What did it really cost me to ride 600,000 plus miles and owning 17 motorcycles

I just had Gemini AI analyze my motorcycle riding adventures from 1995 until present. I wanted to know what it really cost me riding 600,000 plus miles on 17 different motorcycles I paid an average of $18,000 cash for each. I asked it to analyze the fact I stayed in the cheapest motels always, insurance, lost investment opportunity costs of all this money, depreciation, repairs etc…On the lost investment opportunity costs I asked it assuming being invested in an S&P 500 ETF or equivalent from 1995 to 2025.

Below is what Gemini AI came up with. $6,257,190 was the real approximate cost.

This is an ambitious and fun thought experiment! Let's break down the total financial cost of your 25 years and 600,000 miles of motorcycling. This will require some estimations and averaging over a long period. Timeline: 1995 to 2025 (30 years, not 25 - if you started in 1995 and it's currently 2025). I will use 30 years for the investment opportunity calculation. Assumptions & Calculations:

1. Motorcycle Purchases:

• First motorcycle: $14,000
• Number of subsequent motorcycles: 16
• Average cost of subsequent motorcycles: $18,000
• Cost of subsequent motorcycles: $18,000 * 16 = $288,000
• Total Purchase Cost: $14,000 + $288,000 = $302,000

2. Depreciation:

• This is tricky for 17 motorcycles over 30 years. Motorcycles typically lose 50-70% of their value over 10 years, depending on make, model, and especially mileage. Since you drove 600,000 miles across 17 bikes, that's roughly 35,000 miles per bike on average, which is high.
• Let's assume an average depreciation of 70% of the purchase price over their lifespan with you due to high mileage and eventual sale/trade-in.
• Total Depreciation: $302,000 * 0.70 = $211,400

3. Maintenance & Repairs:

• Motorcycle maintenance costs vary greatly, but a good rule of thumb is $0.05 to $0.15 per mile, especially for high mileage and over 600,000 miles. This includes oil changes, tires, brakes, chain/belt, and unexpected repairs.
• Let's use an average of $0.10 per mile to account for consistent use and potential for major repairs over such a long period.
• Total Maintenance & Repairs: 600,000 miles * $0.10/mile = $60,000

4. Fuel Costs:

• Average motorcycle MPG varies, but a Heritage Softail Classic gets ~47 MPG. Over 30 years, you've likely ridden various bikes. Let's assume an average of 45 MPG across your fleet.
• Total gallons consumed: 600,000 miles / 45 MPG = 13,333.33 gallons.
• Average gas price since 1995: This has fluctuated wildly. Let's use a conservative average of $3.00 per gallon over 30 years, considering lower prices in the 90s/early 2000s and higher prices more recently.
• Total Fuel Cost: 13,333.33 gallons * $3.00/gallon = $40,000

5. Insurance:

• Average motorcycle insurance can be $500-$1,500 per year. Let's average $800 per year.
• Total years of insurance: 30 years (1995-2025).
• Total Insurance Cost: 30 years * $800/year = $24,000

