Current earnings

• Revenue $94.0B, +10% YoY; diluted EPS $1.57, +12% YoY. June-quarter records for revenue, iPhone, and EPS. Services hit a new all-time high. 
• Product mix highlights: iPhone ~$44.6B (+13%), Mac ~$8.0B (+15%), iPad ~$6.6B (–8%), Services ~$27.4B (+13%). Company noted ~$800M tariff impact in the quarter.

MOAT & Future outlook

• Ecosystem lock-in and brand power. Switching costs are high; services deepen stickiness. Installed base at an all-time high, across products and regions.
• Operational discipline under Tim Cook; steady margins and cash generation fund R&D and buybacks.
• Near term: management signaled healthy momentum with record Services and broad-based growth; headwinds include tariffs and intensifying AI competition.
• 10-year view: I model Apple as a mature, high-quality compounder. I assume EPS grows high-single to low-double digits as Services expands, pricing/mix helps, and buybacks continue, tempered by scale and hardware maturity.

My Assumptions

EPS a bit around TTM to reflect normal variability and buyback tailwind. Haircut growth from the 16% 10-yr EPS trend to 7-12% forward due to sheer scale, smartphone maturity, and competitive/AI/tariff risks, while still giving credit for Services and buybacks. Anchoring P/E near the 22–23× 10ymean, with a band to reflect potential multiple drift. 

Results

As per my calculation on Screenwich, I am getting a fair price (average) of $170.35 which is much lower than the current price of $207.57.

Wide moat, elite execution, sticky ecosystem, price seems high. At 30× earnings, the market already bakes in solid growth. I would want a margin of safety before sizing up. 

Question

Do you think the assumptions make sense? Especially given everything happening with AI, do you think any assumptions should be changed?