Testing

Chaotic Diamondbacks Games:

Wins after having a 90%+ chance of losing:

  1. 10-6 vs Cubs on March 30 (96.6%)
    • Down 6-2, scored 8 runs in the bottom of the 8th
  2. 7-5 vs Yankees on April 1 (91.6%)
    • Down 4-2, scored 5 runs in the top of the 8th
  3. 5-4 vs Brewers on April 12 (99.6%)
    • Down 4-0 in the bottom of the 9th with 1 out and the bases empty
  4. 11-10 at Braves on June 5 (99.9%)
    • Down 10-4 going into the top of the 9th
  5. 8-7 vs Padres on June 14 (98.8%)
    • Down 7-3 going into the bottom of the 9th

Losses after erasing a deficit with a 90%+ chance of losing:

  1. 4-3 (10 innings) at Dodgers on May 20 (92.8%)
    • Down 1-0 with 1 out in the 9th, then up 3-1 going into the bottom of the 10th
  2. 6-5 at Cardinals on May 24 (94.7%)
    • Down 4-1, scored 4 in the top of the 8th, but allowed 2 in the bottom of the 8th

Losses after having a 90%+ chance of winning:

  1. 7-4 (10 innings) vs Rays on April 24 (91.6%)
    • Blew 4-1 lead, also up 4-3 with 1 out in the 9th and no one on
  2. 14-12 vs Rockies on May 17 (98.2%)
    • Up 11-6 going into the 6th
  3. 9-6 vs Pirates on May 27 (98.6%)
    • Up 6-0 going into the 6th

Wins after losing a lead with a 90%+ chance of winning:

  1. 11-9 (10 innings) at Phillies on May 4 (98.2%)
    • Up 7-1 in the 4th, also up 8-6 with 2 outs in the 9th and no runners on, but recover in extra innings
  2. 8-4 (11 innings) vs Mariners on June 9 (99.9%)
    • Up 4-0 with 2 outs in the top of the 9th and no one on and blow the lead, but win with a walk off grand slam

Games with a 90%+ chance of losing that turned into a 90%+ chance of winning, that turned into a loss:

  1. 13-11 LOSS at Cubs on April 18 (99.4% to lose, then 95.9% to win)
    • 2-1 going into the bottom of the 7th, Cubs score 5, then DBacks score 10, then Cubs score 6
  2. 8-7 LOSS (10 innings) vs Braves on April 26 (95.1% to lose, then 90.7% to win)
    • Up 6-2 in the 6th, then down 7-6 with 2 outs in the 9th
  3. 14-11 LOSS vs Dodgers on May 9 (93.6% to lose, then 97.6% to win)
    • Down 8-3 in the 4th, come back to take the lead 11-8 going into the 9th, then allow 6-run 9th inning

Honorable mentions:

  1. 11-7 LOSS vs Nationals on May 31
    • 0 IP 8 ER for Pfaadt, 10 runs allowed in the top of the 1st, down 11-0 going into the 4th, only ended up losing by 4

TOTAL: Of the 70 games the Diamondbacks have played this year, FIFTEEN have involved at least one blown lead with at least a 90% chance of winning. Of these 15, EIGHT games featured blown leads with a 98% chance or better to win the game

Posted Jun 15, 2025, 9:14 AM UTC

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