Alt season 18 months post-bitcoin halving?

Discussion

I've posted this before, but what does everyone think of the "Alt season occurs 18 months after Bitcoin halving" that happened the last two cycles in a row? That would mean altcoins should theoretically spike in October 2025 right? Two months from now? October 2025 would be 18 months after April 2024, thus repeating the same cycle of the previous two.

Also, a few people were saying "the trend won't apply anymore, no more alt seasons" but did people say that in both 2016 and 2020 too? Or is this a new sentiment?

  1. First Cycle:

→ Bitcoin halving: November 28, 2012

→ Altseason peak: December 2013

→ Time between: ~13 months

  1. Second Cycle:

→ Bitcoin halving: July 9, 2016

→ Altseason peak: January 2018

→ Time between: ~18 months

  1. Third Cycle:

→ Bitcoin halving: May 11, 2020

→ Altseason peak: November 2021

→ Time between: ~18 months

"This pattern supports the idea that altcoins usually peak 13–18 months after a Bitcoin halving, often near the tail end of the overall bull market."

"If this trend continues, then following the April 19, 2024 halving, the next altseason peak could likely occur October 2025."

Can anyone confirm or deny this information? This is what I've found from my research, I'm absolutely not an expert at all so I'm curious what everyone thinks.

Posted Aug 7, 2025, 12:53 AM UTC

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