My ex broke NC 3 times this year but now seems to be moving on, has she truly moved on or is it just distraction?

My ex (fearful-avoidant type) and I dated for about a year before breaking up in Aug 2024. We’ve gone through long stretches of no contact, but every time I’ve held my silence, she eventually reached out again.

1st time (Feb 2025): She called me after a bad dream about me, saying she wanted to make sure I was okay. 2nd time (March): She sent me this cute happy birthday reel 3 weeks in advance before my birthday but didn't wish me anything when my birthday actually came around. •3rd time (Sept): She called again, panicking because her dad found my photo frames and gifts. That was the first time her family ever learned about me. We ended up talking for an hour, catching up about life.

Since that call, it’s been over a month of no contact. She still has my number saved. She hasn’t texted, but she occasionally logs into an online game we used to play which feels like small breadcrumb behaviour.

Recently, though, I found out she’s re-followed an old guy I once had issues with, and also followed another guy’s private/spam account while already following his main. That one hit me hard. It made me wonder if she’s genuinely moving on, or just trying to fill a void.

She was also briefly engaged earlier this year under family pressure, but that engagement has since collapsed. Despite that, she’s never told me about it personally and still hasn’t deleted my number.

I’m at a crossroads, part of me thinks she’s distracting herself with new connections, but another part of me wonders if she’s still emotionally conflicted and suppressing.

For anyone who’s been through something similar: when an ex acts “normal” and starts following or engaging with new people, is that a sign they’ve truly moved on or are they just distracting themselves while still emotionally tied to the past?

And in your experience, do avoidant dumpers ever circle back after this kind of silence?