25M, when do cold sores normally flare?

I've been having this tingling sensation around my lips for a couple days (currently on the end of a bug) but it's the lips side of thing that's worrying me at the moment. I've always had drier lips than usual as my kidneys aren't functioning properly, causing water retention not to work...

TL;DR, I've normally been safe with sex and I don't think it'd be hsv, so curious if the cold sores come out at all? That said I do have an auto immune disease (hypothyroidism) which can be a trigger?