Week 5 Kicker Projections - Metric Based - by juicykw
One day late, apologies, I've been traveling for work a lot recently and it's cut into my time for this post.
The goal is to provide an extra level of information that can help you make the choice on your kicker for this week and beyond.
The projections are strictly stat based, I do not fudge any numbers, just plug them in and post the data.
I've always felt that the projections for kickers are basically mailed in by most sites. Those projections typically range from 6-7 points. Safe projections, but not realistic. This model is specifically designed to give a wider spread of points, which is typical on a given week. (Week 1 range was 0 to 16).
If anything, I want this to be a platform to ask questions and discuss kickers. I hope you find these helpful for your upcoming week.
Fantasy PPG and Consistency
This chart is a snapshot into the kickers who are the most consistent and score the most points per game.
- Anyone in the top right is above the average at both FPPG and Consistency.
- Top left will show you players who are consistent, but score lower points
- Bottom lefts are just NO
- Bottom right are players who are more volatile but have a higher-than-average PPG.
How the projections work
The baseline is the kicker's Fantasy Points Per Game. For the first 4-week projections I will be using historical FPPG averaged with the current season. Once the season is in full swing in week 5, I will only be using this year's FPPG. Rookies 'historical' FPPG are the average FPPG of all kickers from last year.
Stats incorporated into the projection:
Team/Kicker Stats
- Kicker Fantasy PPG
- Kicker Team Red Zone TD %
- Kicker Team RZ Attempts per game
- Kicker Team XP Attempts per Game
- Kicker Team FG Attempts per Game
- Team Kicking Points per Game
- Kicker Team 4th downs - team goes for it on 4th (new this year)
Opponent/Defense Stats (all 2025 stats).
- Defensive FPPG given up to Kickers per Game
- Defensive RZ TD % (lower % is better)
- Defensive RZ Attempts per Game
- Defensive XP Attempts per Game
- Defensive FG Attempts per Game
- Defensive PPG against per Game
Breakdown of the Chart
- 2025 Opportunity Rank - if their team puts them in situations or plays in a way that gives them opportunities, they will be better ranked (#1 = Best, #32 = Worst)
- 2025 Performance Rank - a ranking that comes from their stats and their ranks within those stats. (#1 = Best, #32 = Worst)
- 2025 Consistency Rank - ranking comes from a volatility calculation week to week. (#1 = consistent, #32=volatile)
- 2025 juicykw Rank - an average of my Opportunity, Performance, and Consistency Ranks above.
- Matchup Rank - How does the defense they are playing typically stack up against Kickers (#1 = Best, #32 = Worst)
- Roster % - I find this EXTREMELY helpful. It helps find players who may be under/over rostered (provided by FantasyPros.com)
Kickers on Bye: Romo, ATL Santos, CHI McManus, GB Boswell, PIT
| Rank | Player | Team | 2025 Opp Rank | 2025 Perf Rank | 2025 Consist Rank | 2025 juicykw Rank | Week 5 Opponent | Matchup Rank | Proj Pts | ROST % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | 4 | 1 | 21 | 6 | NY Jets | 2 | 14.79 | 99.10% |
| 2 | Spencer Shrader | IND | 2 | 5 | 6 | 1 | Las Vegas | 1 | 14.27 | 29.50% |
| 3 | Jason Myers | SEA | 1 | 4 | 11 | 2 | Tampa Bay | 3 | 12.19 | 8.20% |
| 4 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | 6 | 22 | 28 | 19 | Seattle | 9 | 10.84 | 75.50% |
| 5 | Will Reichard | MIN | 15 | 2 | 7 | 4 | Cleveland | 8 | 10.31 | 10.70% |
| 6 | Chad Ryland | ARI | 14 | 10 | 1 | 5 | Tennessee | 4 | 10.28 | 4.00% |
| 7 | Jake Bates | DET | 8 | 16 | 3 | 7 | Cincinnati | 7 | 10.16 | 92.10% |
| 8 | Ka'imi Fairbairn | HOU | 24 | 9 | 17 | 14 | Baltimore | 6 | 9.75 | 55.50% |
| 9 | Matt Prater | BUF | 3 | 7 | 8 | 3 | New England | 11 | 9.75 | 52.50% |
| 10 | Harrison Butker | KC | 7 | 25 | 4 | 10 | Jacksonville | 19 | 9.39 | 76.50% |
| 11 | Nick Folk | NYJ | 25 | 3 | 2 | 9 | Dallas | 10 | 9.24 | 2.10% |
| 12 | Matt Gay | WAS | 16 | 12 | 24 | 16 | LA Chargers | 16 | 9.21 | 20.70% |
| 13 | Joey Slye | TEN | 17 | 8 | 25 | 14 | Arizona | 17 | 8.96 | 8.90% |
| 14 | Tyler Loop | BAL | 10 | 14 | 5 | 8 | Houston | 23 | 8.79 | 69.80% |
| 15 | Joshua Karty | LAR | 8 | 27 | 23 | 21 | San Francisco | 13 | 8.70 | 7.90% |
| 16 | Cam Little | JAC | 5 | 16 | 16 | 11 | Kansas City | 15 | 8.62 | 52.20% |
| 17 | Eddy Pineiro | SF | 18 | 23 | 22 | 24 | LA Rams | 18 | 8.58 | 2.40% |
| 18 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | 13 | 15 | 10 | 12 | Washington | 14 | 8.55 | 96.20% |
| 19 | Jude McAtamney | NYG | 21 | 16 | 32 | 28 | New Orleans | 5 | 7.47 | 0.60% |
| 20 | Jake Elliott | PHI | 22 | 6 | 19 | 13 | Denver | 22 | 7.14 | 70.70% |
| 21 | Daniel Carlson | LV | 28 | 20 | 18 | 26 | Indianapolis | 25 | 6.86 | 13.20% |
| 22 | Wil Lutz | DEN | 23 | 26 | 15 | 25 | Philadelphia | 12 | 6.85 | 35.00% |
| 23 | Blake Grupe | NO | 27 | 28 | 13 | 27 | NY Giants | 20 | 6.57 | 0.80% |
| 24 | Ryan Fitzgerald | CAR | 31 | 30 | 30 | 32 | Miami | 21 | 6.33 | 0.80% |
| 25 | Andy Borregales | NE | 26 | 31 | 20 | 30 | Buffalo | 24 | 5.97 | 0.90% |
| 26 | Riley Patterson | MIA | 29 | 21 | 29 | 31 | Carolina | 26 | 5.18 | 0.60% |
| 27 | Andre Szmyt | CLE | 32 | 32 | 12 | 29 | Minnesota | 27 | 4.87 | 0.60% |
| 28 | Evan McPherson | CIN | 30 | 23 | 9 | 22 | Detroit | 28 | 4.30 | 35.20% |
Posted Oct 1, 2025, 9:09 PM UTC