6. Lost Investment Opportunity Cost (The Big One):

• You spent $302,000 on motorcycles over 30 years. For simplicity, we'll treat this as if you invested the money instead of buying the bikes. This is a simplification as the purchases were staggered, but it gives an upper bound on the opportunity cost.
• S&P 500 Average Annual Return since 1995 (to 2024/2025): Approximately 10.4% per year (compounded, before inflation adjustment, based on officialdata.org and other sources).
• If you had invested the initial $14,000 in 1995 for 30 years:
  • $14,000 * (1 + 0.104)^{30} = $14,000 * 19.38 = $271,320
• For the subsequent 16 motorcycles (averaging $18,000 each), we need to consider them purchased over time. Let's simplify and assume an average of one bike every ~1.875 years ($288,000 / 16 bikes = $18,000 / avg cost per year for bike).
  • This is very complex to calculate precisely for each staggered purchase. A simpler, though less precise, method is to average the money tied up and apply the return.
  • Let's consider the average amount of capital tied up over the 30 years. A more robust way to model this is to treat each $18,000 purchase as a "loss" from your investment portfolio at the time of purchase. However, for a quick estimate, let's consider the total capital spent ($302,000) and the average period it was invested if not spent.
  • A more accurate way to view the opportunity cost is the cumulative growth of all funds if they were invested from the moment they were available.
  • Let's assume for simplicity, that the average dollar spent on a motorcycle was "uninvested" for an average of 15 years. This is a crude simplification for 17 motorcycles bought over 30 years.
  • Average "uninvested" capital for the $288,000: $288,000 over approximately 28.125 years (30 years - 1.875 years for first one). This is a tricky calculation without knowing exact purchase dates.
  • Alternative (Simpler) Opportunity Cost Calculation: The most direct way to consider the opportunity cost for the $302,000 spent is to imagine you had this capital from the start and invested it all in 1995.
    • If you had $302,000 invested in 1995 at 10.4% for 30 years:
      • $302,000 * (1 + 0.104)^{30} = $302,000 * 19.38 = $5,852,760
    • This is the total future value. The lost opportunity cost is this future value minus the original principal spent: $5,852,760 - $302,000 = $5,550,760.
    • Important Caveat: This assumes you had all $302,000 liquid in 1995 to invest, which is unlikely. If you earned the money over time and then spent it, the opportunity cost would be lower, as later investments would have less time to compound. This is an upper bound estimate.

7. Gear:

• Helmets, jackets, gloves, boots, rain gear, etc. This is ongoing. Let's budget $200 per year for replacement and new gear.
• Total Gear Cost: 30 years * $200/year = $6,000

8. Low-Cost Motels:

• You drove 600,000 miles. If you average 300 miles per day while touring, that's 2,000 days on the road (600,000 / 300).
• Low-cost motels: Let's assume an average of $70 per night (this would have been lower in 1990s, higher now).
• Total Motel Cost: 2,000 nights * $70/night = $140,000
  • Self-correction: 600,000 miles is a lot, but it doesn't mean all of it was touring requiring overnight stays. Many miles are likely day trips or commuting. Let's assume you spent approximately 1/3 of your miles on trips requiring overnight stays. So, 200,000 miles on trips. If average trip day is 300 miles, that's 667 nights.
  • Revised Total Motel Cost: 667 nights * $70/night = $46,690 (This feels more realistic for "only stayed in low cost motels" over such a period).

9. Cheap Meals:

• If you had 667 nights on the road, that's at least 667 days for meals. "As cheap as possible" could mean $15-$25 per day, averaging $20.
• Total Meal Cost (on trips): 667 days * $20/day = $13,340

10. Registration & Other Fees:

• Annual registration, inspections (if applicable). Let's use $100 per year.
• Total Registration/Fees: 30 years * $100/year = $3,000 Grand Total Financial Cost Breakdown:
• Motorcycle Purchases: $302,000
• Depreciation (Estimated): $211,400
• Maintenance & Repairs: $60,000
• Fuel Costs: $40,000
• Insurance: $24,000
• Lost Investment Opportunity Cost: $5,550,760
• Gear: $6,000
• Low-Cost Motels (Estimated Trip Nights): $46,690
• Cheap Meals (Estimated Trip Days): $13,340
• Registration & Other Fees: $3,000 TOTAL ESTIMATED FINANCIAL COST: $302,000 + $211,400 + $60,000 + $40,000 + $24,000 + $5,550,760 + $6,000 + $46,690 + $13,340 + $3,000 = $6,257,190 Conclusion: Based on these assumptions, the total financial cost of your 30 years of motorcycling, including the significant impact of lost investment opportunity, is estimated to be around $6.26 million. Crucial Caveats:
• Lost Investment Opportunity: This is by far the largest factor. The calculation assumes you had all the money available upfront in 1995 to invest, which is highly unlikely. In reality, you spent money gradually over 30 years. If you had saved and invested that money as you earned it, the opportunity cost would still be massive, but likely somewhat lower than this upper-bound figure. This highlights the power of compound interest.
• Estimates: All figures (depreciation, maintenance per mile, fuel cost average, motel/food averages over 30 years, and especially the proportion of touring miles) are estimates. Real-world costs could vary.
• Value of Experience: This calculation only reflects financial cost. It doesn't account for the invaluable experiences, freedom, joy, and memories gained from 600,000 miles on two wheels. For many riders, that experience is priceless.