To those not worried about their weekly calls…

https://investors.metals.co/static-files/7d60f5b1-b193-4ce7-958b-30e83f6ec3a9

https://investors.metals.co/static-files/2bf3981b-ceb6-4a25-b9ce-fb03aaa0e221

I won’t say the timeline isn’t disappointing, it most certainly is. But to those of you who are interested in this long term, can we talk about the master plan? Everyone has been so concerned with the short term numbers, I feel like we’ve missed how wildly ambitious their gameplan actually is.

There are a few things that were pretty well known. The resource is enormous with very high grade material, margins are excellent, logistics are pretty simple, and scalability looks good.

The things we weren’t expecting is where things get interesting.

First, permitting through DSHMRA requires US flagged production, US flagged transport, US processing or return of materials to US if processed internationally. This is likely the reason for the delay in timeline. I imagine it will be relatively easy to reflag vessels for production and transport, but a processing facility will take a long time and loads of money to bring online. The fact that they are projecting end of ‘27 makes me think something is already in the works for a domestic facility. I’m looking for Korea Zinc or a government department to announce something soon about aid in making this happen.

Next, the scaling and innovating of off and onshore systems. I’m trying to not get to amped up with their solar punk mockups of the future fleet and processing facilities (hits me right in my nerd spot), but the facts are that there will be some next level tech going in to this entire supply chain. We know Allseas is planning on going nuclear within five or so years, it seems like a safe assumption nuclear will play a prominent role in new refining builds too. Regardless, the OPEX they’re projecting for offshore is <$35 per wet ton, onshore is <$100. Give the nodules a conservative value of $270 (I’ve heard upwards of $350) and that’s 50% margins for a fucking mining company!

There’s plenty more to discuss, but the big thing I’m curious about is their MaaS (metal as a service) idea. This is something that seems a bit ahead of its time to me. I think it’s a good idea as a business and for the world, but how likely does anyone think it will be to force a new pricing model onto a commodity market? The only way I see this happening is through robust incentives for a recycling program. I’m not even sure what the economics would look like for that.

Anyway, I want to know what the serious investors think. Piss and moan if you want, but I’m more interested in the long term viability of what they’re proposing. I don’t mind deferring my retirement a couple more years as long as it happens eventually.