Number Crunching: HP, Thresholds, and Evasion

Discussion

Overview

When given the option, should a player invest in more HP, higher damage Thresholds, or a higher Evasion? All are valid methods for increasing survivability, but are any mechanically "better"? Is there a "meta" around these mechanics that can inform powerful builds? Or are all three valid optimization paths to pursue? Today, we’ll run the crunchiest of number crunching in an attempt to answer these burning questions.

This is a long one, so let's take a moment to discuss how we will be tackling this problem:

First, we need an effective way of comparing the survivability of certain character builds.
Next, we will need some generic adversary stats, using their attack mod and standard damage rolls for use in our test cases.
Next, we'll create several sample character builds to go against the sample adversaries.
With that data, we can calculate the metrics that will inform our analysis.
Finally, we'll dig into the data to see if any trends pop out.

Survivability

Before digging out the spreadsheets, we should first discuss the concepts of "effective HP" and "survivability".

If we get hit by an adversary and are facing Severe damage, "effective HP" considers all resources at our disposal that can effectively absorb those hits. For the sake of today's analysis, we'll just be considering the obvious: HP and armor slots. But it's worth emphasizing that there are many other ways we could theoretically increase our effective HP: features fueled by Stress or Hope, healing mechanics, short rests, etc. When relevant, I'll use EHP to stand in for "effective HP".

As for "survivability", we ultimately care about a single number: how many attacks does an adversary need to make to defeat us? If we have 10 EHP and take an average of 1EHP per attack, we'll survive 10 attacks. If we have 20 EHP and take an average of .5EHP per attack, we'll survive 40 attacks. All of today's analysis will be built with this in mind.

Adversaries

On to the spreadsheets, all of which can be found HERE

First, we need some sample adversaries to go up against.

The [Adversaries] tab contains all T4 adversaries in the CRB, along with their ATK bonus and standard attack damage as reference. The following tabs will run the numbers on all of these adversaries. For our analysis though, we’ll consider a small sampling of these that span a handful of ATK bonuses and adversary types:

Solo (+8) - Undefeated Champion
Leader (+6) - Arch Necromancer
Bruiser (+4) - Perfected Zombie
Horde (+2) - Zombie Legion
Minion (+2) - 1x Outer Realms Thrall

The [Adv Hit Chances] tab uses the adversary ATK bonuses to calculate their chance to hit certain Evasion targets. For low Evasion scores, the adversary's chance to hit is 100%, since they will never miss. For high Evasion scores, the chance to hit is the minimum of 5% due to crits.

The [Adv Damage] tab uses the adversary's standard attack dice/damage to calculate the chance of doing at least X damage. This can then be used to determine the likelihood that an Adversary’s damage roll exceeds a target Threshold. Shoutout to AnyDice for doing all these messy calculations for me.

Character Builds

Now for our character builds and test cases in the [Test Cases] tab. We'll start with some generic tests (0-15), move on to specific in-game decisions a character may face (16-29), and then finish with some specific character builds (30+):

Test 0: The base case. EHP, Evasion, and Thresholds are all set to 1.
Tests 1-4: HP is adjusted linearly from 3 to 12.
Tests 5-9: Thresholds are adjusted linearly, from 10/20 to 70/80.
Tests 10-15: Evasion is adjusted linearly from 5 to 30.
Tests 16-21: Armor trade-offs between 3 Legendary armors.
Tests 22-25: Level-up trade-offs between HP and Evasion.
Tests 26-29: Ancestry trade-offs between Galapa (Thresholds) and Giant (HP).
Tests 30+: Specific character builds.

Calculations

Before we jump into the analysis, we should briefly touch on the calculations on the last two tabs.

In [EHP Per Attack] we're calculating the average EHP a build will mark every time it is targeted with an attack by a given Adversary. The formula is pretty simple:

[Adversary Hit Chance] x [EHP Per Hit]

We already set up a table for Adversary Hit Chance, so we're just looking up a particular build's Evasion within this table. As for EHP Per Hit, that is its own calculation:

1 + [1x % chance of exceeding Major Threshold] + [1x % chance of exceeding Severe Threshold]

In other words, if a build gets hit, it will always mark 1 EHP. If the damage roll exceeds a build's Major Threshold, the build will mark another 1 EHP. If the damage roll exceeds a build's Severe Threshold, the build will mark yet another 1 EHP. The % chance of exceeding a given Threshold is therefore just a lookup in the [Adv Damage] tab.

