Tested a first half goals system on Brazilian leagues - 84% strike rate over 315 bets
Been tracking this for 2 seasons now. The key is finding leagues where FH goals are underpriced (Brazil Serie A/B perfect for this). Method: - Track home team's FH goal % at home - Track away team's FH goal % away - If combined % > implied odds probability = bet Example: If combined is 75% (1.33 in decimal), you need odds of 1.34+ to have value. Results: +31% ROI over 315 bets. High volume but it works. I use Betlab.gg to quickly check FH goal patterns and FootyStats for the percentages. The segment analysis in Betlab shows WHEN in the first half goals typically come, which helps avoid late-half dead zones. Anyone else running similar systems? What leagues work for you?
Posted Sep 11, 2025, 4:53 PM UTC
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