Will Ayanokoji Lose ???

There is something I want to talk about

The possivle defeat of Ayanokoji Kiyotaka by horikita or koenji or both, or through the class battles in general

From the beginning of the novel until today, Ayanokoji has always been far superior to all other characters by a significant margin. His victories over his opponents are no longer shocking or surprising they have become a daily routine. So instead of waiting to see if he wins, which we already know, we started anticipating how he would crush his opponents

Then cameY2V6, where Ayanokoji revealed his intention to leave horikita's class to create a competitive environment between the classes, an environment in which he would participate personally. He even said he wants to experience defeat, not by throwing the match, but by giving it his all and still losing, just to feel the bitterness of a true loss

At that point, readers entered an endless loop of doubt, sarcasm, and disbelief. Some believed he would lose but only due to plot convenience. Others assumed he would lose on purpose. And some even suggested he would lose due to emotions

From this pov, I want to say this :
Just because Ayanokoji explicitly said he wants to taste defeat, and just because the author is building a context for that to happen, doesn't mean it will actually happen

One of the most relevant examples is Mikey from Tokyo Revengers (non manga readers, there's spoilers!!)

Mikey is the strongest character in his series. Since the start of the story, multiple characters have said that defeating Mikey is necessary to resolve the plot. This line is repeated in every arc. The author even prepared all the conditions for it, making Mikey the final villain, and giving Takemichi combat skills and even the ability to see the near future, making him capable of fighting Mikey

As a reader, you become fully convinced that Mikey must lose

What happened ? Mikey was never defeated. The story resolved itself, ended, and Mikey remained undefeated—still on top, without a single loss that damaged his character.

Similarly, just because Kinugasa introduced the idea of Ayanokoji’s defeat into the story and hinted at it doesn't mean it will actually happen. Don't forget that he made us believing for multiple volumes that Ayanokoji would transfer to Ichinose’s class, only to surprise us with Arisu’s expulsion and Ayanokoji moving to her class instead

Let me add a personal hunch

The title of a chapter from Y3V1 was The Defeat of Ayanokoji Kiyotaka—a title that I think is extremely important and more appropriate for the volume in which Ayanokoji actually loses. I thought we would not see it until the final volumes, but Kinugasa used it up early

To sum up, We should not see Ayanokoji’s defeat as a 90% guaranteed outcome. It remains at a 50/50 possibility, no more, no less

That 50% chance of koji's defeat became realistic especially after Y2V12.5 Before that, we saw Ayanokoji as someone unbeatable. Then came that volume, where Honami manipulated him and trapped him in her plan. He even admitted it himself

You might say it was all part of his plan, but there is no proof unless he says it himself later

Worse, Ayanokoji looked amazed by Honami’s alliance strategy like a fool. An alliance? Seriously? That is not some revolutionary move. Readers already predicted it from Y1V11

Why did this happen ? Two reasons

First, it's arrogance. Ayanokoji had grown too confident, used to breaking people without pushback. He let his guard down and looked like an idiot

Second, plot convenience. The author tried to sell the alliance as some legendary move, which it absolutely was not

So, if Ayanokoji is defeated in the future, it will be either his own fault, because arrogance is humanity’s greatest enemy, or due to plot convenience

Therefore, his defeat is no longer as unthinkable as it once was, and we should not be shocked if it happens

If Ayanokoji does lose, will it be due to bad writing?

That depends on the author. If he is foolish enough to ruin his story even more than it already is, because it has gotten reckless and messy compared to the earlier arcs then yes, he will do it, and I will lose all respect for him in advance

But on the flip side, Kinugasa is still the author of this story. He is likely to have a logical, appropriate, and convincing scenario that fits the plot, just like how he made Arisu’s departure from the school feel logical and did not damage her character

Sorry for the long post, but here is the point

The class battle arc may end without Ayanokoji Kiyotaka losing at all

His defeat is no longer a bizarre or shocking idea after V12.5. Now, it will either make sense or be a convenient plot device

It is a risky bet by the author. All we can do is wait patiently to see the result