Am I risking too much by applying almost all T20 (2 safeties) hoping to just get into 1-2

Essentially that I'm (California student) applying to just Stanford, USC, Ivies, 5 BS/MDs, and UC LA, Davis, Merced, and Berkeley. Not trying to be chanceme, I just want to know if this is a reasonable strategy, just providing context: 1590 SAT, 1520 National Merit, 4.0/4.66, amazing letters of rec, a pretty good common app (not really sure how popular it is, but an 88 lumisource rating), actively working on supplementals, and decent activities for a top college but nothing jaw dropping or will dramatically carry my application.

I understand HYPSM are gonna be huge reaches and the BSMD are also pretty slim chances. However, I have Davis and Merced as safeties, and then I feel I could definitely get into LA and Berkeley. I just want to get into 1 maybe 2 of the non-UCs, because my reasoning is if I get rejected from all 15, I'll just go to LA or Berkeley. I know absolutely nothing is guaranteed, especially with this (maybe recent government administration policies could help) admission system; however, is this strategy reasonable? Like, honestly, applying to 15 colleges like this, is there a chance I could just get rejected from every single one since theyre 3-10% rates.

Essentially, if anyone could share some experiences or insight, I would love that. Again, just hoping that I can get into at least one of the non-Harvard/Yale/Princeton Ivies is all or a BS/MD. Not sure to add other colleges because I feel the UC system is a safe fallback.