Realistic valuation compared to SpaceX

SpaceX valuation $350B-$425B (from Pre-IPO market place trades) of which starlink is attributed 65+ percentage.

If we separate starlink and take just launch business, it's ~$120B valuation.

Launch revenue is ~$4.2B and total revenue ~$13B+ (Starlink revenue is ~$7B-$8B)

For $4.2B, revenue $120B valuation puts it as P/S ration of 30.

Now, Rocket Lab's lunch total revenue from last quarter is $120M+ of which $35M+ is launch revenue. SPB mentioned in several interviews neutron launch will cost $55M and they want to be in a baseline state to be launching 2 per month ($110M per month = $330M per quarter = 1.3B per year).

Let's say electron continues to bring in revenue at ~$40M per quarter => $160M per year. Also, let's say other products and services (satellites, communications etc) bring in revenue similar range as today (~$80M per quarter => $320M per year)

Adding all up, total revenue = $1.7B.

If we go with same 30 P/S ratio as SpaceX, it'll be 1.7 * 30 = $51B valuation.

SPB keeps saying major TAM ($320B according to him) is in applications space.

SpaceX is way ahead in,
* Application with Starlink
* Dragon Crew capsule (let's say with Artemis and other programs, crewed missions will grow and Rocket Lab will want to have a share of it)
* Starship

Rocket Lab
* Neutron - even if test launch is successful this year, it'll take at least a year or two to be launching Neutron's regularly)
* No plans yet for crewed missions (I think SpaceX took like ~4 years to build Dragon)
* No plans yet for any applications.

I'm just saying it's a long way for Rocket Lab to be hitting $50B-$100B market cap.