SEZL - Sezzle (19% SI) Buy Now, Pay Later
My last post, back in March, was a company called Hims & Hers. My entire thesis at the time, which was at $27 per share, was that the company was undervalued at the current price, and had a short thesis based on the 30%+ SI. Looking back on the company, it was a massive homerun. Though Sezzle does not have the short interest thesis, as much as HIMS did, the growth is nothing short of remarkable. I will take you through the numbers, the outlook of the company, and why I find tremendous value from the company.
As I begin with why I chose this company, over other players in the space, or other growth stocks in general, I have a few reasons why this company could potentially outpace everyone else.
-The growth of the company. I will get further into the numbers later, but current projections have the company growing at between 60% and 65%, which is about the same as Hims & Hers.
-The valuation of the company. One major argument I bring up with growth stocks is valuation. Even with incredible growth, I still need to see some path to a realistic multiple that this can trade at in 1, 3, 5, 10 years. With the current multiple being at 41x, I find this to be a perfectly acceptable valuation, if not even a bargain.
-Short Interest. With growth stocks, there always is higher than normal short interest. At 18% short interest, this could go fast if the numbers are right.
-Earnings. Earnings are tomorrow, 8/07/2025 AH, so with the drop today, I found immense value. The current projections have them growing at 60%-65% and about $3.43 EPS. With DAVE reporting today, both beating expectations, and raising guidance, I find a strong argument in a beat and raise tomorrow.
Now with a rough outline of why I like the company, we get into the degenerate part of numbers. The reason this company is making tons of money and growing fast is due to you degenerates who use Buy Now, Pay Later platforms like Sezzle to buy that cruise vacation for your girlfriend and her boyfriend, not to mention your Viagra pills off of the Hims website, which you need to do payments for because you work at Wendy's. All that aside, numbers.
Honestly, these numbers don't mean much. If you want to take a look, all yours, but it comes down to growth.
The growth numbers are like when you first are soft, then get hard, then use miscellaneous resources to increase by another few inches; that is the case for Sezzle. I actually first looked at the stock when it was $30/share. The growth was supposed to slow, but the stock price was intriguing. I ended up going to other companies, missing out on over 600% in gains from just 5 months. The estimates have Sezzle at about 68% YoY growth. Just last quarter it was 123%. That would be a huge drop-off in revenue growth if they were to report at 68%, and that is at a 40x multiple guide.
If they beat earnings, maybe hitting 80%+ revenue growth YoY, which I wouldn't find to be crazy, then the multiple and growth numbers could be much lower, possibly propelling this to over $200 in the near future. I have loved this company since first going over their numbers and will continue to love it until the valuation is too high for my liking. My fair value is at 50x, which is $171.50, and if they smash earnings and raise, I will consider 60x-80x multiples.
Disclaimer: Obviously NFA. Also, I always disclose positions. I like transparency with posts, so my current positions are: $134, $140, $141,37, and $141.50. Also, in another company similar, DAVE at $184. Most of my adds were from today alone, and unless the price spikes, will be playing earnings. Unless numbers completely miss, which I doubt, the stock could be on the $200 trajectory. Thank You for reading, and GLTA!
Posted Aug 7, 2025, 12:49 AM UTC