UFC Rio Picks Prelims + Main Card

Prelims

Saimon Oliveira - Luan Lacerda
Both guys in dire need of a win, I think Oliveira is just a pretty bad fighter overall, Luan Lacerda is the better grappler here. He's way too high of a favorite, i'm probably not betting on it. but the pick is Lacerda by Sub 1.98

Julia Polastri - Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Karolina is a vet, but I think her ship has sailed, 3 years ago I would've picked her, Polastri is a mean fighter, she doesn't mind getting hit, I think she will run through Karolina here. again Polastri is the heavy favorite in this case. pick is Polastri by Decision 1.5

Lucas Rocha - Stewart Nicoll
Nicoll is good wrestler, Lucas has poor takedown defense. But I think Lucas has a huge striking advantage here, I think he will probably get taken down but I think he will work his way back up. its a pick em fight but I think Rocha has the home crowd advantage Rocha by KO is the pick here 3.35

Irina Alekseeva - Beatriz Mesquita
Bia Mesquita is a heavy favorite here, in her UFC debut, amazing grappling, jiu jitsu credentials. Irina is the better striker obviously, will she keep the fight standing? its gonna be a tough call. its women's MMA so anything can happen. Irina is a fun dog play. but im going Mesquita by sub for the pick 1.88

Vitor Petrino - Thomas Petersen
I like Petrino here, Petersen has good wrestling but Petrino looks great ever since moving up. Im going for Petrino by finish here 1.96

Jafel Filho - Clayton Carpenter
Another fight with both fighters coming off a loss, I think Carpenter has better boxing, Jafel better kicks. but I think Carpenter is gonna get it done here his only loss to Ulanbekov by decision. Im going with the underdog Carpenter 2.07

Lucas Almeida - Michael Aswell
We all saw the video of Almeida's weigh in, looked like he showed up with a broken hand. I think Michael has the better boxing, Almeida is tough but I think Michael's sig. strikes volume will win him the fight. going for Michael Aswell for the pick here, probably by decision 2.21

Main Card

Ricardo Ramos - Kaan Ofli
I like Ramos here, he's only 30 years old ut has been around for a long time, Kaan Ofli isn't very good, striking is very mid, he can try to wrestle Ramos here for the boring decision, but I think Ramos is way more dangerous here, along with the home crowd advantage. Going for Ramos by decision 2.7

Jhonata Diniz - Mario Pinto
This is one of those pick em heavyweight fights, Diniz has the better striking credentials. Mario Pinto is more of a feeling out type of striker, but i've been following his career for a long time and I think he could potentially make it far, but he gets hurt alot, got dropped by Austen Lane last fight. in this case im going Diniz by KO 3.05

Vicente Luque - Joel Alvarez
I like Luque but I think ever since the Geoff Neal KO he's been going downhill, Alvarez is a great finisher, only "recent" loss is to Arman in 2022 I think he gets it done in the first or second round, only question is what way he finishes the fight. im gonna go for Joel Alvarez by KO here 2.48

Deiveson Figueiredo - Montel Jackson
Figgy lost his last 2 to Petr Yan (who is one of the very best) and Sandhagen, in the Sandhagen fight Figgy had a bad knee injury. Montel is on a crazy winning streak, but I don't think hes fought the level of opposition like Figgy, Montel's best win being over Daniel Marcos. I think the bookies got it wrong here. I think Figgy wouldn't take this fight if he wasn't fully recovered. Im going with Figgy for the Underdog pick 3.55

Charles Oliveira - Mateusz Gamrot
I think Charles is lucky here because Gamrot is more of a Wrestler. Would it have been Fiziev I would've been more afraid. Charles fought Arman who is a way better wrestler and made it a close fight. Charles is a sub specialist, also no pushover on the striking. I think Charles might surprise Gamrot with the sub attempts. only thing that scares me is knowing if Charles chin recovered but eitherway im going for Do'Bronx by Submission 3.75