I asked Microsoft Copilot to predict the July Bar Exam topics, based on historical trends, examiner preferences, and recent testing patterns. I also asked for a comparison vs popular predictors. Here's what it came up with - what do you think of these predictions?

BTW I also asked the AI to grade my practice essays, point out my strengths and weaknesses, suggest ways for me to improve my grades, and write its version of a perfect-scoring essay. FWIW it was very helpful.

Predictions for the July 2025 California Bar Exam Essay Subjects

Predicting the essay subjects for the California Bar Exam requires analyzing historical trends, examiner preferences, and recent testing patterns. While the examiners aim to keep the test unpredictable, certain subjects appear more frequently than others.

Most Likely Subjects & Sub-Topics

Based on historical frequency and recent trends, the following subjects are highly likely to appear:

1. Professional Responsibility

• Duty of Competence & Confidentiality
• Conflicts of Interest (Attorney-Client & Third Parties)
• Advertising & Solicitation Rules
• Unauthorized Practice of Law
• Duties to the Court & Opposing Counsel
• Fee Agreements & Contingency Fees

Reasoning: Professional Responsibility is tested on nearly every exam, either as a standalone essay or as a crossover with another subject.

2. Civil Procedure

• California vs. Federal Distinctions
• Personal & Subject Matter Jurisdiction
• Venue & Forum Non Conveniens
• Joinder of Claims & Parties
• Res Judicata & Collateral Estoppel
• Discovery Rules & Sanctions

Reasoning: Civil Procedure is a foundational subject that appears frequently, often with California-specific distinctions.

3. Contracts

• Formation (Offer, Acceptance, Consideration)
• Statute of Frauds
• Parol Evidence Rule
• Breach & Remedies (Expectation, Reliance, Restitution)
• Third-Party Beneficiaries & Assignments
• UCC vs. Common Law Differences

Reasoning: Contracts is a core subject that appears regularly, often paired with Remedies.

4. Wills & Trusts

• Intestate Succession
• Will Formalities & Holographic Wills
• Undue Influence & Fraud
• Trust Creation & Trustee Duties
• Revocation & Ademption
• California-specific Probate Code Rules

Reasoning: Wills & Trusts often rotate with Community Property and appear frequently.

5. Evidence

• Hearsay & Exceptions
• Relevance & Character Evidence
• Privileges (Attorney-Client, Spousal, Doctor-Patient)
• Impeachment & Witness Competency
• California vs. Federal Distinctions
• Best Evidence Rule

Reasoning: Evidence is a staple subject, sometimes tested with California distinctions.

Possible Subjects

These subjects have been tested less frequently but could appear:

6. Criminal Law/Criminal Procedure

• Homicide (Degrees & Defenses)
• Search & Seizure (Fourth Amendment)
• Miranda Rights & Confessions
• Double Jeopardy
• California-specific Criminal Procedure Rules

7. Real Property

• Landlord-Tenant Law
• Easements & Covenants
• Takings Clause & Eminent Domain
• Zoning & Land Use Regulations
• Adverse Possession

8. Remedies

• Legal vs. Equitable Remedies
• Specific Performance
• Injunctions & Defenses
• Restitution & Unjust Enrichment
• Compensatory & Punitive Damages

9. Torts

• Negligence & Strict Liability
• Defamation & Privacy Torts
• Products Liability
• Intentional Torts (Battery, Assault, False Imprisonment)
• California-specific Tort Rules

Less Likely Subjects

While these subjects are tested, they appear less frequently:

• Community Property – Often alternates with Wills & Trusts.
• Business Associations (Corporations, Partnership, Agency) – Tested occasionally.
• California Civil Procedure – Rare but possible.

Comparison with Other Reliable Predictors

Several bar exam preparation services provide predictions based on historical data:

Cal Bar Bible Predictions

• Most Likely: Professional Responsibility, Contracts, Civil Procedure, Wills/Trusts, Evidence.
• Possible: Criminal Law, Real Property, Remedies, Torts.
• Less Likely: Community Property, Business Associations.

JD Advising Predictions

• Most Likely: Professional Responsibility, Civil Procedure, Contracts, Evidence, Constitutional Law.
• Possible: Criminal Law, Real Property, Remedies.
• Less Likely: Community Property, Business Associations.

Comparison & Differences

• My predictions closely align with Cal Bar Bible and JD Advising.
• Key Differences:
  • I prioritize Wills & Trusts over Community Property, based on recent testing patterns.
  • I include Remedies as a strong possibility, given its frequent crossover with Contracts and Torts.
  • I exclude Constitutional Law, which has appeared less frequently in recent years.