists of fans rather than casual moviegoers. If that predicted amount ends up being the real weekend gross, A Minecraft Movie would then have a relatively light drop of about 53.9%.

Here's the list of the second weekend drops for movies that grossed over $100mil in their domestic debut, unadjusted and sorted by least to most decrease percent-wise:

1. Wicked (-27.9%)
2. Top Gun: Maverick (-28.9%)
3. Shrek 2 (-33.2%)
4. Frozen II (-34%)
5. Inside Out 2 (-34.4%)
6. The Super Mario Bros Movie (-36.9%)
7. Spider-Man (-37.8%)
8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (-39.8%)
9. The Jungle Book (-40.4%)
10. Barbie (-42.6%)
11. Wonder Woman (-43.3%)
12. Black Panther (-44.7%)
13. Finding Dory (-46%)
14. Alice in Wonderland (-46%)
15. Toy Story 3 (-46.2%)
16. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (-46.7%)
17. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (-47.6%)
18. Beauty and the Beast (-48.3%)
19. Jurassic World (-49%)
20. Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith (-49.1%)
21. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 (-49.3%)
22. The Avengers (-50.3%)
23. The Batman (-50.4%)
24. Toy Story 4 (-50.6%)
25. It (-51.3%)
26. The Secret Life of Pets (-51.3%)
27. The Dark Knight (-52.5%)
28. Avatar: The Way of Water (-52.8%)
29. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire (-53.1%)
30. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 (-53.3%)
31. Thor: Ragnarok (-53.5%)
32. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (-53.7%)
33. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest (-54%)
34. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (-54%)
35. Deadpool & Wolverine (-54.2%)
36. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (-55.3%)
37. Avengers: Infinity War (-55.5%)
38. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (-55.5%)
39. Captain Marvel (-55.7%)
40. Incredibles 2 (-56%)
41. Shrek the Third (-56.4%)
42. Minions: The Rise of Gru (-56.9%)
43. Deadpool (-57.4%)
44. Minions (-57.4%)
45. Iron Man 3 (-58.4%)
46. Avengers: Endgame (-58.7%)
47. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-58.7%)
48. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (-58.8%)
49. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-59.2%)
50. Jurassic World: Dominion (-59.2%)
51. Avengers: Age of Ultron (-59.4%)
52. Iron Man 2 (-59.4%)
53. Captain America: Civil War (-59.5%)
54. Furious 7 (-59.5%)
55. The Lion King (-60%)
56. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 1 (-60.7%)
57. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (-61.2%)
58. The Dark Knight Rises (-61.4%)
59. Spider-Man 3 (-61.5%)
60. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End (-61.5%)
61. The Hunger Games (-61.6%)
62. Spider-Man: Homecoming (-62.2%)
63. Transformers: Age of Extinction (-63%)
64. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-63.3%)
65. Moana 2 (-63.3%)
66. Man of Steel (-64.6%)
67. Deadpool 2 (-65.4%)
68. X-Men: The Last Stand (-66.9%)
69. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (-67%)
70. Suicide Squad (-67.4%)
71. Spider-Man: No Way Home (-67.5%)
72. Thor: Love & Thunder (-67.7%)
73. Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice (-69.1%)
74. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 (-69.1%)
75. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1 (-69.8%)
76. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (-69.9%)
77. The Twilight Saga: New Moon (-70%)
78. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 (-72%)

While it must be noted that films like Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Wicked experienced such soft decreases due to both being released through different seasonal holiday frames, other films like Top Gun: Maverick and Black Panther didn't necessarily have that advantage to garner those impressive drops. Meanwhile, Avengers: Endgame, which wouldn't be included on a top 20 list for this matter, had consistent 50-60% drops for its first six weekends (with the Memorial Day weekend being an expected exception). And Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2, still retains the title of biggest second weekend drop: 72%. Arguably so, the films that managed to have their top spots on the list shared positive WOM, which A Minecraft Movie apparently has enough of. On the other hand, the films left near the bottom of the list generally trended with considerably weaker WOM. A handful of these films also opened on a weekday, so that is an important factor that would definitely affect their second weekend performances.

I personally predicted a drop of -57.6% for A Minecraft Movie on the official thread, although that might change due to the great momentum the film has since built.

So how much do you see A Minecraft Movie dropping this weekend?