DD on $BITF - A Speculative, But Undervalued Company with the Potential to be the Next Big AI/HPC Infrastructure Play
Hello fellow regards,
I am writing to you to inform you on the next best degen ticker for the most restarted regards. No financial advice here buddy, invest at your own risk.
Before we get into Bitfarms (1W +70%, ~$1bn Market Cap) it is important to get some context on the current AI Infrastructure landscape.
- Nebius just struck a $17.4b deal, potentially rising up to $19.4b, with Microsoft to provide dedicated AI infrastructure over the next 5 years. Nebius rose 40% over the last week. Additionally, Q2 Revenue is up 106% quarter over quarter.
- CoreWeave, not my favorite play, but has $30.1b in revenue backlog and contracts with Microsoft, OpenAI, Mistral, and others. CRWV is up 187% since their IPO in March.
- Oracle has signed a $300b deal with OpenAI. Q2 cloud infra revenue is up 52% year over year. Oracle rose 38% over the last week.
This is just the start. There isn’t enough compute to go around, hence the high revenue backlog and exorbitant amounts of CapEx spending.
Now, where does BITF come in? This is supposedly just a BTC mining company. They have a proven capability of running profitable BTC mining data centers – their direct cost per BTC is $48.2k while their revenue per BTC is $98k (an almost 50% margin per BTC).
I want to start by introducing the key risks before getting to my main investment thesis:
- What BITF don’t have currently is commited contracts/backlogs.
- Additionally, there is an execution risk (obtaining power, permits, building cooling, fiber, ensuring reliability, acquiring GPUs or equivalent hardware, hiring skilled staff).
- BITF has diluted shares in the past, but has completed a 4.9m+ share buy back.
So, I want to be clear, this is a speculative play for the most restarted regards. However, I do believe these risks will all be addressed.
Now moving on to my bulll thesis:
They have demonstrated a clear willingness to shift their focus towards AI/HPC infrastructure. I introduce the Panther Creek data center campus in Pennsylvania.
- Pennsylvania is well known to be a haven for data center development. They are home to the PJM Interconnection (covers electricity market for 13 US states), so huge amounts of power at competitive pricing. Pennsylvania also generates tons of natural gas, nuclear and coal. In essence, PA offers abundant, low-cost energy, existing transmission, and favorable permitting as well.
- The Panther Creek DC is expected to have between 350 – 410 MW with full capacity expected to be reach by 2027.
- T5 Data Centers is responsible for the buildout. This is a well reputed company in this space with 3 GW+ managed, 100% uptime since 2012, and 50+ data centers supported.
- In addition, they have secured additional prime data center land (Bitfarms Moses Lake Site) in Washington located in the largest data center cluster on the West Coast.
- Another key point is they have significant access to financing ($230m in total liquidity) to make this high CapEx spend a reality. $8m in monthly FCF generation – this is almost $100m yearly and equivalent to almost a third of revenue.. Furthermore, they have secured $300m in debt from Macquarie (a bank focused on infrastructure finance). Also, they have their future non-core business of BTC mining to support CapEx spending.
- It is a value play – yes, you heard me right. Yes, this stock also went up 70% over the past week. But BITF presents signifcantly lower multiples than comparable peers.
- BITF with 2.9x TEV/Revenue LTM compared to CLSK (6.33x), CRWV (23.59x), IREN (8.65x)
- TEV/Revenue NTM (next 12 months) at 1.65x for BITF compared to CLSK (3.31x), CRWV (9.95x), and IREN (3.36x)
Can BITF 10x? Yes, it can. Can BITF go to bag-holder land? Yes, it can. Invest at your own risk.
Have fun
Regards,
checazzo
Sources: BITF (Q2 Presentation), NBIS (Q2 Presentation), NBIS (MSFT Press Release), CRWV (Q2 Presentation), ORCL (Q2 Press Release), Capital IQ (Multiples)
Screenshot of Position Below:
Posted Sep 12, 2025, 3:27 AM UTC