The 2025 New Jersey governor's race is highly competitive, with six major Democrats vying to succeed Phil Murphy. Leading the pack is Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a centrist focused on affordability and infrastructure, followed by fellow moderates Steven Fulop and Josh Gottheimer, both of whom bring strong fundraising and executive experience.   
  
The liberal wing features Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, who’s gained attention for his activism, Sean Spiller, a progressive labor leader, and Steve Sweeney, a former Senate President with deep ties to the party's traditional base. Despite Sherrill's lead in early polls, a large percentage of voters remain undecided.  
  
On the Republican side, Jack Ciattarelli leads with strong polling numbers and the endorsement of Donald Trump, positioning himself as a tough-on-crime candidate looking to reverse progressive reforms.  
  
The GOP sees opportunity: Trump narrowed his loss in NJ from nearly 16 points in 2020 to under 6 points in 2024, flipping several counties and improving with Latino voters. These trends suggest meaningful political shifts in the region, especially in suburban and working-class areas.   
  
In New York State, the Democratic margin shrank from 23 points in 2020 to just 12 points in 2024, mirroring NJ’s trajectory. Suburban shifts on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley, combined with Latino voter movement and rural gains for Republicans, point to a more competitive landscape. Looking ahead to 2026, New York Democrats may face real challenges in both states if GOP turnout remains high and Democratic enthusiasm continues to wane.  
  


New Jersey's Governor Race Will Make New York Dems Nervous