Our final calculation is on the [Survivability] tab. As discussed earlier, this is the value we actually care about. We want to know how many times a given Adversary will need to attack a given build to actually defeat it:

[Effective HP] / [EHP per Attack]

We define the Effective HP in each of our builds, and we just defined EHP per Attack above, so this is pretty straightforward.

With all that out of the way, let's move on to the data.

Analysis - General Trends

Let's start with Test 0. Unsurprisingly, if we have no Evasion or Thresholds, we will get hit 100% of the time for our Severe Threshold, marking the maximum 3 EHP any time we are attacked. This also means that our Survivability, at worst, is just our EHP divided by 3.

Moving on to Tests 1-4, we see that varying HP has no impact on the average EHP per Attack (duh). As for Survivability, linearly increasing HP causes it to also increase linearly. In other words, doubling our EHP will double our Survivability. Awesome.

Tests 5-9 is where things start to get interesting. First, we see that relying on Thresholds alone can only ever reduce our EHP from a maximum of 3 to a minimum of 1. This makes sense, since a low Evasion means we'll always get hit, and a hit causes us to mark at minimum 1 EHP. Our survivability will reflect this, with the worst case being a survivability of [EHP/3] and a best case of [EHP]. We also see how the bell curve of a typical damage roll is mirrored in the effectiveness of every additional point invested in Thresholds. The first and last 10 points in our Thresholds do little to reduce the EHP per Attack (and increase our Survivability). In the fat middle of the damage bell curve though, an additional 10 points to our Thresholds is significant, reducing the EHP per Attack by up to 1/3. Of course, this "fat middle" of the damage curve is going to change depending on the Adversary we're facing, so it's hard to say what an optimal Threshold is.

Test #	Test Name	Solo (+8)	Leader (+6)	Bruiser (+4)	Horde (+2)	Minion (+2)
5	Threshold 10/20	4.00	4.02	4.00	4.22	6.00
6	Threshold 25/35	4.41	5.03	4.26	8.98	12.00
7	Threshold 40/50	7.80	9.75	7.07	12.00	12.00
8	Threshold 55/65	11.88	12.00	11.72	12.00	12.00
9	Threshold 70/80	12.00	12.00	12.00	12.00	12.00

Unlike Thresholds, Tests 10-15 show that Evasion can reduce our EHP per Attack to well under 1. In the absence of Thresholds, every meaningful point of Evasion will reduce an Adversary’s chance to hit us by 5%, which reduces EHP per Attack by .15 down to a minimum of .15 EHP per Attack (due to crits).

The numbers get more interesting when we consider the Survivability of Tests 10-15. Survivability does not increase linearly with Evasion. Every additional point of Evasion provides more Survivability than the previous point. And this makes sense if we think about the impact that changes to EHP per Attack have on Survivability. Reducing EHP per Attack from 3.00 to 2.85 reduces EHP per Attack (and increases Survivability) by 5%. Reducing EHP per Attack from .30 to .15 reduces EHP per Attack (and increases Survivability) by 50%. That's significant, to say the least. Even if we ignore Thresholds, a max Evasion build with 123 EHP could theoretically be attacked 80 times [12 EHP / .15 EHP per Attack] before defeat.

Test #	Test Name	Solo (+8)	Leader (+6)	Bruiser (+4)	Horde (+2)	Minion (+2)
10	Evasion 5	4.00	4.00	4.00	4.44	4.21
11	Evasion 10	4.21	4.71	5.33	6.15	5.71
12	Evasion 15	5.71	6.67	8.00	10.00	8.89
13	Evasion 20	8.89	11.43	16.00	26.67	20.00
14	Evasion 25	20.00	40.00	80.00	80.00	80.00
15	Evasion 30	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.00

Analysis - Tradeoffs

Lets get a bit more realistic with our numbers though. Tests 16-21 compare 3 T4 armors, all of which vary in their armor slots, Thresholds, and Evasion bonuses. The data seems to suggest that heavier armor is slightly better against most T4 Adversaries at lower base Evasion scores (10). The impact is pretty minor with heavier hitters though, letting us tank maybe one additional attack on average.

