Through 8 weeks, Devonta has 4 weeks as a top 20 WR but the other games have been stinkers. Not necessarily the worst thing in the world if you can predict with some accuracy what those games will be. Maybe managers are doing some analysis and plug him into lineups when he's got favorable matchups...

Nope!

Take a quick look at the stats and then we'll highlight the biggest swings in start rates and how his point production changed week over week.

|Week|PPR Pts|Start %|Start Rate +/-|PPR Points +/-|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
||
|1|4.6 (WR78)|86%|\-|\-|
|2|9.3 (WR51)|75%|\-11%|\+4.7|
|3|20 (WR9)|62%|\-13%|\+10.7|
|4|4.9 (WR70)|74%|\+11.9%|\-15.1|
|5|19.4 (WR10)|72%|\-1.4%|\+14.5|
|6|8.9 (WR37)|85%|\+12.9%|\-10.5|
|7|33.3 (WR2)|75%|\-10%|\+24.4|
|8|14.1 (WR20)|98%|\+23%|\-18.9|

Week 1: The Eagles faced the Cowboys, the league's [worst](https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2025/opp.htm) passing defense. Surely the Heisman trophy winner will exploit them. Nope! He finished as the 76th ranked receiver on the week.

Week 3: The faith really starts to dwindle after another sub-par performance in week 2. His start rate drops all the way to 62%. He knows his start rate has dipped, so he puts up 20 points to make you, specifically, pay.

Week 4: OK...looks like he's got his footing now. Start rate jumps 12 percentage points. Oh no. 4.9 points.

Week 6: He bounced back against a stout Denver defense in week 5 with 19.4 points. Start rate increases 12%. Another terrible week -- 8.9 points.

Week 7: Start rate dips 10% -- we're not getting burned again. Devonta goes off! WR2 on the week!

Week 8: Gotta play the potential upside of Devonta. Start rate goes up to nearly 100% with fantasy managers having fewer options due to the bye weeks. But another decline in points to 14.4. This one doesn't hurt quite as bad since we had a long way to fall...WR20 for the week.

Every time Devonta's start rate increases, he scores fewer points. But when his start rate decreases, you piss him off and he scores more points. The secret to being a good Devonta Smith manager is figuring out which direction sentiment is going with him and then employ the Costanza method: [do the opposite](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CizwH_T7pjg).

Devonta Smith is fueled by disrespect. When his start rate decreases, he always scores more points than the previous week. But he always scores fewer when start rate increases. Source: Fantasy Genius