*A miniscule constituency prepares for its by-election next month.*

Being the only election between the state elections of Bihar and Andhra Pradesh, which, alongside several other local elections, has painted a picture of the **BJP**'s rapid decline, the **Hindutvadis** are eager to pour all their resources into a victory in this constituency. The intensity of their campaign is unprecedented, with Modi and dozens of nationally prominent **BJP** leaders holding rallies as many as a dozen times per day.  
A defeat here would cement the growing belief that the party is collapsing—and deny them a much-needed propaganda victory to revitalize their flagging morale. The local **INC** remains strong, having secured 35% of the vote in the last election and winning a sizeable chunk of the urban vote. Meanwhile, the various bourgeois parties that once dominated the area are threatened by irrelevancy and are likely to crumble under the weight of the **BJP** campaign.  
The odds favor the **BJP**: despite a third of the constituency being Muslim, a fully urban population and the fact that this constituency constitutes just a tenth of a percent of India's population — makes it possible for them to blanket the area with propaganda and demonstrations at minimal cost.  
This is a high-stakes campaign: if the Hindutvadis fail to make a strong showing despite their all-out effort, the consequences will be enormously magnified. Given the constituency's tiny size, the real question isn’t whether we can afford to campaign—but how much we’re willing to invest in it.

Jubilee Hills Campaigning