How are your Best Actor predictions looking as of now?

Here's how my list is looking thus far

Can win based off narrative and potential performance/campaigning and does not necessarily need their film to win Best Picture

1. George Clooney for Jay Kelly- I feel like Clooney has the best narrative here right now with the film being very connected to him and his own image. There's a lot of interesting angles they can do with this during his campaigning. I'd say he might be the frontrunner right now.

2. Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme- If this film is a box office hit like "A Complete Unknown", I don't think you can overlook it. Will Smith won for a sports biopic not that long ago, and if this is a crowdpleasing film and performance, I can see him winning. I do think the film needs to debut at Telluride though. This film has to draw in some of the foreign voting body for Chalamet to win.

3. Brendan Fraser for Rental Family- I've been a huge Rental Family believer, but I always just kinda figured the supporting actors were going to get in and Fraser would get snubbed in the same vein as DiCaprio in KOTFM, but the trailer really sold me. I kinda figured Fraser would be a one-and-done nominee at the Academy, but I do think he could possibly have win potential depending on how this lineup looks after the films release.

Reliant on their film winning Best Picture to win

4. Jesse Plemmons for Bugonia- I think Plemmons for Bugonia is definitely happening, but I doubt we see a win unless the film wins Best Picture and he's the standout over his co-star Emma Stone. I think there's a very possible pathway for this to happen, but I'm a little less confident than I was a month or two ago.

5. Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another- All of the film reactions I've seen has suggested that Sean Penn is going to be the awards player in this film, but if this film is a BP winner, I think DiCaprio can definitely go along with it. I'm not sure if he's really doing anything new here which is really what I think the Academy is looking for with the next DiCaprio performance they want to award.

Could see them getting nominated, would be surprised at them winning at this point

6. Jeremy Allen White for Sprinsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere- I think it might be a little too early for me to write this off, but I think White getting nominated would be the win here. I feel some people are overestimating the good will he has garnered from TV. It's not a Kieran Culkin situation with him here, and the trailers haven't really indicated to me that he's doing super transformative stuff that Butler did in Elvis and Chalamet did in A Complete Unknown. The concert scenes have caught my eye though. I definitely think he can get nominated if the film is good.

7. Wagner Moura for Secret Agent- I was pretty confident Moura would get in, but I'm a little hesistant now with Clooney and Fraser looking like legit contenders. I still think him getting in is possible.

8. Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine- I expect a Globe nomination at most for this. I do think this might make Johnson more visible with these voting bodies which could do him service if his Scorcese film he is in is a major contender or any of the other auteur-driven films he's been joining the cast of.