If we run the numbers again assuming a base Evasion of 18 (Ranger with Untouchable), then the lighter armors suddenly jump slightly ahead against many Adversaries. Remember, every additional point of Evasion provides more Survivability than the previous point., making high Evasion quite effective against Adversaries with low ATK bonuses.

Test #	Test Name	Solo (+8)	Leader (+6)	Bruiser (+4)	Horde (+2)	Minion (+2)
16	Low Eva Gambeson	5.65	7.07	6.94	11.36	18.46
17	Low Eva Leather	5.81	7.06	7.07	11.86	17.14
18	Low Eva Full Plate	6.56	7.37	7.58	14.96	16.25
19	High Eva Gambeson	10.16	14.15	16.18	34.08	48.00
20	High Eva Leather	10.04	13.33	15.15	30.84	40.00
21	High Eva Full Plate	10.09	12.73	14.31	32.05	32.50

A similar trend emerges when examining our level up choices in Tests 22-25. At lower base Evasion scores (10), spending level up points on additional HP appears slightly better than investing those points in Evasion, but only when facing strong Adversaries. At higher base Evasion scores (15), or when facing Adversaries with low ATK bonuses, further investing in Evasion pulls ahead. The advantage in either set of scenarios is not exactly significant though. Outside of Hordes and Minions, we're talking about an increase in Survivability of maybe 1-2 additional attacks. But stacking these choices can have a compounding effect.

Test #	Test Name	Solo (+8)	Leader (+6)	Bruiser (+4)	Horde (+2)	Minion (+2)
22	Low Eva Level HP	7.26	8.82	8.84	14.83	21.43
23	Low Eva Level Evasion	6.90	8.57	8.84	15.42	21.82
24	High Eva Level HP	9.86	12.50	13.26	24.10	33.33
25	High Eva Level Evasion	10.04	13.33	15.15	30.84	40.00

Our final trade-off is through ancestries. Galapa gives us a +6 to our Thresholds (assuming max proficiency), while Giant gives us 1 additional HP. Here, the winner is the Galapa against most T4 Adversaries at both low and high base Evasion scores.

Test #	Test Name	Solo (+8)	Leader (+6)	Bruiser (+4)	Horde (+2)	Minion (+2)
26	Low Eva Galapa	6.42	7.92	7.88	17.52	17.14
27	Low Eva Giant	6.29	7.65	7.66	12.85	18.57
28	High Eva Galapa	11.08	14.95	16.88	45.54	40.00
29	High Eva Giant	10.87	14.44	16.42	33.41	43.33

Analysis - Full Builds

We’ve still been making several assumptions in the above analysis: relatively neutral EHP totals, armor, and Evasion scores when not otherwise specified. It’s time for some specific builds.

Let’s start with a monoclassed Ranger looking to maximize Evasion. We’ll assume an EHP of 22 from 10 HP, 6 armor slots from Legendary Gambeson Armor, and 6 Stress that can be used for Conjure Swarm. We’ll also assume an Evasion of [12+1+1+3+3] 20 from our armor, Simiah ancestry, Untouchable, and level up options. Thresholds will be 21/42 from our armor and the +1 we get per level.

Test #	Test Name	Solo (+8)	Leader (+6)	Bruiser (+4)	Horde (+2)	Minion (+2)
30	Mono Ranger	20.70	29.64	35.60	83.30	110.00

Not too shabby, and this excludes additional features like On The Brink and Swift Step that will absolutely improve our survivability quite a bit.

Time for the other end of the spectrum: a monoclassed Stalwart Guardian. We’ll have 11 Evasion, 12 HP, 12 armor, and Thresholds of 41/74. This assumes we have grabbed all subclass cards along with the Vitality, Rise Up, and Valor-Touched domain cards. Naturally, we’re also going with the Galapa/Simiah for our ancestry. Calculating EHP for this build is a bit challenging when we consider Valor-Touched. Looking at our Thresholds though, a conservative assumption will be that we get hit for 1 EHP ⅔ of the time and 2 EHP the other ⅓ of the time. This means with 12 HP, we’ll likely gain back 6 armor. This puts our EHP at [12+12+6] 30.

