Executive Disorder Ukraine Discussion

Just wanted to post about the Ukraine discussion for a touch more granular detail on what’s been happening this year on the military front. While Russia has clawed back to the post Ukrainian counter offensive numbers this year, when Ukraine liberated a huge part of Kharkiv Oblast in the north and Kherson Oblast in the south(including the district capitals of the two areas), the cost has been massive. In hard numbers they went from 27% occupied territory in 2022 when the lines settled and they were pushed out of the capitol, to 18ish% post counteroffensive, and since then they’ve gotten back to about 20ish% occupied territory. The meat assaults have worked in a way, where Russia’s gained about 6,000 square km in the past year, but at over a million casualties over the course of the war, numbers supplied by Ukraine that are likely pretty accurate and good faith. Day to day the lines don’t change much, but in totality there has been Russian advances over the past couple of years. At this point the southern half of the front is pretty static with minor amphibious and land raids happening every now and then with the bulk of the fighting happening in the northeast. It’s important to also know that in the northeast the line is mostly set because this is the last best geographically defensible area that Ukraine has, with mostly flat farm fields to their west, so that’s why this defensive line is the one Russia wants to break, and the one Ukraine puts the bulk of its forces on.

Everything else Robert said during the episode is broadly true, especially with the increase of long range fires of Ukraine, it’s just best to know some key details and keep the geography of the country in your head when thinking about the war.