Lets Talk HRs Today

Here is what we are looking at today. Let me know who you like

1. Christian Walker vs Alcantara (HOU at MIA)

• Alcantara is struggling: allowing a .311 batting average and 1.4 home runs per nine innings. His velocity is down.
• Walker is locked in: .455 average vs right-handed pitching, 11 home runs, 1.318 OPS in the last 30 days.
• He’s 2-for-2 in his career against Alcantara.
• Park factor is neutral, but Walker doesn't need help.
• One of the best HR bets today. Ladder or alternate HR markets are playable.

2. Willy Adames vs Johan Oviedo (MIL vs PIT)

• Adames has 7 home runs in his last 90 at-bats and a .945 OPS over the last month.
• Oviedo is making his first MLB start since Tommy John surgery. Expect rust, command issues, and a short leash.
• Oviedo throws hittable fastballs and inconsistent breaking balls—Adames excels against both.
• Great matchup with a hot hitter against a vulnerable arm.

3. Kyle Schwarber vs Cade Povich (PHI vs BAL)

• Rookie Cade Povich has a 5.15 ERA and has allowed 11 home runs in 64.2 innings.
• Schwarber surprisingly crushes lefties: .578 slugging vs LHP this season.
• Povich throws a high fastball, Schwarber’s preferred zone.
• Citizens Bank Park plays small, especially to right field.
• Factor in Schwarber’s elite fly ball and barrel rates and this is a strong spot.

4. Pete Alonso

Alonso is in a great position to go deep tonight against Slade Cecconi. Here's why:

• Alonso has 6 home runs in his last 23 games and is heating back up at the plate.
• He’s already 1-for-2 against Cecconi with a 1.500 OPS in that limited sample.
• Cecconi pounds the zone but lacks swing-and-miss stuff, allowing 1.0 HR/9. He struggles especially when he misses inside to right-handed hitters.
• Alonso thrives on middle-in pitches and leads the Mets in barrel rate versus right-handed pitching.
• Citi Field’s left field setup favors Alonso’s pull-side power.
• Even if he doesn’t get Cecconi early, the Guardians bullpen has been vulnerable late.

5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vlad is in a prime spot to go deep tonight:

• Hitting .326 with a .539 SLG over his last 30 games
• Facing Tanner Gordon, a low-strikeout righty with a 1.94 WHIP and 4 HR allowed in 26 IP
• Playing at Coors Field, the most HR-friendly park in MLB
• Vlad’s launch angle and barrel rate are trending up, and he crushes pitchers who live in the zone like Gordon does

6.Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton is in a great spot to go deep tonight, and here’s why:

• He’s hit 9 HR in his last 74 ABs. His power is peaking again.
• Corbin allows 1.3 HR/9 and struggles against right-handed bats (.285 BAA, .460 SLG).
• Stanton thrives on the pitch types Corbin leans on — especially belt-high sinkers and low sliders.
• Globe Life Field plays slightly favorable to right-handed pull power.
• Stanton’s advanced metrics (barrel %, hard hit %) are among the best on the team, and he’s historically torched lefties with average velocity and weak command.