Replace 10 y/o AC early with a heat pump?

Hey everyone — I’m in Colorado (Denver area) and trying to decide whether to replace my 10-year-old high-efficiency AC 2.5 ton (Carrier CA13NA030) unit (still working fine) with a equal Bosch IDS Ultra cold climate heat pump.  I have an existing 10 year old Carrier high efficiency furnace that I would not be replacing and keeping as a gas backup.   My interest in replacing has been primarily been driven to take advantage of the tax credit before they expire, reduce my energy cost, reduce my natural gas usage and possibly extend the life of my existing furnace.

I’ve received a quote for $13,100 before incentives, which drops to $7,100 after state and utility rebates, and potentially $4,500 after the (expiring) federal tax credit.

My system is high-efficiency (15.2 SEER2 / 9 HSPF2), and I’d be using it in a dual-fuel setup with my existing gas furnace. I’ve done some modeling and over 10 years, I believe the heat pump could save me ~$4,400 in energy and replacement costs compared to keeping the AC and replacing it in 6 years.

My pro/con list to retrofit

Pros to retrofit:

- Take utility/state advantage of tax credits now,

- Increased energy efficiency in summer and winter (Though not as much as other regions as our natural gas rates are low)

- Avoid any upcoming repairs on the out of warranty AC (as the new system will have a 10 year warranty)

- We have solar in Colorado so our effective utility rate is around $.07 kwh.

Cons

- AC continues to provide reliable service. We have good insulation and our furnace is high efficiency, so our overall therms per month isn't that high in the middle of winter 120/month for 2700 sqft house.

- Upfront cost now vs later (time value of money) plus getting full use out of existing system.  Could replace AC with a better heat pump 5 years out.

- Is replacing a heat pump and not replacing our furnace going to set me up for a more costly replacement down the road or would it likely extend the lifespan of my furnace by reducing wear and tear on the heat exchanger?

Would love to hear from anyone who’s made a similar decision or has insight into pricing trends or questions I’m not thinking about.  With these incentives would you consider replacing early, or should I ride out my current AC and wait? 

Thanks in advance!