Test #	Test Name	Solo (+8)	Leader (+6)	Bruiser (+4)	Horde (+2)	Minion (+2)
31	Mono Guardian	23.52	31.78	28.05	50.00	46.15

We’re competitive with the Mono Ranger against Solos, but the Mono Ranger really takes the lead as ATK bonuses drop. Of course, this excludes plenty of defensive features like Unstoppable and Unyielding Armor that would absolutely close that gap quite a bit in actual play.

What about our other Valor class, the Seraph? We’ll try something slightly different and go with Bare Bones over Legendary Full Plate. We also have to consider the at-will healing that the Divine Wielder Seraph gets from Sparing Touch and the restoration domain card. Combined, this adds 14 EHP, all of which will benefit from the Valor-Touched synergy. This puts our EHP at [12+12+14+13] 51.

Test #	Test Name	Solo (+8)	Leader (+6)	Bruiser (+4)	Horde (+2)	Minion (+2)
32	Mono Seraph	33.79	43.17	43.91	100.83	92.73

Let’s do one more monoclass build before we really break things with multiclassing. War Wizard has some interesting mechanics for both boosting Evasion, so let’s lean into that. We can achieve 22 Evasion if we always have 2 Hope available and go with the usual Evasion options. This gives us 10 HP, 10 armor, and Thresholds of 21/42. We also get 10 HP in at-will healing every day from Restoration. In total, our EHP will be [10+10+10] 30.

Test #	Test Name	Solo (+8)	Leader (+6)	Bruiser (+4)	Horde (+2)	Minion (+2)
33	Mono Wizard	36.29	56.58	80.91	340.75	300.00

Bring on the Hordes. Evasions over 20 really start to get nuts against Adversaries with low ATK bonuses. But we’re quite solid against Solos as well. Yes, it’s all reliant on maintaining 2 Hope for that +6 to Evasion, but that should be easy to do against any Adversary that doesn’t steal Hope. ~~Luckily, that’s not a very common feature in T4.~~ Okay, time for us to break things with a multiclass of the Ranger and Druid. Our ancestry will be some Galapa/Simiah cheese to boost both Evasion and Thresholds. We’ll spend our Stress on Beastforming into a Mythic Mighty Strider, which nets us a +5 to Evasion and a 9 Agility (assuming we’ve grabbed Bone-Touched). Combined with Untouchable, this nets us another +5 to Evasion, for a total of [12+1+1+3+5+5] 27. We’ll also use an Earth-based Elemental Incarnation for a +6 to both our thresholds. Combined with our Galapa ancestry, this gives us Thresholds of 33/54 in Legendary Gambeson. We’ll only have 6 armor slots, but… that won’t really matter:

Test #	Test Name	Solo (+8)	Leader (+6)	Bruiser (+4)	Horde (+2)	Minion (+2)
34	Ranger Druid	87.16	202.05	166.61	319.75	320.00

Lower Evasion multiclass builds like the Seraph/Druid can similarly hold their own thanks to some outrageous EHP. It’s possible to have 12 HP, 12 armor slots, 13 Evasion, and Thresholds of 42/71 through a combination of Bare Bones and Beastforming into a Mythic Hybrid of the Mighty Crocodile, Powerful Beast, and Armored Sentry. We’ll have 14 points of healing from Restoration and subclass features. We’ll have ~14 Hope from Prayer Dice, half of which we’ll assume will fuel Conjure Swarm. We’re resistant to physical damage, increasing the likelihood we only take 1EHP when hit. If we trigger Valor-Touched ~75% of the time we mark HP, we’ll likely gain around 20 additional armor slots. This gives us an insane [12+12+14+20+7] 65 EHP:

Test #	Test Name	Solo (+8)	Leader (+6)	Bruiser (+4)	Horde (+2)	Minion (+2)
35	Seraph Druid	59.59	81.12	73.59	130.00	118.18

Conclusions

So what conclusions can we draw from all of this?

Stacking Evasion bonuses can break things.
Multiclassing can be very strong.
Beastform is a pathway to many abilities some consider to be unnatural.

As I mentioned several times though, this analysis ignores many complicating factors. It’s entirely possible I missed some Big Thing™ that changes the outcomes significantly. Feel free to point them out if so. Regardless though, I hope this was educational for those who stuck with me to the end. It certainly was for me.

Additional Reading

Posted Sep 30, 2025, 1:05 PM UTC

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