When I last posted the day before the Robotaxi “launch” that featured only 10-20 vehicles, supervised drivers in the passenger seat and teleoperators on standby, I listed a bunch of reasons why I felt TSLA would drop in the “next few weeks”:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/qtmovulCSg

Although I didn’t foresee the absolutely regarded retail pump the day after the launch, I did what anyone with balls should do:

I increased my position even more.  My $60K put position is now a nearly $72K put position.  I cashed out of my July puts and loaded up on August puts.

Why did I do this?  One of my catalysts was that Elon would antagonize TACO again.  This has played out exactly as I expected and then some.  An “America Party” now means Elon is TACO’s enemy.  This is insanely bad for all of Elon’s companies, from TSLA to SpaceX to X.ai and everything else.

Now that Elon has gone nuclear, not only will equity values of all his companies plummet, but Elon will likely have to sell more TSLA shares to fund his new political party.

I expect a big payoff for my August puts now that TSLA is without any meaningful positive catalysts until after earnings on July 23 (at least).

Between now and then, more and more people will realize:

1.  How devastating the Big Beautiful Bill will be to TSLA’s 2026 cashflows with the $7,500 EV tax credit expiring and the seemingly instant death of regulatory credit sales.  TSLA may lose money on a FCF basis as early as next quarter but almost certainly in 2026.

2.  Elon and TACO are both loose cannons and can pop off at the mouth over a hurt ego at any moment.  Tweets trigger the algos.  THIS WILL BE A CONSTANT OVERHANG FOR TSLA GOING FORWARD.  Momentum will be very difficult to ignite now that Elon has pissed off most of America.

3.  The true launch of Robotaxi with no teleoperators/supervised drivers will take MUCH longer than most of the Cult followers think.  Each state (including TX) will have different bars for TSLA to clear in order to operate at scale.  Those bars just got higher with Elon starting The America Party.  Given that TSLA is only a Level 2 ADAS technology, there’s a lot of trial and error before they can operate at scale.  One accident and ensuing bad PR, will send the stock plummeting.

4.  Optimus won’t be a popular product (if ever) until TSLA can have the robots operating at much more human levels (movement, comprehension, performative actions, etc.).  The Asians are way ahead on robot technology, the same way they are now way ahead on EV manufacturing/quality.

For all those that say “believe it or not, just buy calls”, TSLA is now down ~17% YTD.  The S&P 500 is up 7% and even the pathetic Russell 2000 is up ~1% YTD.

So please, by all means, keep telling me I’m stupid and that I don’t know what I’m doing.   Keep buying your calls even though deep down you know you are just burning your money due to the fact you are in a CULT.

I’ll keep shorting every nonsensical rally that you regards trigger as TSLA continues its overall downward trend back towards 150-200.




$60K on TSLA Puts…Upped it to $72K